- Geopolitical Strategist
United States, Institutional
ChangeThe views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
Key messages
Risks are now clearly elevated, but I think it’s unlikely this single attack by Iran, and Israel’s limited response thus far, spreads immediately to a wider regional conflict. Iran’s actions were well telegraphed, and the relatively minor impact has allowed Israel to temper its immediate response while the US and other regional players intensify diplomacy in the background. Statements from both Tehran and the US indicate that further escalation is not desired; though, of course, Israel’s government will have a final say.
While I see incentives for all sides to “manage through this,” the number of complex variables in play across the region could credibly trigger a significant geopolitical event over the next several weeks. To name a few, these include:
- Israel’s ongoing Gaza operations and the humanitarian implications;
- Rising tensions/military engagement with Hezbollah;
- Potential responses by Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria; and
- Ongoing risks to global shipping posed by the Houthis.
The risk here is an escalation cycle that neither side can effectively curtail. From a markets perspective, the key takeaway is that we have moved one step closer to the worst-case scenario of a direct and widening Iran/Israel war that brings in the US and sparks significant energy, inflation, and central bank policy implications.
Factors that give me pause about signaling an “all-clear” in the Middle East
The ongoing leadership transition in Iran means there’s a lot of behind-the-scenes maneuvering in Tehran, and therefore, less scope for Iranian leaders to look the other way if this continues to escalate.
There continues to be a real desire by some inside the Netanyahu government to address the Iran threat “once and for all.” In this line of thinking, the events of October 7 offer hardliners an unprecedented opportunity to deal a significant blow first to Hamas (a work in progress), second to Hezbollah (arrows continue to point lower here), and finally, to Iran, especially with the existential risk of Iran’s nuclear issue hovering in the background. These attacks will intensify this hawkish position.
Thus far, the Biden administration has been mostly successful in deterring these hardline approaches (including the latest developments), but that gets harder every day.
Thematic market implications
Great-power competition dynamics are running through all of this — especially with Iran as a key supplier of drones to Russia’s Ukraine war effort, and China such a critical economic and energy partner to Tehran, to say nothing of US relationships with Israel and other regional actors.
Policymakers will use these attacks as yet another data point that underscores how we’re now living through the most complex, dangerous, and unpredictable geopolitical environment in decades. This will reinforce a policy direction that favors security writ large, as well as the continuing protection and promotion of sectors deemed strategic in this deepening and increasingly global national security competition.
Expert
Related insights
Showing
of
Insights Posts
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
US election special: which investment themes win at the polls?
Continue readingMultiple authors
event
7
min
Article
2025-10-31
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Unearthing the unseen in geopolitics
Continue reading
event
30
min
Event replay
2025-09-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Sahm rules are meant to be broken
Continue readingMultiple authors
event
12
min
Article
2025-10-31
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
An active investor’s guide to growth equities
Continue readingMultiple authors
event
6
min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
The US elections through the eyes of a European investor
Continue reading
event
7
min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Four investment perspectives amid a pivotal US election
Continue readingMultiple authors
event
6
min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
URL References
Related Insights
Stay up to date with the latest market insights and our point of view.
highlight_off
You've been subscribed
Thank you for subscribing. You can manage your subscription using the links provided in any of our subscription emails.
Read next
Showing
of
Insights Posts
Elections
Market commentary
Multi-asset
Content CoE Program Global Program
Wellington on Washington and the World
Americas
Discretionary
Article
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Pre-election ideas for investors: Lean into what you know (not what you don’t)
Our expert offers investable ideas based on known macro and market conditions, rather than speculation.
Multiple authors
event
3
min
Article
2025-10-31
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Equity
iStrat
Elections
Wealth Program
Thematic qualifer
Thematic solutions
Wellington on Washington and the World
Article
Thematic exposure
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
US election special: which investment themes win at the polls?
The upcoming US election could be one of the most momentous in recent history. How could the result affect different investment themes? Our thematic team investigate the potential implications for investors.
Multiple authors
event
7
min
Article
2025-10-31
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Unearthing the unseen in geopolitics
Unearthing the unseen in geopolitics. Watch Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha delve into the investment impact of structural geopolitical shifts and share his latest take on the upcoming US election.
event
30
min
Event replay
2025-09-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Monetary policy
Multi-asset
Tactical allocation
Content CoE Program Global Program
Elections
Quarterly Asset Allocation Outlook
Article
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Sahm rules are meant to be broken
Fed easing is finally here and fundamentals remain favorable. But what about that election? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
Multiple authors
event
12
min
Article
2025-10-31
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
An active investor’s guide to growth equities
Our experts offer their view on the current economic environment, explore best practices for investing in high-quality growth equities, and highlight where they see opportunity now.
Multiple authors
event
6
min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
The US elections through the eyes of a European investor
Supriya Menon, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy – EMEA, explores what potentially material implications upcoming US elections could have for European investors and identifies key areas to monitor closely.
event
7
min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
USA
Elections
Tactical allocation
Wealth Program
iStrat
Multi-Asset qualifier
Geopolitical
Wellington on Washington and the World
Equity
Fixed income
Multi-asset
Article
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Four investment perspectives amid a pivotal US election
How can investors reposition portfolios for a pivotal but highly unpredictable US elections? Nick Samouilhan explores potential avenues in conversation with three leading portfolio managers.
Multiple authors
event
6
min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Economic cycle
Elections
Geopolitical
Content CoE Program Global Program
Wellington on Washington and the World
USA
Article
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Harris vs Trump: The foreign policy and investment implications
Our expert examines expected Harris and Trump foreign policies and their potential impact on the investment landscape.
By
event
4
min
Article
2025-02-28
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Elections
Interest rates
Strategic allocation
DB Public Program
Content CoE Program Global Program
Top of Mind
USA
Fixed income
iStrat
Article
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Does the US election even matter? Thoughts on politics, Fed policy, and portfolios
What's next for interest rates and what impact will the US election have? Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros share their outlook and discuss the asset allocation implications.
event
9
min
Article
2025-06-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Elections
Inflation
Interest rates
Institutional Program
Credit
Government bonds
Fixed income
Americas
Wellington on Washington and the World
Article
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Are US election probabilities now a critical driver of bond yields?
Our expert argues that the US election remains a critical catalyst for the bond market given the contrast between both parties as it relates to supply side policies such as trade and immigration, and to policy differences around taxation and regulation.
event
3
min
Article
2024-11-30
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
European elections: all change for equity investors?
Macro Strategist Nicolas Wylenzek discusses how the elections for the European Parliament could herald significant change, with major implications for European equity investors.
event
4
min
Article
2025-05-07
Archived
info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
URL References
Related Insights
contact us
legal Information
© Copyright 2024 Wellington Management Company LLP. All rights reserved. WELLINGTON MANAGEMENT ® is a registered service mark of Wellington Group Holdings LLP. For institutional or professional investors only.
Pre-election ideas for investors: Lean into what you know (not what you don’t)
Continue readingMultiple authors