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Currency interventions — here to stay?

Marco Giordano, Investment Director
June 2024
4 min read
2025-06-30
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The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.

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At time of writing, investors and market commentators are focused on the impact of (still) high inflation and subsequent monetary policy decisions on bond markets but they appear to have overlooked the potential consequences for currency risk. Yet, in our view, the new economic era we have entered entails not only more uncertainty and volatility in interest rates but also greater fluctuations in exchange rates. Hence, we believe understanding currency moves and how they impact economies can be an important asset in navigating increasingly volatile markets. 

The growing risk of currency intervention

Currency intervention is a monetary policy action taken to moderate the pace or extent to which a currency appreciates or depreciates. This is done by changing the supply of the local currency and actively buying or selling foreign currencies at scale to reach the desired exchange rate. It is most often undertaken when the level of the local currency exchange rate is deemed to have moved out of alignment with underlying economic fundamentals. Policymakers buy or sell national reserves to stabilise the economy and control inflation by putting a stop to what is perceived to be excessive currency strengthening or weakening. While the line between currency intervention and manipulation can sometimes be blurred, large-scale interventions generally aim to address a broadly recognised imbalance in markets and often involve international cooperation or agreement. Occasionally, however, governments are accused of outright manipulation, attempting to unofficially distort the value of their currency to achieve a specific economic objective, most notably to (re)gain competitiveness in global markets and boost exports.

Lessons from the past
To be clear, intervention by policymakers to prop up or strategically devalue a currency is not new. As an example, in 1992, the UK withdrew sterling from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) in a bid to stop speculative selling of the currency (an event known as “Black Wednesday”). At the time, the UK was slowly emerging from a steep recession caused by factors such as low competitiveness, high inflation and persistent current account deficits. However, policymakers kept interest rates high to prop up the value of sterling. When market participants became concerned that the currency’s exchange rate did not reflect these weaknesses, the monetary authorities responded with further rate hikes and then large-scale currency interventions. When these rate hikes and interventions became unsustainable, the UK abandoned the ERM, prompting a large-scale devaluation (Figure 1). While a brutal shock, it ultimately increased the UK’s competitiveness in global markets and spurred economic growth. 

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Figure 1
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currency-interventions-here-fig

Similarly, other ERM currencies, most notably the Italian lira and Spanish peseta, went through various rounds of devaluations against the German mark, enabling them to maintain export competitiveness. And back in the 1980s, the G7 countries sought a strategic devaluation of the US dollar through coordinated efforts (the Plaza and Louvre Accords), with the aim of addressing major imbalances in the global economy.

What does this mean for investors?

Since the introduction of the euro, active currency intervention has mostly occurred in emerging markets, most notably in Argentina and Turkey. Among developed economies, the use of active currency management has been limited to Switzerland, as the safe-haven status of the Swiss franc has, at times, posed a risk for the Swiss economy and the effectiveness of its monetary policy. 

However, intervention has become more frequent in the last two years. We have seen Japan’s Ministry of Finance step into markets with tens of billions of US dollars to shore up the value of the Japanese yen while the Chinese authorities appear to be allowing the renminbi to float more freely in global markets in an attempt to devalue the currency and improve competitiveness. There has even been speculation that some Trump advisers are in favour of including currency intervention in the US government’s economic toolkit, should the Republican Party regain control of the administration. While on the surface implausible, such a move would be bold and unprecedented in recent history.

The inevitable conclusion is that once a critical mass of countries engage in active currency manipulation, a sort of prisoner’s dilemma ensues: there is no advantage in not taking part. This has potentially significant implications for investors and allocators:

  • Investments in global fixed income markets can continue to provide significant benefits in an environment of higher currency volatility, including diversification from domestic markets. In this context, increased currency volatility needn’t be only a risk to hedge. It can present opportunities for consistent alpha generation too.
  • Equity investors without a hedging programme may find their gains eroded in the event of significant currency moves.
  • The disintermediation of the US dollar as the global reserve currency seems unlikely for now but is an increasing tail risk.
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    Transfer of data to other countries

    Any information you provide to Wellington Management through use of this website may be stored and processed, transferred between, and accessed from countries outside of Singapore. In the event that we transfer your personal data to a country outside Singapore, we will take appropriate steps to ensure that the recipient of the personal data is required to provide the transferred personal data a standard of protection that is at least comparable to the protection under the Personal Data Protection Act 2012 of Singapore.

  18. Cookies:  When you visit this Website, a Wellington Management group company server will record your IP address together with the date, time, page visited and duration of your visit. Please note that the Wellington Management group uses cookies on this section of the Website. A cookie is a small piece of information sent by a web server to store on a Web browser so it can later be read back from that browser. Cookies are small pieces of software that are issued to your computer or device and that store and sometimes track information about your use of the site. The Wellington Management group also uses cookies to collect general usage and volume statistical information that does not include personally identifiable information. Some cookies may remain on the user’s computer after they leave this Website (these are known as persistent cookies). For more information about cookies including how to set your internet browser to reject cookies, please go to www.allaboutcookies.org.

    By using this Website, you agree that the Wellington Management group can place cookies on your device which collect the data and for the purposes described above and as further detailed in the Cookie Policy. If you delete cookies relating to this Website, we will not remember things about you, you will be treated as a first-time visitor the next time you visit this Website and we will not be able to tailor your experience of this Website. 

    The Wellington Management group has engaged one or more third party service providers to track and analyse usage and volume statistical information from visitors to this Website. The service provider(s) set cookies on behalf of the Wellington Management group.  The Wellington Management group may re-associate the information provided by the technologies directly above with other personal information we hold about you.  By using this Website, you agree that third parties can place cookies on your device as described above.

  19. Your use of this Website: You must not use this Website (or permit or procure others to use it) as follows:
    • for any unlawful, improper or illegal purpose or activity; 
    • to communicate or receive information that is obscene, indecent, pornographic, sadistic, cruel, or racist in content, of a sexually explicit or graphic nature, which promotes or incites discrimination, hatred or racism or which might be legally actionable for any reason;
    • in a manner intended to threaten, harass, or intimidate; 
    • to violate Wellington Management’s or any third party’'s copyright, trademark, proprietary or other intellectual property rights; 
    • to damage Wellington Management’s name or reputation or that of Wellington Management’s affiliated companies or any third parties;
    • to impersonate any of Wellington Management’s employees or other person or use a false name while using this Website or implying an association with Wellington Management;  
    • to penetrate Wellington Management’s security measures or other entities’' systems (“hacking”);
    • to transmit unsolicited voluminous emails (for example, spamming) or to intercept, interfere with or redirect email intended for others using this Website; 
    • to generate excessive amounts of internet traffic, to interfere with Wellington Management’s network or other’s use of this Website or to engage in activities designed to, or having the effect of, degrading or denying service to other users of this Website or others;
    • to introduce viruses, worms, harmful code and/or Trojan horses onto the internet or into this Website or any other entity’s systems and it is your responsibility to ensure that whatever you download or select for your use from this Website is free from such items;
    • to post or transmit information that is defamatory, fraudulent or deceptive including, but not limited to, scams such as “make-money-fast” schemes or “pyramid/chain” letters; and/or 
    • to transmit confidential or proprietary information, except solely at your own risk. 

  20. Linked Websites:  Links to websites operated by third parties are provided for information only and do not constitute any form of advice, endorsement or recommendation of such websites or the material on them.  Wellington Management accepts no responsibility for information contained on any other sites which can be accessed by hypertext link from this Website or for these sites not being available at all times.  Wellington Management has not reviewed, and will not review or update, such websites or information and any use that you make of such websites and information is at your own risk.  Please note that when you click on any external site hypertext link you will leave this Website. You should review the privacy statements of such websites before you provide any personal or confidential information.

  21. Website Security and Restrictions on Use: As a condition to your use of this Website, you agree that you will not, and you will not take any action intended to:  (i) access data that is not intended for you; (ii) invade the privacy of, obtain the identity of, or obtain any personal information about any other user of this Website; (iii) probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of this Website or Wellington Management’s network or breach security or authentication measures without proper authorisation; (iv) attempt to interfere with service to any user, host, or network or otherwise attempt to disrupt our business; or (v) send unsolicited mail, including promotions and/or advertising of products and services. Unauthorised use of the Website, including but not limited to unauthorised entry into Wellington Management’s systems or misuse of any information posted to a web site, is strictly prohibited. 

  22. Amendment:  Wellington Management may delete or make changes to these Terms and to the information contained on this Website at any time. Where such amendments are made, you will be required to accept any such changes in order to continue to use the Website.  If you do not accept such revised Terms, you may no longer be able to access this Website..
    If any provision of these Terms is found by any court or authority of competent jurisdiction to be illegal, void or invalid under the laws of any jurisdiction, the legality, validity or enforceability of the remainder of these Terms in that jurisdiction shall not be affected and the legality, validity and enforceability of the whole of these Terms in any other jurisdiction shall not be affected.

  23. Third Parties:  The Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and its affiliates shall have the benefit of the rights conferred on them by these Terms but otherwise no person who is not a party to these Terms may enforce its terms whether under the Contracts (Rights of Third Parties) Act (, Chapter 53B of Singapore) or otherwise.

  24. Applicable Law:  These Terms and any non-contractual obligations arising from or connected with them shall be governed by, and these Terms shall be construed in accordance with, the laws of Singapore. 

  25. Jurisdiction:  You agree that the Singapore courts shall have exclusive jurisdiction in relation to any legal action or proceedings arising out of or in connection with these Terms (whether arising out of or in connection with contractual or non-contractual obligations) (“Proceedings”) and waive any objection to Proceedings in such courts on the grounds of venue or on the grounds that Proceedings have been brought in an inappropriate forum.  You further agree that this paragraph operates for the benefit of the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and accordingly the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management shall be entitled to take Proceedings in any other court or courts having jurisdiction.

  26. About Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd.:  Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 201415544E)  is incorporated in Singapore and is regulated as a capital markets services license holder for fund management by the MAS.  Wellington Management’s principal place of business is at 8 Marina Boulevard, Tower 1, #03-01 Marina Bay Financial Centre, Singapore 018981. It is a member of the Investment Management Association of Singapore.

  27. Contact us: If you have any enquiries in relation to our data protection policies and procedures, this Website or the information on it, please contact Wellington Management at #GRG-SingaporeClientTeam@wellington.com.

Effective as of 30th September 2021

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