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Fixed income Inflation Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program Article

FOMC meeting: Misery loves company

Jeremy Forster, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
March 2025
3 min read
2026-03-31
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The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.

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Fed keeps policy rates on hold and downgrades economic forecasts

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) once again kept interest rates on hold at its March policy meeting. In its updated projections, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) downgraded its growth forecasts and increased its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts, with the median Committee member still expecting to cut rates twice by the end of this year. Market participants also continue to anticipate a resumption of rate cuts later this year, based on futures pricing. 

The range of outcomes for the economy appears quite wide given policy uncertainty, particularly around tariffs. In his prepared statement at the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged weaker consumer spending patterns but asserted that the Fed is “well-positioned to wait for greater clarity.”

Labor market coming into better balance 

With inflation still elevated at levels that I would describe as uncomfortable for consumers and policymakers, it makes sense for the Fed to stay on hold for the time being, despite the emergence of downside growth risks. We have not yet witnessed material weakness in labor markets, as jobless claims remain stable at low levels and the unemployment rate hovers around 4%. The drop-off in labor demand from weaker growth is likely to be matched by reduced labor supply from immigration policies as well as aging demographics. I expect payroll growth to slow in the months ahead but the steady state of payrolls — at levels that do not raise the unemployment rate — will probably decline to a range of 50 – 75 thousand per month. 

Sentiment souring, but are consumers really that miserable?

Developments around global trade, US federal outlays, and the federal workforce have weighed on business and consumer sentiment indicators, suggesting a deteriorating growth and inflation trade-off. The inflation expectations component of the most recent survey from the University of Michigan soared by the most since 1993, raising concerns about potential stagflation. However, the results appear to be politically biased, with Democratic respondents reporting much worse sentiment than Republicans. The misery index, 1 which combines the unemployment rate and inflation, remains well below levels that would raise alarm bells of a stagflationary environment, as actual measures of inflation (as opposed to survey-based) appear fairly well-anchored in the 3% range, still above the Fed’s 2% target.

Some members at odds over balance-sheet policy

The Fed announced a slower pace of the monthly reduction in its US Treasury securities holdings from US$25 billion to US$5 billion. Chair Powell highlighted some earlier disagreement among Committee members about the Fed’s balance-sheet policy, although it sounds like the reduction in pace was very broadly supported. Some considered it appropriate for the Fed to stay the course in winding down its balance-sheet runoff, or quantitative tightening (QT), while others advocated for a pause given potential disruptions from the debt ceiling. Liquidity conditions will likely get a boost with the slower pace of QT and potentially take some pressure off longer-term US Treasury yields. Chair Powell mentioned that the Fed is starting to see signs of tightness in money markets. There is some evidence to suggest that QT is contributing to the relative tightness of supply and demand conditions in the repo market, which makes interest rates more sensitive to changes in Treasury supply.

The change in QT should also ease financial conditions on the margin, which may be welcome to some market participants given the recent equity market sell-off and widening of credit spreads. However, this also threatens to add to existing upside inflation risks. I remain skeptical that the Fed will deliver on market expectations or its own projections for an additional two interest-rate cuts this year unless growth materially disappoints.

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1The misery index was created by economist Arthur Okun in the 1970s as an indicator of economic health.

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  18. Cookies:  When you visit this Website, a Wellington Management group company server will record your IP address together with the date, time, page visited and duration of your visit. Please note that the Wellington Management group uses cookies on this section of the Website. A cookie is a small piece of information sent by a web server to store on a Web browser so it can later be read back from that browser. Cookies are small pieces of software that are issued to your computer or device and that store and sometimes track information about your use of the site. The Wellington Management group also uses cookies to collect general usage and volume statistical information that does not include personally identifiable information. Some cookies may remain on the user’s computer after they leave this Website (these are known as persistent cookies). For more information about cookies including how to set your internet browser to reject cookies, please go to www.allaboutcookies.org.

    By using this Website, you agree that the Wellington Management group can place cookies on your device which collect the data and for the purposes described above and as further detailed in the Cookie Policy. If you delete cookies relating to this Website, we will not remember things about you, you will be treated as a first-time visitor the next time you visit this Website and we will not be able to tailor your experience of this Website. 

    The Wellington Management group has engaged one or more third party service providers to track and analyse usage and volume statistical information from visitors to this Website. The service provider(s) set cookies on behalf of the Wellington Management group.  The Wellington Management group may re-associate the information provided by the technologies directly above with other personal information we hold about you.  By using this Website, you agree that third parties can place cookies on your device as described above.

  19. Your use of this Website: You must not use this Website (or permit or procure others to use it) as follows:
    • for any unlawful, improper or illegal purpose or activity; 
    • to communicate or receive information that is obscene, indecent, pornographic, sadistic, cruel, or racist in content, of a sexually explicit or graphic nature, which promotes or incites discrimination, hatred or racism or which might be legally actionable for any reason;
    • in a manner intended to threaten, harass, or intimidate; 
    • to violate Wellington Management’s or any third party’'s copyright, trademark, proprietary or other intellectual property rights; 
    • to damage Wellington Management’s name or reputation or that of Wellington Management’s affiliated companies or any third parties;
    • to impersonate any of Wellington Management’s employees or other person or use a false name while using this Website or implying an association with Wellington Management;  
    • to penetrate Wellington Management’s security measures or other entities’' systems (“hacking”);
    • to transmit unsolicited voluminous emails (for example, spamming) or to intercept, interfere with or redirect email intended for others using this Website; 
    • to generate excessive amounts of internet traffic, to interfere with Wellington Management’s network or other’s use of this Website or to engage in activities designed to, or having the effect of, degrading or denying service to other users of this Website or others;
    • to introduce viruses, worms, harmful code and/or Trojan horses onto the internet or into this Website or any other entity’s systems and it is your responsibility to ensure that whatever you download or select for your use from this Website is free from such items;
    • to post or transmit information that is defamatory, fraudulent or deceptive including, but not limited to, scams such as “make-money-fast” schemes or “pyramid/chain” letters; and/or 
    • to transmit confidential or proprietary information, except solely at your own risk. 

  20. Linked Websites:  Links to websites operated by third parties are provided for information only and do not constitute any form of advice, endorsement or recommendation of such websites or the material on them.  Wellington Management accepts no responsibility for information contained on any other sites which can be accessed by hypertext link from this Website or for these sites not being available at all times.  Wellington Management has not reviewed, and will not review or update, such websites or information and any use that you make of such websites and information is at your own risk.  Please note that when you click on any external site hypertext link you will leave this Website. You should review the privacy statements of such websites before you provide any personal or confidential information.

  21. Website Security and Restrictions on Use: As a condition to your use of this Website, you agree that you will not, and you will not take any action intended to:  (i) access data that is not intended for you; (ii) invade the privacy of, obtain the identity of, or obtain any personal information about any other user of this Website; (iii) probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of this Website or Wellington Management’s network or breach security or authentication measures without proper authorisation; (iv) attempt to interfere with service to any user, host, or network or otherwise attempt to disrupt our business; or (v) send unsolicited mail, including promotions and/or advertising of products and services. Unauthorised use of the Website, including but not limited to unauthorised entry into Wellington Management’s systems or misuse of any information posted to a web site, is strictly prohibited. 

  22. Amendment:  Wellington Management may delete or make changes to these Terms and to the information contained on this Website at any time. Where such amendments are made, you will be required to accept any such changes in order to continue to use the Website.  If you do not accept such revised Terms, you may no longer be able to access this Website..
    If any provision of these Terms is found by any court or authority of competent jurisdiction to be illegal, void or invalid under the laws of any jurisdiction, the legality, validity or enforceability of the remainder of these Terms in that jurisdiction shall not be affected and the legality, validity and enforceability of the whole of these Terms in any other jurisdiction shall not be affected.

  23. Third Parties:  The Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and its affiliates shall have the benefit of the rights conferred on them by these Terms but otherwise no person who is not a party to these Terms may enforce its terms whether under the Contracts (Rights of Third Parties) Act (, Chapter 53B of Singapore) or otherwise.

  24. Applicable Law:  These Terms and any non-contractual obligations arising from or connected with them shall be governed by, and these Terms shall be construed in accordance with, the laws of Singapore. 

  25. Jurisdiction:  You agree that the Singapore courts shall have exclusive jurisdiction in relation to any legal action or proceedings arising out of or in connection with these Terms (whether arising out of or in connection with contractual or non-contractual obligations) (“Proceedings”) and waive any objection to Proceedings in such courts on the grounds of venue or on the grounds that Proceedings have been brought in an inappropriate forum.  You further agree that this paragraph operates for the benefit of the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and accordingly the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management shall be entitled to take Proceedings in any other court or courts having jurisdiction.

  26. About Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd.:  Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 201415544E)  is incorporated in Singapore and is regulated as a capital markets services license holder for fund management by the MAS.  Wellington Management’s principal place of business is at 8 Marina Boulevard, Tower 1, #03-01 Marina Bay Financial Centre, Singapore 018981. It is a member of the Investment Management Association of Singapore.

  27. Contact us: If you have any enquiries in relation to our data protection policies and procedures, this Website or the information on it, please contact Wellington Management at #GRG-SingaporeClientTeam@wellington.com.

Effective as of 30th September 2021

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