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Fixed income Credit What's current in credit Content CoE Program Global Program Credit Total Return Article

High hopes and low credit spreads

Connor Fitzgerald, CFA, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
March 2025
2 min read
2026-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.

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Anyone who invests in or follows the US credit markets has likely heard some version of the phrase "credit spreads are exceedingly tight" repeatedly in the past year.

What does this mean? When credit spreads are tight, it’s important to evaluate the level of compensation received for lending to a business versus the US government (as represented by US Treasuries), and how this pairs with one’s outlook for the economy and company fundamentals. Figure 1 illustrates the option-adjusted spread (OAS) of the Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index, a proxy for US investment-grade fixed income, as a percentage of the yield-to-worst, or the lowest potential yield that an issuer can pay on a bond without defaulting, of the index. This demonstrates the relative compensation investors receive by choosing to allocate to this sector compared to US Treasuries — the higher the line is on the chart, the more compensation an investor receives for the additional risk.

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Figure 1
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Line graph illustrating OAS of US investment-grade fixed income as a percentage of yield-to-worst. As of year-end 2024, the rate is relatively low at 14.8%.

Right now, the additional compensation for lending to investment-grade companies relative to the US government is at levels not seen since before the global financial crisis, in 2007.

For the past three years, we’ve believed US Treasury volatility would exceed the volatility of credit spreads in the US investment-grade corporate market — a dynamic that’s come to pass. However, a key difference between the environment three years ago and today is that in a period such as 2022, when the US Federal Reserve was raising interest rates in an effort to tame inflation, credit spreads were significantly wider to begin with, as concerns about a recession rose. At the time, the additional spread in corporate bonds compensated investors for volatility in US Treasuries because a rise in the Treasury base rate could be absorbed by credit spreads tightening. In today’s environment, unless we are about to enter a level of OAS as a percentage of yield not seen since before the year 2000, we believe there is little scope for credit-spread tightening broadly. 

Against this backdrop, we suspect it may be difficult for fixed income managers who must seek to replicate and outperform a benchmark to navigate the market effectively, given the lack of additional premium for investing in corporate bonds. Flexibility to rotate between Treasuries and credit may be crucial to mitigate credit risk in the current environment. As such, we maintain our conviction that benchmark-agnostic fixed income managers who can adjust their allocations more freely may be better positioned to navigate the current market.

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  20. Linked Websites:  Links to websites operated by third parties are provided for information only and do not constitute any form of advice, endorsement or recommendation of such websites or the material on them.  Wellington Management accepts no responsibility for information contained on any other sites which can be accessed by hypertext link from this Website or for these sites not being available at all times.  Wellington Management has not reviewed, and will not review or update, such websites or information and any use that you make of such websites and information is at your own risk.  Please note that when you click on any external site hypertext link you will leave this Website. You should review the privacy statements of such websites before you provide any personal or confidential information.

  21. Website Security and Restrictions on Use: As a condition to your use of this Website, you agree that you will not, and you will not take any action intended to:  (i) access data that is not intended for you; (ii) invade the privacy of, obtain the identity of, or obtain any personal information about any other user of this Website; (iii) probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of this Website or Wellington Management’s network or breach security or authentication measures without proper authorisation; (iv) attempt to interfere with service to any user, host, or network or otherwise attempt to disrupt our business; or (v) send unsolicited mail, including promotions and/or advertising of products and services. Unauthorised use of the Website, including but not limited to unauthorised entry into Wellington Management’s systems or misuse of any information posted to a web site, is strictly prohibited. 

  22. Amendment:  Wellington Management may delete or make changes to these Terms and to the information contained on this Website at any time. Where such amendments are made, you will be required to accept any such changes in order to continue to use the Website.  If you do not accept such revised Terms, you may no longer be able to access this Website..
    If any provision of these Terms is found by any court or authority of competent jurisdiction to be illegal, void or invalid under the laws of any jurisdiction, the legality, validity or enforceability of the remainder of these Terms in that jurisdiction shall not be affected and the legality, validity and enforceability of the whole of these Terms in any other jurisdiction shall not be affected.

  23. Third Parties:  The Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and its affiliates shall have the benefit of the rights conferred on them by these Terms but otherwise no person who is not a party to these Terms may enforce its terms whether under the Contracts (Rights of Third Parties) Act (, Chapter 53B of Singapore) or otherwise.

  24. Applicable Law:  These Terms and any non-contractual obligations arising from or connected with them shall be governed by, and these Terms shall be construed in accordance with, the laws of Singapore. 

  25. Jurisdiction:  You agree that the Singapore courts shall have exclusive jurisdiction in relation to any legal action or proceedings arising out of or in connection with these Terms (whether arising out of or in connection with contractual or non-contractual obligations) (“Proceedings”) and waive any objection to Proceedings in such courts on the grounds of venue or on the grounds that Proceedings have been brought in an inappropriate forum.  You further agree that this paragraph operates for the benefit of the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and accordingly the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management shall be entitled to take Proceedings in any other court or courts having jurisdiction.

  26. About Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd.:  Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 201415544E)  is incorporated in Singapore and is regulated as a capital markets services license holder for fund management by the MAS.  Wellington Management’s principal place of business is at 8 Marina Boulevard, Tower 1, #03-01 Marina Bay Financial Centre, Singapore 018981. It is a member of the Investment Management Association of Singapore.

  27. Contact us: If you have any enquiries in relation to our data protection policies and procedures, this Website or the information on it, please contact Wellington Management at #GRG-SingaporeClientTeam@wellington.com.

Effective as of 30th September 2021

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