- Investment Communications Manager
Skip to main content
- Funds
- Insights
- Capabilities
- About Us
- My Account
The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
As of this writing, one of the most heated debates taking place within the investment community centers around the looming risk of a global economic recession. Are we likely to enter one? If so, when? How long and severe might it be?
Our take: The global economy is on the cusp of what we’re calling a “pricey” recession scenario, which could be very different from past recessionary periods. We may see a slowing in real (inflation-adjusted) economic activity, in line with the lagged impact of tighter global financial conditions. However, the nominal pulse of most economic indicators could remain elevated as inflation stays “sticky” at today’s high levels.
At the heart of our “pricey” global recession scenario lies the thorny issue of persistently high structural inflation, fueled in large part by:
In short, the cumulative impacts of deglobalizing supply chains and labor markets, driven by geopolitical realignment and compounded by decarbonization (spurring demand for commodities used in the adoption of renewable energy sources), are feeding into higher structural inflation.
The pressing question is whether the current global economic slowdown is temporary or a sign of a deeper global recession. On balance, we think it probably marks an economic “pause” rather than the onset of a protracted recession. If we are right, the global cycle should begin to bottom later this year, followed by a gradual upturn in economic activity. Decelerating global growth and easing supply bottlenecks will temporarily lower monetary policy tightening expectations. However, strong developed economy labor markets and activist fiscal policies to support global demand could keep structural inflation stubbornly higher.
It’s important to note that when global inflation is as elevated as it is these days, there are no guarantees that central banks can orchestrate “soft landings” for their respective economies. However, it’s not impossible.
For example, in the US, barring a meaningful and sustained improvement in labor supply or productivity (not our baseline), the Fed may have to reduce aggregate demand via rate hikes in a more material way to bring inflation back toward its 2% target. A Fed that successfully anchors inflation expectations, in conjunction with well-targeted US fiscal policy, might be able to put the nation’s economy on a path where the inflation rate can normalize without inflicting serious economic damage.
In our follow-up companion blog post, scheduled to publish next week, we will share our thoughts on how investors might position for the potential recession scenario we’ve described here.
Chart in Focus: What does the rate cut mean for equities and bonds?
Continue readingHarris vs Trump: The foreign policy and investment implications
Continue readingURL References
Related Insights
Stay up to date with the latest market insights and our point of view.
Quarterly Market Review
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Monthly Market Review — September 2024
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
What is “the economic cycle,” anyway?
See why the relationship between asset prices and the economic cycle is more complex than you might think, why a US recession is unlikely, and what a more dovish Fed could mean for the US and global markets.
Chart in Focus: What does the rate cut mean for equities and bonds?
Are rate cuts positive? On the heels of the much-anticipated initial Fed cut, in this article we look to historic precedent for where the markets could go in the coming months.
Monthly Market Review — August 2024
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Monthly Market Review — July 2024
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
Harris vs Trump: The foreign policy and investment implications
Our expert examines expected Harris and Trump foreign policies and their potential impact on the investment landscape.
Walking a mile in Fed Chair Powell’s shoes
A slow roll on rate cuts by the Fed could frustrate markets and lead to more volatility ahead of the September FOMC meeting. See our take on what to expect for the next few weeks.
Still waiting…Fed wants more data before cutting policy rates
Our expert dives into Fed policy following the July FMOC meeting.
Office to multifamily conversions: Implications for CMBS investors
Our experts explore the emerging trend in some US cities of converting office space into multi-family units and its implications for bond investors.
Financial Market Review
A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
URL References
Related Insights
Quarterly Market Review
Continue readingBy
Brett Hinds
Jameson Dunn