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This is a visual summary of our 2023 Mid-Year Investment Outlook, in which specialists from across our investment platform share insights on the economic and market forces that we expect to influence portfolios for the remainder of this year.
In this series of charts, we explore the implications of global macroeconomic trends, such as continued inflation and a potential return to greater economic cyclicality, for fixed income, alternative, and equity markets.
When the US sneezes, does the world still catch a cold?
The market is currently priced for continued cyclical convergence, which assumes that the historical pattern we’ve seen since the late 1990s will go on.
Discover why we disagree and believe that macroeconomic cycles are likely to be more extreme, frequent, and compressed going forward, creating both risks and opportunities we’re watching closely.
When the US sneezes, does the world still catch a cold?
Despite current market pricing, many of the factors that contributed to macroeconomic convergence over the past three decades may have ended or started to reverse.
Uncover three assumptions from the last few decades that could face challenges going forward and consider the potential effects of growing divergence between countries and central banks and their implications for active investors.
Asia: A growth story with longer-term momentum
While global growth has changed or slowed in many parts of the world, it seems to be accelerating in developing Asia.
Understand why our experts believe that Asia will likely record the world’s strongest growth this year and next, an opportunity active managers could tap into effectively.
Quiet bull market in EM local debt?
Today finds fixed-income markets healing from last year’s strain. This year, to date, most sectors in the bond market have posted positive excess returns relative to duration-equivalent government bonds. Learn more about fixed-income opportunities in 2023 and why we’re arguing for staying flexible, nimble and opportunistic.
For example, understand why, after 13 years of relative underperformance, there’s now a quiet bull market in emerging markets (EM) local debt.
The state of venture capital markets
Global venture market deal activity has fallen almost 65%, from US$188.2 billion in late 2021 to US$67.4 billion in the first quarter of 20231 — the lowest point in nearly a decade.
However, we’ve seen opportunities in the market grow over the past nine months. Discover the reason for this apparent contradiction and learn why we see 2023 as a potentially strong ventage year for private equity.
New market regime, a new environment for global equities?
As investors adapt to a new macroeconomic regime, they may begin to favor US equities with different characteristics than the handful of tech-sector companies that have dominated for the past several years — a period of exceptionally low market breadth.
Dive deeper into the state of equity markets today and discover how higher market breadth could reinforce the case for active management going forward
1Source: Preqin Q1 2023 Venture Capital Update. Data as of 31 March 2023.
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