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Active management Fixed income Credit Content CoE Program Global Program Article

The yield buyer

Amar Reganti, Fixed Income Strategist
Adam Norman, Investment Communications Manager
March 2025
4 min read
2026-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.

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Today’s market participants often lament that credit spreads are too compressed. Indeed, in many cases, spreads — having reached the top percentile in historical tightness across some sectors — may offer little upside potential. However, several disparate factors tend to drive total returns in fixed income and explain why spreads could remain in this lower range for some time. 

Focusing too narrowly on spreads and awaiting a mean reversion toward more attractive levels could cause investors waiting on the sidelines to forgo some compelling investment opportunities. Investors should be aware of several key factors that may drive their fixed income returns in the current environment:

1. Spread dispersion

Despite tight spreads across some sectors at the index level, dispersion is still fairly wide in spreads among different sectors and individual issuers. And there’s no shortage of potential drivers of spread volatility, including diverging central bank monetary policy, continued geopolitical conflict, and volatile US fiscal policy. Further dispersion among credit sectors would present more attractive entry points to add risk, in our view.

In fact, certain spread sectors, such as bank loans, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) remain attractive from a longer-term spread perspective. Many of these asset classes can be accessed through either standalone investments or multi-asset credit strategies.

2. Elevated yields

Yields remain near the high end of the range, and look reasonably attractive from a longer-term, historical-percentage basis. And given the relative flatness of the yield curve, fixed income investors don’t need to take on significant duration risk to find attractive yield opportunities. Figure 1 shows that while the historical spread percentile across credit segments ranks at the tightest extremes, yields look much more attractive.

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Figure 1
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Energy demand may more than double by 2050

Importantly, one of the single most significant drivers of expected returns for a fixed income portfolio is the starting yield. Figure 2 depicts the ending yield-to-worsts (YTWs), or the lowest potential yield that an issuer can pay on a bond without defaulting, of several fixed income indices on a historical basis. Each dot represents monthly observations of YTW and the Y axes show the corresponding annualized return over the ensuing three years. The blue bars represent the index yield levels as of 31 January 2025. Note the general upward sloping shape of returns versus starting yields.

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Figure 2
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Energy demand may more than double by 2050

3. The “risk-off” factor in yields today

When interest rates were low and approaching the zero lower bound, the recessionary risk mitigation of the underlying Treasury rates in credit was relatively low, unless one assumed that interest rates could move into negative territory. In today’s elevated yield backdrop, the underlying Treasury yield can act as more of a potential “shock absorber” through risk-off cycles that move spreads wider.

4. Added value through active management?

Finally, if yield alone isn’t a significant inducement, flexible total return fixed income strategies can toggle risk on and off, depending on the manager’s assessment of relative valuations and return skew. In our view, attractiveness of valuations may continue to diverge across fixed income sectors, creating potential opportunities for dynamic strategies that can take advantage of security or sectoral dislocations.

Given the uncertainty of the current rate cycle — a dynamic compounded by persistent geopolitical risks — we believe a prudent approach to fixed income allocations may be maintaining a benchmark-agnostic approach with flexibility to pursue security- or sector-dislocation-driven opportunities as they arise.

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Experts

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    • to transmit confidential or proprietary information, except solely at your own risk. 

  20. Linked Websites:  Links to websites operated by third parties are provided for information only and do not constitute any form of advice, endorsement or recommendation of such websites or the material on them.  Wellington Management accepts no responsibility for information contained on any other sites which can be accessed by hypertext link from this Website or for these sites not being available at all times.  Wellington Management has not reviewed, and will not review or update, such websites or information and any use that you make of such websites and information is at your own risk.  Please note that when you click on any external site hypertext link you will leave this Website. You should review the privacy statements of such websites before you provide any personal or confidential information.

  21. Website Security and Restrictions on Use: As a condition to your use of this Website, you agree that you will not, and you will not take any action intended to:  (i) access data that is not intended for you; (ii) invade the privacy of, obtain the identity of, or obtain any personal information about any other user of this Website; (iii) probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of this Website or Wellington Management’s network or breach security or authentication measures without proper authorisation; (iv) attempt to interfere with service to any user, host, or network or otherwise attempt to disrupt our business; or (v) send unsolicited mail, including promotions and/or advertising of products and services. Unauthorised use of the Website, including but not limited to unauthorised entry into Wellington Management’s systems or misuse of any information posted to a web site, is strictly prohibited. 

  22. Amendment:  Wellington Management may delete or make changes to these Terms and to the information contained on this Website at any time. Where such amendments are made, you will be required to accept any such changes in order to continue to use the Website.  If you do not accept such revised Terms, you may no longer be able to access this Website..
    If any provision of these Terms is found by any court or authority of competent jurisdiction to be illegal, void or invalid under the laws of any jurisdiction, the legality, validity or enforceability of the remainder of these Terms in that jurisdiction shall not be affected and the legality, validity and enforceability of the whole of these Terms in any other jurisdiction shall not be affected.

  23. Third Parties:  The Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and its affiliates shall have the benefit of the rights conferred on them by these Terms but otherwise no person who is not a party to these Terms may enforce its terms whether under the Contracts (Rights of Third Parties) Act (, Chapter 53B of Singapore) or otherwise.

  24. Applicable Law:  These Terms and any non-contractual obligations arising from or connected with them shall be governed by, and these Terms shall be construed in accordance with, the laws of Singapore. 

  25. Jurisdiction:  You agree that the Singapore courts shall have exclusive jurisdiction in relation to any legal action or proceedings arising out of or in connection with these Terms (whether arising out of or in connection with contractual or non-contractual obligations) (“Proceedings”) and waive any objection to Proceedings in such courts on the grounds of venue or on the grounds that Proceedings have been brought in an inappropriate forum.  You further agree that this paragraph operates for the benefit of the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and accordingly the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management shall be entitled to take Proceedings in any other court or courts having jurisdiction.

  26. About Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd.:  Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 201415544E)  is incorporated in Singapore and is regulated as a capital markets services license holder for fund management by the MAS.  Wellington Management’s principal place of business is at 8 Marina Boulevard, Tower 1, #03-01 Marina Bay Financial Centre, Singapore 018981. It is a member of the Investment Management Association of Singapore.

  27. Contact us: If you have any enquiries in relation to our data protection policies and procedures, this Website or the information on it, please contact Wellington Management at #GRG-SingaporeClientTeam@wellington.com.

Effective as of 30th September 2021

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