This doesn’t tighten monetary policy
The immediate objective of the BOJ’s latest YCC announcement was to signal to financial markets that policymakers want to avoid an abrupt sell-off in rates, preferring a gradual “managed” process that avoids a financial stability event.
Therefore, rather than monetary tightening, in our view, the YCC adjustments represent a move away from adding more monetary stimulus. The latest tweak is an adjustment to avoid the risk that the central bank is forced to accelerate its balance-sheet expansion, as policymakers have the option to intervene if yields change too quickly. If yields rise because the medium-term inflation outlook improves, the BOJ will no longer be tied to further monetary stimulus, which was previously the case. We anticipate further YCC adjustments in the first quarter of 2024 as the reflation theme continues to expand and improved economic growth potential becomes more embedded in market expectations.
What will policymakers do next?
The inflation outlook is undoubtedly shifting and, with the BOJ gradually buying into the sustainability of inflation, a rate hike is now in sight. Policymakers have revised up their core inflation forecasts for fiscal year 2024 from 1.9% to 2.8% and nudged up projections for fiscal year 2025 from 1.6% to 1.7%. If wages are shaping up to be at or above 2.5%, which we think is a likely scenario, inflation projections for 2025 will be revised upwards again and that, in our view, could be the trigger for a hike. This could happen as early as the first quarter of 2024, marking the formal exit from negative interest rates in Japan.
Bottom line
The bigger picture is that YCC adjustments are still very slow and subtle and Japanese monetary policy remains ultra-loose. Moreover, the Japanese government has announced more fiscal stimulus for the economy to help cushion the impact of rising prices, with a ¥17 trillion (US$113 billion) package that includes temporary tax cuts and rebates for households. While the BOJ may be stepping away from a stance that forced it to expand its balance sheet, the overall set of policies in Japan, when fiscal stimulus is considered too, is looser, not tighter, which may force the central bank to hike interest rates sooner than the market anticipates.
Japan equity: Reason to believe
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Toshiki Izumi, CFA, CMA