John Butler

The year of uncertainty: 5 macro themes to watch in 2025

Macro Strategists John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan outline five macro themes for investors to watch in 2025 in a year they see defined by exceptional uncertainty and an extraordinary macroeconomic backdrop.

By

John Butler

Eoin O'Callaghan

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6 min

Article

2025-11-30

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Global Economic Outlook

Our macro strategists continue to expect that the interlinkages between countries, central bank policies, and market pricing will change, creating potentially attractive opportunities for active portfolio management and security selection.

Multiple authors

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Article

2025-11-30

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Markets in 2025: asleep at the wheel or in the driving seat?

Watch the conversation with Head of Macro Strategy John Butler as he discusses recent macro events and potential 2025 market outcomes for investors.

By

John Butler

Will Lockhart

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25 min

Event replay

2025-11-30

Macro and market Interest rates Monetary policy Content CoE Program Global Program Article

Can central bank independence survive?

Can central bank independence survive? Macro Strategist John Butler discusses the challenges faced by central banks in an increasingly fraught political environment and how investors should adjust.

By

John Butler

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5 min

Article

2025-09-30

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Macro investing in a changing world

Head of liquid alternatives and hedge funds, Mark Sullivan, and investment director of diversifying strategies, Chris Perret, share their views on why the multidimensionality of macro investment approaches may help provide investors a smoother path forward amid an increasingly uncertain macro and geopolitical backdrop.

By

Mark Sullivan, CFA, CMT

Christopher Perret, CFA, CAIA

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31:49 min

Podcast

Macro and market Japan Fixed income Equity Macro Interest rates Article

Four questions for investors after Japan’s historic hike

With the Bank of Japan having finally moved out of negative rates, Macro Strategist John Butler identifies the four key questions he believes investors should focus on.

By

John Butler

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5 min

Article

2025-04-30

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Macro and market Portfolio strategy Fixed income Macro Article

Back to the future: a new economic era

Macro Strategist John Butler explores why he believes the old macroeconomic model is broken and how best to navigate a new era of investing.

By

John Butler

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5 min

Article

2025-01-31

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Macro and market Economic cycle Active management Fixed income Multi-asset Macro Video

How to reposition for a new economic era?

In this short video, Macro Strategist John Butler outlines the key features of the new economic era we are now entering.

By

John Butler

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4 min

Video

2025-03-31

Macro and market Economic cycle Portfolio strategy Multi-asset Macro Market commentary Thematic exposure Outlook Article

Trends and transformation distilled: Our 2024 outlook in brief

Our experts explore investment opportunities and risks for the year ahead.

Multiple authors

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Article

2025-02-28

Germany Macro and market Fixed income Macro Fiscal policy Article

Why structural change in Germany may impact investors globally

Macro Strategists John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan discuss why they believe the structural changes currently underway in Germany will impact investors globally.

By

John Butler

Eoin O'Callaghan

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Article

2025-01-31

Outlook Macro and market Interest rates Germany Macro Economic cycle Fixed income program Article

2024: A year of intensifying macro regime change?

John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan explore why 2024 could be a year of intensifying macro regime change and what it means for investors.

By

John Butler

Eoin O'Callaghan

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Article

2024-11-30

Macro and market Interest rates Artificial intelligence (AI) Macro hedge funds EM debt Government bonds Credit High yield Investment grade Fixed income Alternatives Macro Alternatives investing Article

Macro implications of the AI revolution: is the market right?

Macro Strategist John Butler sets out an initial framework to help answer key questions about the potential macro impact of artificial intelligence.

By

John Butler

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Article

2024-11-30

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Deglobalisation and divergence: opportunity or threat?

John Butler and Supriya Menon discuss the drivers underpinning growing macroeconomic divergence and deglobalisation and what it may mean for asset allocators.

By

John Butler

Supriya Menon

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Article

2024-10-31

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Macro risks to watch in this rapidly oscillating global cycle

Macro Strategist John Butler explores the two key questions he believes macro investors should focus on in the current volatile environment.

By

John Butler

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

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Macro and market Economic cycle Portfolio construction Alternatives Fixed income Monetary policy Inflation Risk management Alternatives investing Article

What does the new macro regime mean for investors?

In this Q&A with two senior market practitioners we explore what the new macro regime means for investors and what to expect next.

By

John Butler

Mark Sullivan, CFA, CMT

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Article

2024-03-31

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Why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan

Macro Strategist John Butler explores why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan and what is likely to happen next.

By

John Butler

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Quick Take

2024-01-31

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Perspectives on today’s alternative investment environment

Take a quick tour of the alternative investment environment with investors from across our macro research and hedge fund teams, as they explore the geopolitical landscape, macro volatility, and key trends like climate-change adaptation and digital tokenization.

Multiple authors

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Video

2023-11-30

Europe Inflation Economic cycle Outlook No Optimizely Monetary policy Interest rates Fiscal policy Multi-asset Article

Why Europe could surprise in 2023

Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.

By

Eoin O'Callaghan

John Butler

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Article

2023-12-31

Inflation Volatility Economic cycle Alternatives investing Outlook No Optimizely Multi-asset Fixed income Equity Alternatives Video

A new economic era: Why inflation, volatility, and cycles are back

Macro Strategist John Butler argues that a seismic global shift is underway that will disrupt the macro dynamics of the past two decades, challenging long-held investment assumptions.

By

John Butler

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Video

2023-12-31

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After the UK sell-off: what’s next for global markets and investors?

Co-Head of Investment Strategy Natasha Brook-Walters and Head of Macro Strategy John Butler discuss the implications of the recent sell-off in UK markets for global markets and investors.

By

Natasha Brook-Walters

John Butler

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Article

2022-12-30

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Eyes on Ukraine: Europe's energy crisis

The war continues to exacerbate the twin crises of energy availability and affordability. We explore how the situation may take shape from here.

By

Tim Casaletto

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25:30 min

Podcast

Volatility Fiscal policy Monetary policy Currency Interest rates Economic cycle United Kingdom Article

UK in the eye of the storm: which countries might be next?

Macro Strategist John Butler provides his latest take on what's happening in the UK and its broader global implications.

By

John Butler

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Article

2022-12-31

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China Monetary policy Geopolitical Alternatives investing Volatility Economic cycle Americas APAC EMEA Article

A shifting macro landscape: QE, China, and Europe

We explore the changing macro environment, highlighting the investment implications of the end of quantitative easing programs, the state of the Chinese cycle, and an evolving outlook on Europe.

By

John Butler

Mark Sullivan, CFA, CMT

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Article

2023-08-31

Outlook Inflation Volatility Economic cycle Alternatives Equity Multi-asset Article

Mid-2022 Global Economic Outlook

We believe heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and the new macro environment of deglobalization, higher inflation, greater global cyclicality and volatility will disrupt and drive markets.

Multiple authors

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Article

2023-07-31

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Geopolitical Russia Europe Fiscal policy Monetary policy Energy Article

How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine transform the euro area? Four potential paths

As the tragedy in Ukraine unfolds, Macro Strategist John Butler assesses possible implications of the conflict for Europe and the euro area. He outlines four potential paths.

By

John Butler

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Article

2022-06-30

Europe Inflation Quick Take

Euro area: Challenging long-held assumptions

We believe 2022 will be the year when macroeconomic and political developments challenge two deep-rooted misperceptions about the euro area:

By

John Butler

Eoin O'Callaghan

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Quick Take

2022-04-30

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