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Changechevron_rightThe views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.
Despite looming (and growing) economic recession risks, we see several potential opportunities in higher-yielding credit sectors (as shown in below chart). While these excess return forecasts assume that spreads will revert to their historical medians, our slightly more bearish forecast incorporates some degree of spread widening given our expectation for an economic slowdown. In our view, some of the most compelling opportunities in fixed income credit sectors include:
Conversely, emerging markets (EM) USD-denominated sovereign spreads remain in the tightest quintile relative to history. As a result, we think it is prudent to consider reducing EM sovereign exposure in favor of the opportunities outlined above.
Looking ahead, we believe that bouts of volatility in 2024 could generate greater idiosyncratic dispersion and create better entry points to add credit exposure. Despite economic and monetary policy uncertainty, we believe the potential upside from earning today’s historically high yields and being ready to take advantage of credit market dislocations as they arise outweigh the possible risk from rates moving higher. In our view, various dislocations in higher-yielding credit markets could offer the most compelling opportunities for asset owners in 2024, with a goal of pursuing yield and total return in a manner that is as efficient and risk-controlled as possible. We also think it is important for investors to stay flexible and nimble in an uncertain market landscape.
Experts
Related Fund
A multi-sector credit fund seeking attractive long-term total returns and consistent income through active sector rotation.
Time for bond investors to take the wheel?
Volatility makes bond investing less straightforward, but it can also create opportunities, provided investors are in a position to "take the wheel" in order to capitalise on them.
Are bond investors ready for a US industrial revolution?
Portfolio Manager Connor Fitzgerald discusses why bond investors should ready themselves for a potential US industrial revolution and shares his perspective on how to reposition portfolios for such a scenario.
What's current in credit?
In this short video series, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Connor Fitzgerald takes a look at what's current in credit. Given rather tight credit spread valuations, what is Connor's outlook for the next twelve months and where are the opportunities and risks now?
Rate relief: Fed cuts half point, but says “economy is strong”
Our expert explains the Fed's bold rate cut and some key takeaways for investors.
Chart in Focus: Four key areas of opportunities in bonds amid Fed uncertainty
We discuss four key areas of opportunities in fixed income amid Fed uncertainty in the second half of the year.
Time for credit selection to shine
Fixed income investors continue to seek answers to an era of volatile rates. Large, static exposures to credit markets no longer cut it. Instead, a nimble and dynamic approach is more likely to create resilient and consistent total return outcomes.
Capitalizing on rate shifts: Parsing opportunities in the second half
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Campe Goodman and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti discuss how to capitalize on potential rate shifts in the second half of the year
Reframing fixed income portfolios: why bond maths makes the difference
It is easy to understand why fixed income investors tend to focus on yields. But investors who focus too much on yield may run the risk of overpaying for income and underestimating the impact of price volatility.
Looking beyond yield: Rethinking the approach of fixed income investing
Investors face a new regime, challenging traditional assumptions about returns and volatility. With central bank interventions impacting credit markets, it’s time to rethink income allocations. Rather than fixating solely on yield, consider a dynamic approach, presented by Connor Fitzgerald.
New era demands a nimble approach to credit
Our expert explains why deep research and an active approach are effective ways for fixed income investors to uncover credit opportunities in today's market.
Credit: Better opportunities to add risk on the horizon
ur experts review current macro dynamics impacting the bond market and discuss where they see opportunities and risks across credit sectors.
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