- Investment Director
Skip to main content
- Funds
- Insights
- Capabilities
- About Us
- My Account
The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
As discussed below, the upcoming “changing of the guard” at the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could have some meaningful investment implications — and not just for Japanese assets — of which global allocators should be mindful.
Kazuo Ueda has been officially nominated to take the helm of Japan’s central bank when the incumbent BOJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, steps down in April 2023. Ueda will be accompanied by two deputy nominees: Shinichi Uchida, the BOJ’s current executive director, and Ryozo Himino, the former chief regulator for the Financial Services Agency (FSA) of Japan.
Ueda’s nomination came as a surprise to many observers after much prior speculation had focused on “Kuroda continuity” candidate Masayoshi Amamiya. While the Amamiya headlines provoked brief, dramatic near-term moves in the Japanese yen, the longer-term impacts of a new trio navigating the BOJ’s nine-member board could be greater and more far-reaching, especially given that Japan has been an anchor of sorts for the global fixed income markets for some time now.
Ueda and his deputies portray an overall impression of balance, with the soon-to-be BOJ governor poised to take the central bank’s reins and perhaps mimic the stance of Christine Lagarde, who began her tenure at the European Central Bank (ECB) with a promise to be neither a hawk nor a dove, but rather an “owl” (i.e., wise and data-dependent). Time will tell. Also important will be:
The sustainability of Japan’s wage growth and inflation will be key indicators to monitor into the second half of 2023. We think the improving data momentum will persist and be the main trigger for further BOJ policy adjustments, including potential removal of both yield curve control (YCC) and negative-interest-rate policy (NIRP).
With markets counting down to Ueda’s assumption of the BOJ governorship in April, we believe there’s a reasonable likelihood of further increases in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields in the period ahead. If so, that could have implications for global risk assets, given the BOJ’s status as a perceived “last resort” provider of global liquidity.
While both the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) have been longtime adherents to NIRP, the Swiss franc (CHF) has reversed course and strengthened versus a broad basket of developed market currencies since the SNB dropped NIRP in mid-2022. Similarly, the BOJ’s potential abandonment of NIRP at some point could prompt a positive turn in market sentiment toward the Japanese currency in the coming months, considering that both Switzerland and Japan are among the world’s largest net-creditor nations.
We believe the tightening in global liquidity conditions that began last year represents a tectonic shift in the investment environment. So far, however, the BOJ has bucked the policy tightening trend pursued by other major central banks by being forced to aggressively step up its JGB purchases in defense of its self-imposed yield cap for long-term debt (Figure 1). While the BOJ’s asset purchases have continued to materially influence both global interest rates and risk assets in the short term, we believe its YCC policy is ultimately unsustainable.
Any BOJ policy changes from here would likely increase global rate and currency volatility, particularly any policy actions that might affect global capital flows — for example, anything related to Japanese investors’ overseas fixed income allocations and/or foreign investment into Japan.
Experts
Rate relief: Fed cuts half point, but says “economy is strong”
Continue readingURL References
Related Insights
Stay up to date with the latest market insights and our point of view.
What is “the economic cycle,” anyway?
See why the relationship between asset prices and the economic cycle is more complex than you might think, why a US recession is unlikely, and what a more dovish Fed could mean for the US and global markets.
Take it “ease”-y
Tim Antonelli, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy – Insurance and Portfolio Manager, explains why he thinks insurers should consider locking in current yields and sticking with global equity exposure.
Can central bank independence survive?
Can central bank independence survive? Macro Strategist John Butler discusses the challenges faced by central banks in an increasingly fraught political environment and how investors should adjust.
Sahm rules are meant to be broken
Fed easing is finally here and fundamentals remain favorable. But what about that election? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
Rate relief: Fed cuts half point, but says “economy is strong”
Our expert explains the Fed's bold rate cut and some key takeaways for investors.
Time to capitalise on the evolving role of bonds?
We outline why we think the new economic era is elevating the role of bonds as a source of attractive and stable income, downside protection and portfolio diversification.
Walking a mile in Fed Chair Powell’s shoes
A slow roll on rate cuts by the Fed could frustrate markets and lead to more volatility ahead of the September FOMC meeting. See our take on what to expect for the next few weeks.
Still waiting…Fed wants more data before cutting policy rates
Our expert dives into Fed policy following the July FMOC meeting.
When the Fed sneezes, the ECB… cuts rates regardless?
Since the late 1990s, when the US cycle turned, the rest of the world generally followed, with a lag. However, the new economic era is likely to result in greater cyclical divergence between countries and the need for different central bank responses. How should investors think about the age of economic divergence?
June FOMC meeting: May disinflation is welcome, but is not enough for a rate cut
Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant discusses what June's FOMC meeting tells us about the US Federal Reserve’s latest thinking on interest-rate cuts.
URL References
Related Insights
The real issue on rate cuts? Keep your eyes on the dot (plot)
Keep your eyes on the Fed's 2025 dot plot. The real story is where policy rates are headed, not just the next rate cut.
By
Brij Khurana