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Volatility Inflation Credit Article Interest rates Fixed income Income Outlook Bank liquidity

2023 Mid-year Bond Market Outlook

Credit market outlook: Expect greater opportunities in back half of 2023

Rob Burn, CFA, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
June 2023
2024-06-30
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Mid Year Outlook Designs

The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.

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In my full-year Outlook for 2023, I advocated for a defensive credit market risk posture, given my forecast for the global economy to enter a recession this year. While that remains my base case, I continue to see several attractive investment opportunities across fixed income sectors and expect there to be better entry points for allocators to take on additional credit risk in the second half of the year.

Global recession risks remain elevated

The leading economic and financial market indicators I monitor are continuing to signal a high probability of substantial weakening in the global economy in the coming quarters. I believe more restrictive central bank monetary policy over the past year or so, particularly in the US, likely contributed to recent banking-sector stresses and could be the transmission mechanism that eventually leads to lower corporate earnings and an increase in corporate defaults.

While the end of interest-rate-hiking cycles in the US and elsewhere may be near, engineering a soft economic landing will prove quite challenging, in my view, and I don’t think global central banks will be able to pivot to accommodative monetary policy anytime soon amid persistent inflationary pressures. Broadly speaking, financial conditions had already been tightening prior to the March deposit run that plagued the US banking system, which will likely make matters worse via tougher bank lending standards.

Despite these known perils and headwinds, credit spreads across many fixed income sectors have recently compressed to within their historical median levels, which may not adequately compensate investors return-wise for the much-anticipated economic slowdown — hence, my overall defensive stance on credit market risk at this time.

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Banking sector stresses could devolve into a crisis

Concerns around potential contagion across the US banking sector are still lingering, although I believe the worst of the liquidity issues have been addressed through the swift, decisive actions taken by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Nonetheless, policymakers may have not yet done quite enough to stem the risk of further bank-deposit outflows (e.g., guarantee uninsured deposits). Accordingly, consumer and investor confidence in the system remain somewhat shaky.

However, not every US bank faces the same liquidity problems, nor is every bank's depositor base equally concentrated in narrow, interest-rate-sensitive sectors. I therefore expect significant performance dispersion across US banks through the rest of 2023. In my view, large, systemically important banks are likely to fare better in this environment. Their businesses and deposit bases are generally more diverse and subject to stricter capital requirements than those of smaller banks. In contrast, banks with a large share of uninsured deposits, high geographic or customer concentration, and sizable unrealized losses in their securities portfolios are at greater risk going forward, in my judgment.

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Market volatility to spawn relative-value sector opportunities

Credit spreads across most fixed income sectors have widened only modestly since the banking crisis unfolded, and with high-yield spreads now around median levels relative to history, I believe it is still too early to add much in the way of credit risk. However, despite my cautious outlook on the economic and credit cycles, there may be opportunities on the horizon for discerning investors to potentially improve portfolios through sector rotation and duration management (Figure 1). For example:

  • European financials continue to be among my higher-conviction investment ideas, even though Additional Tier 1 (AT1) contingent capital securities suffered following the write-down to zero of Credit Suisse’s AT1 debt as part of its acquisition by UBS. Despite the greater uncertainty surrounding the future of the AT1 market, I see value across the capital stack in some “national champion” banks that are highly regulated and profitable and appear to be well capitalized.
  • Non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) have been pressured by higher mortgage rates and declining affordability, but I expect home prices to be supported by a favorable technical backdrop. Not only is US housing supply relative to the population near historic lows, but I don’t see a near-term catalyst to push inventory substantially higher. This, combined with record homeowners’ equity, conservative underwriting standards, and a dearth of “affordable” mortgage products, form the basis of my constructive view on housing prices.
  • Valuations for bank loan issuers look attractive to me, while interest coverage remains strong despite upward moves in rates. I suspect credit fundamentals may deteriorate from here as the impact of tighter monetary policy continues to work its way through the system. In particular, issuers with unhedged floating-rate capital structures may experience free-cash-flow strains. Wary of these risks, I favor sectors and credits that have some pricing power and are less vulnerable to rising input costs over those that may be more susceptible to negative supply chain surprises.
  • For many fixed income investors, as global central banks (and markets) begin to shift their primary focus from fighting inflation to promoting economic growth, I think duration exposure can act as a more effective stabilizer of portfolio returns for the balance of this year than it did last year.
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Figure 1
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credit-market-outlook-fig1

Maintain slightly below-average risk profile with above-average liquidity

I still believe ongoing credit market volatility and today’s more challenging liquidity conditions could create some attractive entry points for fixed income investors in the period ahead. With that in mind, I suggest being ready to act quickly to potentially take advantage of credit market inefficiencies or dislocations that could arise suddenly with unforeseen market events and turmoil.

So, bottom line for the second half of 2023: I advocate for many investors having a below-average credit risk posture, with significant exposure to liquid developed market government bonds and cash, along with an above-average duration profile.

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    • to transmit unsolicited voluminous emails (for example, spamming) or to intercept, interfere with or redirect email intended for others using this Website; 
    • to generate excessive amounts of internet traffic, to interfere with Wellington Management’s network or other’s use of this Website or to engage in activities designed to, or having the effect of, degrading or denying service to other users of this Website or others;
    • to introduce viruses, worms, harmful code and/or Trojan horses onto the internet or into this Website or any other entity’s systems and it is your responsibility to ensure that whatever you download or select for your use from this Website is free from such items;
    • to post or transmit information that is defamatory, fraudulent or deceptive including, but not limited to, scams such as “make-money-fast” schemes or “pyramid/chain” letters; and/or 
    • to transmit confidential or proprietary information, except solely at your own risk. 

  20. Linked Websites:  Links to websites operated by third parties are provided for information only and do not constitute any form of advice, endorsement or recommendation of such websites or the material on them.  Wellington Management accepts no responsibility for information contained on any other sites which can be accessed by hypertext link from this Website or for these sites not being available at all times.  Wellington Management has not reviewed, and will not review or update, such websites or information and any use that you make of such websites and information is at your own risk.  Please note that when you click on any external site hypertext link you will leave this Website. You should review the privacy statements of such websites before you provide any personal or confidential information.

  21. Website Security and Restrictions on Use: As a condition to your use of this Website, you agree that you will not, and you will not take any action intended to:  (i) access data that is not intended for you; (ii) invade the privacy of, obtain the identity of, or obtain any personal information about any other user of this Website; (iii) probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of this Website or Wellington Management’s network or breach security or authentication measures without proper authorisation; (iv) attempt to interfere with service to any user, host, or network or otherwise attempt to disrupt our business; or (v) send unsolicited mail, including promotions and/or advertising of products and services. Unauthorised use of the Website, including but not limited to unauthorised entry into Wellington Management’s systems or misuse of any information posted to a web site, is strictly prohibited. 

  22. Amendment:  Wellington Management may delete or make changes to these Terms and to the information contained on this Website at any time. Where such amendments are made, you will be required to accept any such changes in order to continue to use the Website.  If you do not accept such revised Terms, you may no longer be able to access this Website..
    If any provision of these Terms is found by any court or authority of competent jurisdiction to be illegal, void or invalid under the laws of any jurisdiction, the legality, validity or enforceability of the remainder of these Terms in that jurisdiction shall not be affected and the legality, validity and enforceability of the whole of these Terms in any other jurisdiction shall not be affected.

  23. Third Parties:  The Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and its affiliates shall have the benefit of the rights conferred on them by these Terms but otherwise no person who is not a party to these Terms may enforce its terms whether under the Contracts (Rights of Third Parties) Act (, Chapter 53B of Singapore) or otherwise.

  24. Applicable Law:  These Terms and any non-contractual obligations arising from or connected with them shall be governed by, and these Terms shall be construed in accordance with, the laws of Singapore. 

  25. Jurisdiction:  You agree that the Singapore courts shall have exclusive jurisdiction in relation to any legal action or proceedings arising out of or in connection with these Terms (whether arising out of or in connection with contractual or non-contractual obligations) (“Proceedings”) and waive any objection to Proceedings in such courts on the grounds of venue or on the grounds that Proceedings have been brought in an inappropriate forum.  You further agree that this paragraph operates for the benefit of the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and accordingly the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management shall be entitled to take Proceedings in any other court or courts having jurisdiction.

  26. About Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd.:  Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 201415544E)  is incorporated in Singapore and is regulated as a capital markets services license holder for fund management by the MAS.  Wellington Management’s principal place of business is at 8 Marina Boulevard, Tower 1, #03-01 Marina Bay Financial Centre, Singapore 018981. It is a member of the Investment Management Association of Singapore.

  27. Contact us: If you have any enquiries in relation to our data protection policies and procedures, this Website or the information on it, please contact Wellington Management at #GRG-SingaporeClientTeam@wellington.com.

Effective as of 30th September 2021

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