- Investment Specialist
Skip to main content
- Funds
- Insights
- Capabilities
- About Us
- My Account
The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
After years of near deflation across much of Europe, the region is now witnessing persistent price increases. Second-order effects of recent geopolitical developments, particularly the ongoing war in Ukraine, are intensifying the current inflationary environment. This apparent shift to a higher inflation regime, with the resulting expectation of tighter monetary policy and rising interest rates, presents a material challenge for European fixed income investors, raising questions such as:
How best to answer these questions depends on the specific circumstances of each investor, but over the coming months, we aim to share some pointers to help European investors think through the implications of higher inflation for their fixed income portfolios. As a first step, let’s take a closer look at the challenges presented by today’s uncertain market backdrop.
Following the reopening of the global economy, markets have shifted their focus to how central banks plan to unwind monetary stimulus and respond to the new, more inflationary environment, with potential implications varying by asset class and region.
Fear of potentially derailing the economic recovery initially led global central banks to tolerate price increases well above their normal inflation targets, but faced with stubbornly high inflation readings, most have now changed course (albeit at different speeds). The tragic events in Ukraine have added another layer of uncertainty to the macroeconomic picture, but they have not (yet) altered our belief that investors should prepare for the end of accommodative monetary conditions and consider positioning their portfolio allocations accordingly.
For financial markets, one of the most striking implications of the Russia/Ukraine conflict has been the sharp upward moves in energy and other commodity prices recently. (Both countries are major global commodity exporters.) If anything, this has reinforced our outlook for higher short- and medium-term inflation and the resulting need for tighter monetary policy (including higher interest rates).
As world central banks react to inflationary pressures at different speeds, we see an increased likelihood of a divergence in interest-rate cycles. This may have ramifications for European assets and asset owners who seek to hedge their global portfolio exposures:
Ultimately, a myriad of factors and potential scenarios could impact fixed income returns over the short and medium term as we progress throughout 2022 (Figure 1).
In summary, the current global environment is characterised by widespread, rapid reflation and diverging central bank monetary policy responses, but also by heightened uncertainty around geopolitical risks. Despite the challenges posed by this environment, we believe market opportunities remain plentiful and the role of a diversified portfolio paramount for fixed income investors.
In practice, European investors have a variety of tools at their disposal to help navigate this global landscape, including mechanisms to defend against — and potentially take advantage of — rising inflation and interest rates. For example:
Given the number of “known unknowns” these days and the broad range of potential outcomes going forward, we encourage fixed income investors to be as flexible as possible and to consider adjusting their base cases (and their portfolio allocations) as new information arises.
Still waiting…Fed wants more data before cutting policy rates
Continue readingAre US election probabilities now a critical driver of bond yields?
Continue readingBreaking concentration: big picture thinking with small-cap equities
Continue readingURL References
Related Insights
Stay up to date with the latest market insights and our point of view.
What is “the economic cycle,” anyway?
See why the relationship between asset prices and the economic cycle is more complex than you might think, why a US recession is unlikely, and what a more dovish Fed could mean for the US and global markets.
Time to capitalise on the evolving role of bonds?
We outline why we think the new economic era is elevating the role of bonds as a source of attractive and stable income, downside protection and portfolio diversification.
Still waiting…Fed wants more data before cutting policy rates
Our expert dives into Fed policy following the July FMOC meeting.
Are US election probabilities now a critical driver of bond yields?
Our expert argues that the US election remains a critical catalyst for the bond market given the contrast between both parties as it relates to supply side policies such as trade and immigration, and to policy differences around taxation and regulation.
Breaking concentration: big picture thinking with small-cap equities
How to overcome the risks associated with today's concentrated market? Investment Director John Mullins explores why small-cap equities could be part of the answer.
All-time highs and CPIs: What comes next?
Global fundamentals have kept markets content so far this year, but will politics sour the mood? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their views on the second half of 2024, including on equities, bonds, and commodities.
FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility
The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference.
Is the US economy really that different since COVID?
US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019.
Adopt a new vantage point for diversifying your portfolio
Supriya Menon, Alex King and John Mullins explore why a diversified mixed of fixed income exposure is a key component of a nuanced approach to diversification in today's cyclical macro regime.
Long/short investing in European equities' growing dispersion
We explore how growing dispersion in European equity markets is driving opportunities for long/short investors, fueled by structurally higher inflation, changing market leadership, and a renewed focus on valuation.
The great American labor shortage: Causes, consequences, and solutions
Shifting demographics suggest that US labor markets will remain tight in years to come, with major implications for income inequality, investment spending, and government policy.
URL References
Related Insights