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本刊所載見解反映作者於撰文時的觀點，其他團隊可能觀點各異，或會作出不同的投資決策。閣下投資的價值可能高於或低於初始投資時的水平。本刊所載第三方數據被視為可靠，惟概不保證其準確性。
固定收益投資專家以四大考量因素剖析收益投資者可如何應對當前信貸息差低位，從中發掘投資機遇。（僅提供英文版)
Today’s market participants often lament that credit spreads are too compressed. Indeed, in many cases, spreads — having reached the top percentile in historical tightness across some sectors — may offer little upside potential. However, several disparate factors tend to drive total returns in fixed income and explain why spreads could remain in this lower range for some time.
Focusing too narrowly on spreads and awaiting a mean reversion toward more attractive levels could cause investors waiting on the sidelines to forgo some compelling investment opportunities. Investors should be aware of several key factors that may drive their fixed income returns in the current environment:
1. Spread dispersion
Despite tight spreads across some sectors at the index level, dispersion is still fairly wide in spreads among different sectors and individual issuers. And there’s no shortage of potential drivers of spread volatility, including diverging central bank monetary policy, continued geopolitical conflict, and volatile US fiscal policy. Further dispersion among credit sectors would present more attractive entry points to add risk, in our view.
In fact, certain spread sectors, such as bank loans, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) remain attractive from a longer-term spread perspective. Many of these asset classes can be accessed through either standalone investments or multi-asset credit strategies.
2. Elevated yields
Yields remain near the high end of the range, and look reasonably attractive from a longer-term, historical-percentage basis. And given the relative flatness of the yield curve, fixed income investors don’t need to take on significant duration risk to find attractive yield opportunities. Figure 1 shows that while the historical spread percentile across credit segments ranks at the tightest extremes, yields look much more attractive.
Figure 1
Importantly, one of the single most significant drivers of expected returns for a fixed income portfolio is the starting yield. Figure 2 depicts the ending yield-to-worsts (YTWs), or the lowest potential yield that an issuer can pay on a bond without defaulting, of several fixed income indices on a historical basis. Each dot represents monthly observations of YTW and the Y axes show the corresponding annualized return over the ensuing three years. The blue bars represent the index yield levels as of 31 January 2025. Note the general upward sloping shape of returns versus starting yields.
Figure 2
3. The “risk-off” factor in yields today
When interest rates were low and approaching the zero lower bound, the recessionary risk mitigation of the underlying Treasury rates in credit was relatively low, unless one assumed that interest rates could move into negative territory. In today’s elevated yield backdrop, the underlying Treasury yield can act as more of a potential “shock absorber” through risk-off cycles that move spreads wider.
4. Added value through active management?
Finally, if yield alone isn’t a significant inducement, flexible total return fixed income strategies can toggle risk on and off, depending on the manager’s assessment of relative valuations and return skew. In our view, attractiveness of valuations may continue to diverge across fixed income sectors, creating potential opportunities for dynamic strategies that can take advantage of security or sectoral dislocations.
Given the uncertainty of the current rate cycle — a dynamic compounded by persistent geopolitical risks — we believe a prudent approach to fixed income allocations may be maintaining a benchmark-agnostic approach with flexibility to pursue security- or sector-dislocation-driven opportunities as they arise.
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在未有威靈頓投資管理明確書面批准的情況下，概不可複製或轉載本刊全部或任何部分內容。本文件僅供參考之用，並非任何人士要約或邀請認購威靈頓投資管理（盧森堡）SICAV基金III系列的股份。本文件所載資料不應被視為投資建議，亦非買賣任何股份之推介。基金投資不一定適合所有投資者。所載見解反映作者於撰文時的觀點，可予更改而不作另行通知。投資者於作出投資決定前，務請細閱基金及子基金的產品資料概要、基金招股章程及香港說明文件，以了解詳情（包括風險因素），其他有關文件包括年度及半年度財務報告。
© 2025 Morningstar, Inc。版權所有。本刊所載資訊：(1) 為晨星（Morningstar）專有；(2) 不得複製或分發；及(3) 概不保證屬準確、完整或及時。晨星及其內容提供者概不就使用相關資訊所引致的任何損害或損失負責。基金的Morningstar綜合星號評級（Overall Morningstar Rating）乃基於經風險調整回報，按三年、五年及十年（倘適用）評級的加權平均得出。過去業績並非將來表現的保證。
由威靈頓管理香港有限公司刊發。投資涉及風險。過去業績並不代表將來表現。本文件未經香港證券及期貨事務監察委員會審閱。
