What do the US election results mean for investors?
The US election results could have significant implications for the global economy and capital markets. Our panel of experts provides a thorough analysis of what happened and explores potential market impacts.
Monthly Asset Allocation Outlook
Wondering how to reposition your portfolio amid election-related uncertainty? Explore the latest monthly snapshot of our Multi-Asset Team’s asset class views.
Take it “ease”-y
Tim Antonelli, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy – Insurance and Portfolio Manager, explains why he thinks insurers should consider locking in current yields and sticking with global equity exposure.
Sahm rules are meant to be broken
Fed easing is finally here and fundamentals remain favorable. But what about that election? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
The US elections through the eyes of a European investor
Supriya Menon, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy – EMEA, explores what potentially material implications upcoming US elections could have for European investors and identifies key areas to monitor closely.
Picture this: Our forecast in 7 charts
What should investors expect for the remainder of 2024? View a visual summary of our Investment Outlook in seven compelling charts.
Four investment perspectives amid a pivotal US election
How can investors reposition portfolios for a pivotal but highly unpredictable US elections? Nick Samouilhan explores potential avenues in conversation with three leading portfolio managers.
Time to capitalise on the evolving role of bonds?
We outline why we think the new economic era is elevating the role of bonds as a source of attractive and stable income, downside protection and portfolio diversification.
A new economic era: three reasons to revisit bonds?
Investment Director Marco Giordano explains why he believes the new economic era is creating a wide range of opportunities for research-driven bond strategies to offer investors stable income combined with downside protection and diversification.
Capital securities: Why these hybrid investments may offer a compelling risk/reward profile
Members of our Fixed Income team explain why capital securities, a hybrid asset class that shares characteristics of bonds and stocks, may offer attractive diversification, income, and return potential.
Private placements: A primer for corporate DB plans preparing to derisk
With many corporate DB plans exploring derisking opportunities, Portfolio Manager Elisabeth Perenick and Multi-Asset Strategist Amy Trainor discuss the potential role that private investment-grade credit, or private placements, could play and consider common questions about liquidity and allocation sizing.
Massive market sell-off: Justified or an overreaction?
What's behind the global market meltdown, and what should investors consider doing? Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson shares her views.
Global macro strategies: Multi-dimensional tools for an era of economic change
With the global economic environment creating potential opportunities for macro investors, we consider the heterogeneity of the global macro strategy universe, the case for combining different styles, and the choice between a single- and a multi-portfolio manager approach.
Does the US election even matter? Thoughts on politics, Fed policy, and portfolios
What's next for interest rates and what impact will the US election have? Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros share their outlook and discuss the asset allocation implications.
The AI effect: Time to rethink your technology exposure?
Will AI fulfill the market's high expectations? Will it continue to drive market concentration? Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Global Industry Analyst Brian Barbetta, co-head of our Technology team, discuss the outlook and the asset allocation implications.
Come on in, the water’s fine! Ready for a surplus summer
Tim Antonelli, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy – Insurance and Portfolio Manager, explains why he continues to see reserve fixed income as the sweet spot for insurers and why there may be upside for equities.
Breaking concentration: big picture thinking with small-cap equities
How to overcome the risks associated with today's concentrated market? Investment Director John Mullins explores why small-cap equities could be part of the answer.
All-time highs and CPIs: What comes next?
Global fundamentals have kept markets content so far this year, but will politics sour the mood? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their views on the second half of 2024, including on equities, bonds, and commodities.
Investing in “3D”: Forces shaping alternatives opportunities in 2024
Multi-Asset Strategists Adam Berger and Nick Samouilhan offer six ideas from the hedge fund and liquid alternatives investment space, from global macro to multi-strategy approaches.
Factors to consider when allocating to US small-cap stocks
From avoiding "junk" to holding on to "graduates," members of our Fundamental Factor Team share their research insights on the pursuit of alpha in the small-cap space.
As India goes to the polls, is the case for Indian equities still compelling?
While current Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to secure a third term, a full-scale win is not a foregone conclusion. Against this backdrop and continued investor enthusiasm for Indian equities, Equity Portfolio Manager Niraj Bhagwat and Investment Director Philip Brooks assess the macro case for India. Are higher valuations justified?
Value stocks: Rules of thumb are meant to be broken
What will it take for value stocks to bounce back from a long period of underperformance? Members of our iStrat Team say that, conventional wisdom aside, it's not all about the economic cycle and offer their outlook for the next three to five years.
Structuring core fixed income: A constructive view on market and macro conditions
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Connor Fitzgerald discuss the interest-rate environment and the fundamental picture in investment-grade credit and high yield.
New era demands a nimble approach to credit
Our expert explains why deep research and an active approach are effective ways for fixed income investors to uncover credit opportunities in today's market.
With the Fed on hold, is the case for bonds kaput?
Amid worries about sticky inflation, the market has scaled back its expectations for interest rate cuts this year. But even if rate cuts are on hold a while longer, members of our Multi-Asset Team still think investors should consider a move from cash to bonds.
What could change the trajectory of value stocks?
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Equity Portfolio Manager Nataliya Kofman discuss “resilient” value stocks, disruptive themes, and attractive sector- and country-level opportunities.
Small-cap stocks: Watching for mean reversion, technology diffusion, and the next inflection point
Our experts discuss factors that could help small-cap stocks rebound and the search for winners in this inefficient segment of the market.
Exploring active opportunities amid continued regime change
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, APAC, Nick Samouilhan outlines why today's environment of dispersion, divergence and disruption offers potentially compelling opportunities for active investors.
Can hedge funds play the role?
How should investors select the most suitable types of hedge funds for specific roles? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer a simple and intuitive framework that can help.
4 equity themes: Budding opportunities in small caps and more
Our expert highlights 4 areas where he sees opportunity in global equity markets.
Picking the right building blocks for a climate-aware portfolio
For asset owners integrating climate change into their multi-asset portfolios, members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer five important insights.
Japan equity: Reason to believe
Our expert argues that corporate governance reform and the Japanese economy's escape from persistent deflation have laid the groundwork for a sustainable equity rally.
Do fundamentals support a risk-on tilt?
Surprisingly strong economic growth, declining inflation, easy financial conditions — can it get any better for markets? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
A blueprint for building climate-aware multi-asset portfolios
Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group take a deep dive on the issues asset owners should consider when choosing climate-aware portfolio building blocks, from the evolving opportunity set to the active/passive decision.
No bulls in the China shop?
John Mullins, Irmak Surenkok and Steven Ye assess the investment debate surrounding China's prolonged underperformance and outline three investment ideas for active investors to consider.
How to nurture a growth mindset in a higher-yielding landscape
In a higher-yield world, can fixed income deliver meaningful growth? John Mullins, Supriya Menon and Alex King explore how high-yield bonds may offer a powerful opportunity for growth - as well as a cushion against uncertainty.
Income: the hard worker in your portfolio deserves more credit
Income from cash is good but income from bonds is better. In a less certain macro environment, Alex King, Supriya Menon and John Mullins think the case for income only gets stronger. How can investors make the most of opportunities?
Adopt a new vantage point for diversifying your portfolio
Supriya Menon, Alex King and John Mullins explore why a diversified mixed of fixed income exposure is a key component of a nuanced approach to diversification in today's cyclical macro regime.
Why high-yield investors should keep a close eye on the default cycle
A peak in defaults may not be far off. What does this mean for investors considering a move to high yield?
Facing the inflation dilemma head on
Inflation has already fallen much quicker than most expected. However, there are convincing reasons why inflation might be higher and more volatile going forward. What are the implications for asset allocation?
Managing currency exposure in multi-asset portfolios: how to weigh the trade-offs and impact
Nick Samouilhan, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy – APAC, evaluates the trade-offs of different currency hedging approaches and offers a novel framework for gauging their potential portfolio impact.
Top 5 fixed income ideas for 2024
With central banks set to pivot to accommodative policy, and elevated yields still prevailing, we think fixed income offers compelling opportunities. Here we share our top five ideas.
Top of Mind: The allocator’s checklist for 2024 and beyond
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger offers near- and longer-term ideas for allocators, including thoughts on areas where capital is scarce, alternatives may be attractive, and risks may bear watching.
Navigating a volatile reality: three ideas for 2024 and beyond
2023 saw investors grapple with a new, more volatile reality. How should portfolios be positioned for opportunities and challenges in 2024?
Multi-Asset Market Outlook
To help think through the asset allocation outlook and implications for 2023, we offer views from iStrat, our investment strategy and solutions group
Fork in the road: Slowdown or reacceleration ahead?
Markets seem to expect a much smoother ride in 2024, but are they too optimistic? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
Why income-seeking investors need to look across asset classes
Income plays an even more crucial role in portfolios than many of us realise, contributing a significant portion of returns for multi-asset portfolios. But with cash rates at around 5%, the world of income has changed. This should prompt investors to take a fresh look across asset classes to see where opportunities lie.
Credit: Better opportunities to add risk on the horizon
Our experts review current macro dynamics impacting the bond market and discuss where they see opportunities and risks across credit sectors.
Will a “Goldilocks” economy be just right for equity markets?
We provide an outlook on the ongoing shift to new investment regime, and the market segments that we expect will most heavily influence global equity performance in the coming year.
Learning to love (or live with) a late-cycle environment
Are we actually in a late-cycle environment and, if so, how should allocators respond? Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger offers guidance, including on portfolio positioning, big cycle bets, and security selection.
Rebalancing a multi-asset portfolio: A guide to the choices and trade-offs
Many investors wrestle with portfolio rebalancing decisions, particularly in volatile environments. In this paper, members of our Investment Strategy Team argue for a well-structured rebalancing policy and share research on different approaches and common implementation considerations.
2024 Insurance Outlook: Position portfolios for the unexpected
Tim Antonelli offers two critical ideas for insurers' 2024 investment planning: doubling down on diversification and rethinking risk, including geopolitical and default risk.
Embracing uncertainty: Three alternatives ideas for a macro-driven world
Even as investors wrestle with the economic unknowns heading into 2024, Multi-Asset Strategists Nick Samouilhan and Adam Berger see opportunities to put alternative investments to work.
Beyond China: what does the rest of the EM equity world have to offer?
For investors contemplating a separate allocation to EM ex-China equities, members of our iStrat Team share their research on the composition of the opportunity set, the growing divergence in the behavior of EM ex-China equities and Chinese equities, and the long-term market outlook.
You snooze, you may lose: The case for bonds
There are signs the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, but some uncertainty remains. With that in mind, Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson considers the timing of a move from cash to bonds.
Deglobalisation and divergence: opportunity or threat?
John Butler and Supriya Menon discuss the drivers underpinning growing macroeconomic divergence and deglobalisation and what it may mean for asset allocators.
Is bad news for the economy actually good news for markets?
While it has taken longer than expected, higher interest rates are starting to take their toll on the global economy and the "bad news is good news" market narrative could be changing. Members of our Investment Strategy team offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
The “cleanest dirty shirt” now has too many stains
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager posits that US fiscal profligacy will change the game for asset allocators.
Income investing in multi-asset portfolios: Tipping the balance in your favour
Income can play a crucial role in the pursuit of investment objectives over time, but research from our iStrat Team argues for a balanced approach to asset allocation decisions given the potential trade-offs between income and capital return, risk, and portfolio diversification.
Role, risk, and residual alpha: A framework for manager research
With many asset owners revisiting their strategic asset allocation and considering changes in their investment line-up, Director of Manager Research Kat Price and Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger offer their views on manager selection best practices.
A test for the global economy
What are the similarities and differences between the US regional banking crisis and 2008's global financial crisis? How likely is a recession? Should investors be focusing on value or growth? In this podcast, Macro Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson shares her interpretation of where the economy is headed, outlining where the risks and opportunities may lie for investors in the next 12 months.
How a thematic approach can help harness change within portfolios
Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon and Investment Director Andrew Sharp-Paul discuss why a thematic approach can help harness change within portfolios against a structurally different macroeconomic backdrop.
How to weather the storm: A roadmap for more resilient portfolios
As we face a new era of elevated market and cycle volatility, Co-Head of Investment Strategy Natasha Brook-Walters assesses how asset owners can ensure that their portfolios are up for the challenge.
Multi-Asset Outlook: A recession is looming…or is it?
The economy has largely shrugged off the banking crisis and other concerns this year, while riding positive sentiment driven by AI enthusiasm and a possible soft landing. Members of our Investment Strategy team offer their macro and market outlook for the second half of the year, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
Is your asset allocation ready for the realities of climate change?
Our Investment Strategy Team shares key findings from the research behind their climate-aware strategic asset allocation (SAA) approach, including challenges and trade-offs that asset owners should understand.
Time for a new playbook on bonds
Is it time to add to fixed income allocations? Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti offer their views, as well as thoughts on specific areas of opportunity.
Climate resiliency factor: Helping asset owners go “long” climate change
We aim to offer asset owners an intuitive way to integrate climate risks into their portfolios and shift their expected return profile for better potential outcomes.
Is the structural case for inflation still intact?
Even if inflation cools in the coming months, members of our Investment Strategy team expect it to be "stickier" over the long term. Find out how that might impact asset allocation decisions.
EM equities: Can they prove the doubters wrong?
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger offers six reasons that EM equity performance could be much more compelling in the decade ahead, from attractive valuations to economic tailwinds to mean reversion in the US dollar.
Have you looked at Brazilian equities lately?
Equity Research Analyst David Reid believes now is an opportune time for EM equity investors to consider implementing or augmenting portfolio allocations to Brazilian stocks.
The alpha equation: Balancing active risk sources in multi-asset portfolios
Members of our iStrat Team share their research on the process of deciding how much active risk to take at the asset class and security levels in pursuit of alpha objectives. They also offer a step-by-step framework for implementing the research findings.
Today’s sweet spot for yield, the growing role of alts
Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli provides his latest multi-asset views for insurers, with an emphasis on the value of core fixed income in today's environment.
Win by losing? The surprising truth about long-term active management
Research shows that even the best managers have had to bounce back from periods of underperformance. For asset owners who've invested time and effort to find these managers, the data argues for cultivating a long-term mindset.
The state of climate investing: Asset owner perspectives
Discover what we learned from our 2022 global study on asset owners' interest and engagement around climate investing.
Designing a climate-aware strategic asset allocation
Members of our Investment Strategy Team explain how they incorporate climate metrics into their asset allocation optimization process. They also discuss implementation — the choice of specific climate-aware building blocks and strategies to express the desired asset allocation.
How will asset prices be affected by climate risk? Members of our Investment Strategy team explain how they're seeking to answer that question with their new climate-aware capital market assumptions.
The allocator’s perspective: three key decisions on EM equities
How can investors best access opportunities within an improving outlook for emerging market equities? Natasha Brook-Walters, co-head of iStrat, shares three key decision points for allocators.
Using market-implied regimes to help build more resilient portfolios
Markets may fluctuate between different regimes, but how exactly should those regimes be defined? Our iStrat Team offers research on their market behavior-based approach and explains how it may aid in constructing portfolios that are better able to withstand the ups and downs of different environments.
SVB collapse: What are the implications?
Multi-Asset Strategist Supriya Menon shares her latest perspectives on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank Financial Group (SVB) and the unfolding implications for investors. (Published 14 March 2023)
On to the next crisis: Glimpsing a post-SVB world
Amid the turmoil in the US banking sector, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests investors consider pivoting to a “risk-management mode” that favors higher-quality assets. (Published 14 March 2023)
More currency volatility ahead: Which hedges could help?
To help investors begin to think about elevated currency risk, as well as opportunities to generate alpha through active currency management, members of our iStrat Team offer an overview of hedging approaches and their potential tradeoffs.
Sector rotation opportunities for nimble credit investors
Following a credit market rally, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn still sees value in higher-yielding sectors but believes investors should stay nimble.
The churning tides of portfolio liquidity: How to avoid being left high and dry
Markets have sent asset owners some strong reminders of the need to think about liquidity risk across a portfolio and to plan for uncertainty. To help, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger proposes a framework based on the intended uses and sources of liquidity.
What’s driving convertibles in 2023?
Following a challenging 2022, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mike Barry and Investment Director Raina Dunkelberger highlight three tailwinds that may help turn the tide for convertibles.
The denominator effect: Thoughts on the rise in private equity allocations
The sharp drop in public markets has left many asset owners with above-target exposure to private assets, raising a number of governance questions. Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger considers the likely responses and their potential pros and cons.
An allocator’s playbook for 2023
Natasha Brook-Walters, co-head of iStrat, examines the three objectives allocators may wish to focus on in 2023.
CLOs: Poised to outperform in 2023?
Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have been sparking investor interest lately — and with good reason, say Investment Director Andrew Bayerl and Investment Specialist Celene Klimas.
Multi-Asset Outlook — A rocky road to recovery in 2023
Markets may be jumping the gun when it comes to expectations for a policy pivot and the likely risk-asset rewards. Members of our Investment Strategy team still see bumps in the economic road, though their outlook has brightened a bit when it comes to China and other emerging markets.
Small-cap value: Strong past, bright future?
While equity markets have had a challenging recent past, history teaches us that there may be several reasons to be optimistic about small-cap value.
Adding thematic equity investments to a multi-asset portfolio: An allocator’s handbook
Thematic investing may add a powerful return engine to portfolios, but allocators sometimes struggle with implementation decisions. Members of our Investment Strategy Team offer a framework for thinking about allocation size, strategy selection, and performance evaluation.
Take credit: Our five best credit market ideas for 2023
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights credit market opportunities that he expects to arise over the course of 2023, against a backdrop of slowing growth.
High yield: Opportunity to pivot in 2023?
Our high-yield bond portfolio managers have a guardedly optimistic outlook on the market and believe security selection will be key to benchmark-relative outperformance in 2023.
2023 Insurance Outlook: Resolve to solve with a restocked toolkit
Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli and Insurance Strategist Max Davies share four actionable ideas designed to help insurers successfully navigate 2023.
China equity in 2023: Year of the stock picker
Despite the potential risks of investing in China equity, Equity Portfolio Manager Bo Meunier believes there are attractive opportunities for patient, discerning stock pickers.
Currency outlook: Nearing the end of USD exceptionalism?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Martin Harvey and Investment Communications Manager Jitu Naidu consider the present state of and outlook for the US dollar.
Pivoting from innovation and growth to stability and value
In a more volatile world, stability may take priority over innovation, and that, explains Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger, would tend to favor value stocks over growth stocks.
Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.
Opportunity in disguise: Why bad news may be good for alternatives in 2023
Multi-Asset Strategists Nick Samouilhan and Adam Berger explain how alternative investments may help allocators make tailwinds out of macro and market headwinds in the year ahead.
Multi-Asset Outlook — Higher rates for longer: What does it mean for markets?
For central banks, the inflation fight is on, but the policy and market responses will vary in the coming months. Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Supriya Menon discuss the implications for equities, bonds, and commodities.
Pivot points: Five portfolio positioning ideas for the new market regime
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger looks at five ways in which the world may be very different in the coming decade and how they could influence the next wave of investment winners.
Wellington investor survey: inflationary Europe seen as top “problem child” of 2023
In the latest Wellington investor survey, inflationary Europe was seen as the top "problem child" of 2023.
Three tailwinds that could power CLO equity in 2023 and beyond
Three members of our fixed income team argue that the headwinds currently facing CLO equity should give way to improved returns in 2023 and beyond.
India equity: An unsung long-term performance story
Despite strong long-term performance, Indian equities are often overlooked. That may be a mistake, say Equity Portfolio Manager Niraj Bhagwat and Investment Director Philip Brooks.
China equity: Is today's investor pessimism overdone?
The short answer is yes, say Equity Portfolio Manager Niraj Bhagwat and Investment Director Philip Brooks, who believe China may offer a short-term buying opportunity.
Investors seeking a sound decumulation strategy must consider a host of variables, including risks that weren't on the radar when they were accumulating assets.
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Equity Market Outlook
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