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Total return Fixed income Credit Wealth Program USA Article Industrials

Are bond investors ready for a US industrial revolution?

Connor Fitzgerald, CFA, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
October 2024
6 min read
2025-10-31
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.

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One of the key questions that markets are currently trying to answer is whether central banks will be able to engineer a soft landing for the global economy. While an important consideration, I think investors should not overlook the broader structural shifts that are reshaping the investment landscape in this new economic era. Take for instance the dramatic pickup in all types of corporate capital spending we are witnessing in the US. If sustained, this trend could, in my view, trigger a new industrial revolution in the US and beyond, with major implications for fixed income investing.

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A potentially structural story

I think today’s significant increases in capital spending are not a temporary phenomenon but, instead, are being driven by long-term factors such as: 

  • Rapid developments in AI, which are driving exponential increases in corporate capital expenditure (capex) far above consensus estimates.
  • Deglobalization, prompted by escalating geopolitical rivalry — especially between China and the US — and concerns about the fragility of global supply lines.
  • Growing demand for power, which is amplified by both energy-intensive AI and reshoring of manufacturing.
  • Electrification of the grid combined with a continued drive to invest in alternative sources of energy generation.
  • “Revenge” spending on physical assets after a prolonged period of underinvestment where markets favored asset-light business models with a focus on R&D and intellectual property investments.

Impetus for higher economic growth

In combination, the size of these additional private nonresidential investment flows (Figure 1) is such that they could materially alter the course of the US economy. Typically, investment in physical assets tend to have much larger positive multiplier effects on economic growth than the asset-light business models that until now have dominated the market. 

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Figure 1

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It is too early to tell whether this new industrial revolution will materialize, given the long history of false starts in US industrial renaissance and the risk that heightened geopolitical turmoil could derail the global economy. Nevertheless, I see several reasons why, for now, data has been surprising on the upside relative to surveys, including: 

  • The nature of the capex — The amounts announced already exceed the money spent during the last capex pickup, when shale gas production was ramped up. Based on the amounts committed alone, we can expect an above-inflation growth rate in private nonresidential structure and equipment spending for several years to come. Importantly, some of the mega-caps are able to finance their capex without external funding, thus sidestepping public credit markets as these have become less willing to fund capital-intensive infrastructure projects with long payback periods.
  • Productivity gains resulting from AI capex — AI is already delivering productivity gains, with companies reporting return on their investment (ROI) at a much faster rate than was the case for previous technology breakthroughs. This acceleration in ROI, in turn, further reduces the need for external funding.
  • The urgency and scale of the investments needed — After a prolonged period of underinvestment, there is an urgent need for physical investments to upgrade aging US infrastructure.
  • The resilience of the US consumer — A weakening US consumer would undo much of the additional growth momentum generated by this incipient industrial revolution given how crucial consumer spending is to the overall economy and I am therefore monitoring this risk closely. However, despite some signs of increased vulnerability, consumers — even at the lower income spectrum — appear to be more resilient than markets assume. Consumer balance sheets remain robust, though excess savings are now largely spent, and while AI may eventually lead to job losses, workers’ bargaining power has increased for now, at least. Many consumers also still benefit from the wealth effect of increased house prices, while real incomes are continuing to rise thanks to the drop in inflation.

On balance, therefore, I think the US economy is structurally positioned to deliver higher-than-anticipated growth and that even if a recession were to materialize, it would likely be shallow. 

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Important implications for monetary policy 

This structural growth momentum coincides with still extraordinarily loose fiscal policy and growing public debt levels across much of the developed world. And while central banks have started an easing cycle to support economic growth, inflation remains in many cases above their target and is likely to pick up again. I therefore believe that the yield curve will eventually steepen and that rates will remain at higher levels than markets currently price in as a combination of stubborn inflation and the need for additional government deficit funding will curtail the ability of the Federal Reserve and other developed central banks to cut rates. The eventual adjustment to this reality of what our macro strategists call “the new economic era” — with higher and more volatile inflation and shorter and more pronounced economic cycles — will inevitably entail more volatility.  

Portfolio positioning for this new reality

How can investors position for the significant risks and opportunities this new environment brings? There is clearly no uniform answer but one potentially attractive avenue, in my opinion, is to adopt a total return approach that enables dynamic pivots across a wide opportunity set.

Specifically, at this unpredictable stage of the cycle, I think such an approach allows investors to:

  • Avoid taking on excessive credit or duration risk while still achieving attractive yields, by taking positions at the shorter end of the curve and away from those segments of the credit market where I think spreads have become exceedingly tight.
  • Avoid having to make an “all-or-nothing” call on whether we will see a continuation of growth surprises or move into recession.
  • Lean into either scenario. While I am bullish that the growth scenario will prevail, I think such a positioning also offers investors the potential to take advantage of the associated volatility when other market participants may be forced sellers. Such flexibility could be particularly advantageous if we are truly entering a new era of industrialization with the US as its epicenter.
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    • to violate Wellington Management’s or any third party’'s copyright, trademark, proprietary or other intellectual property rights; 
    • to damage Wellington Management’s name or reputation or that of Wellington Management’s affiliated companies or any third parties;
    • to impersonate any of Wellington Management’s employees or other person or use a false name while using this Website or implying an association with Wellington Management;  
    • to penetrate Wellington Management’s security measures or other entities’' systems (“hacking”);
    • to transmit unsolicited voluminous emails (for example, spamming) or to intercept, interfere with or redirect email intended for others using this Website; 
    • to generate excessive amounts of internet traffic, to interfere with Wellington Management’s network or other’s use of this Website or to engage in activities designed to, or having the effect of, degrading or denying service to other users of this Website or others;
    • to introduce viruses, worms, harmful code and/or Trojan horses onto the internet or into this Website or any other entity’s systems and it is your responsibility to ensure that whatever you download or select for your use from this Website is free from such items;
    • to post or transmit information that is defamatory, fraudulent or deceptive including, but not limited to, scams such as “make-money-fast” schemes or “pyramid/chain” letters; and/or 
    • to transmit confidential or proprietary information, except solely at your own risk. 

  20. Linked Websites:  Links to websites operated by third parties are provided for information only and do not constitute any form of advice, endorsement or recommendation of such websites or the material on them.  Wellington Management accepts no responsibility for information contained on any other sites which can be accessed by hypertext link from this Website or for these sites not being available at all times.  Wellington Management has not reviewed, and will not review or update, such websites or information and any use that you make of such websites and information is at your own risk.  Please note that when you click on any external site hypertext link you will leave this Website. You should review the privacy statements of such websites before you provide any personal or confidential information.

  21. Website Security and Restrictions on Use: As a condition to your use of this Website, you agree that you will not, and you will not take any action intended to:  (i) access data that is not intended for you; (ii) invade the privacy of, obtain the identity of, or obtain any personal information about any other user of this Website; (iii) probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of this Website or Wellington Management’s network or breach security or authentication measures without proper authorisation; (iv) attempt to interfere with service to any user, host, or network or otherwise attempt to disrupt our business; or (v) send unsolicited mail, including promotions and/or advertising of products and services. Unauthorised use of the Website, including but not limited to unauthorised entry into Wellington Management’s systems or misuse of any information posted to a web site, is strictly prohibited. 

  22. Amendment:  Wellington Management may delete or make changes to these Terms and to the information contained on this Website at any time. Where such amendments are made, you will be required to accept any such changes in order to continue to use the Website.  If you do not accept such revised Terms, you may no longer be able to access this Website..
    If any provision of these Terms is found by any court or authority of competent jurisdiction to be illegal, void or invalid under the laws of any jurisdiction, the legality, validity or enforceability of the remainder of these Terms in that jurisdiction shall not be affected and the legality, validity and enforceability of the whole of these Terms in any other jurisdiction shall not be affected.

  23. Third Parties:  The Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and its affiliates shall have the benefit of the rights conferred on them by these Terms but otherwise no person who is not a party to these Terms may enforce its terms whether under the Contracts (Rights of Third Parties) Act (, Chapter 53B of Singapore) or otherwise.

  24. Applicable Law:  These Terms and any non-contractual obligations arising from or connected with them shall be governed by, and these Terms shall be construed in accordance with, the laws of Singapore. 

  25. Jurisdiction:  You agree that the Singapore courts shall have exclusive jurisdiction in relation to any legal action or proceedings arising out of or in connection with these Terms (whether arising out of or in connection with contractual or non-contractual obligations) (“Proceedings”) and waive any objection to Proceedings in such courts on the grounds of venue or on the grounds that Proceedings have been brought in an inappropriate forum.  You further agree that this paragraph operates for the benefit of the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and accordingly the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management shall be entitled to take Proceedings in any other court or courts having jurisdiction.

  26. About Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd.:  Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 201415544E)  is incorporated in Singapore and is regulated as a capital markets services license holder for fund management by the MAS.  Wellington Management’s principal place of business is at 8 Marina Boulevard, Tower 1, #03-01 Marina Bay Financial Centre, Singapore 018981. It is a member of the Investment Management Association of Singapore.

  27. Contact us: If you have any enquiries in relation to our data protection policies and procedures, this Website or the information on it, please contact Wellington Management at #GRG-SingaporeClientTeam@wellington.com.

Effective as of 30th September 2021

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