Economic cycle

Showing of Insights Posts
financial market review
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Quarterly Market Review

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

Continue reading
event
18 min
Whitepaper
2026-10-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
monthly market snapshot
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Monthly Market Review — September 2024

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

Continue reading
event
18 min
Whitepaper
2025-10-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
157474938
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

What is “the economic cycle,” anyway?

See why the relationship between asset prices and the economic cycle is more complex than you might think, why a US recession is unlikely, and what a more dovish Fed could mean for the US and global markets.

Continue reading
event
5 min
Article
2025-10-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
155152960
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Chart in Focus: What does the rate cut mean for equities and bonds?

Are rate cuts positive? On the heels of the much-anticipated initial Fed cut, in this article we look to historic precedent for where the markets could go in the coming months.

Continue reading
event
3 min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
monthly market snapshot
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Monthly Market Review — August 2024

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

Continue reading
event
12 min
Article
2025-09-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
monthly market snapshot
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Monthly Market Review — July 2024

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

Continue reading
event
12 min
Article
2025-08-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
White House South Portico
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Harris vs Trump: The foreign policy and investment implications

Our expert examines expected Harris and Trump foreign policies and their potential impact on the investment landscape.

Continue reading
event
4 min
Article
2025-02-28
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1153764271
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Walking a mile in Fed Chair Powell’s shoes

A slow roll on rate cuts by the Fed could frustrate markets and lead to more volatility ahead of the September FOMC meeting. See our take on what to expect for the next few weeks.

Continue reading
event
4 min
Article
2025-08-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1096496308
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Still waiting…Fed wants more data before cutting policy rates

Our expert dives into Fed policy following the July FMOC meeting.

Continue reading
event
3 min
Article
2024-10-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
multi-family-housing-neoclassical-masonic
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Office to multifamily conversions: Implications for CMBS investors

Our experts explore the emerging trend in some US cities of converting office space into multi-family units and its implications for bond investors.

Continue reading
event
5 min
Article
2025-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
monthly-market-snapshot-november-2023-173556726-v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Financial Market Review

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

Continue reading
event
17 min
Article
2026-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
monthly-market-snapshot-november-2023-173556726-v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Monthly Market Snapshot — June 2024

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

Continue reading
event
17 min
Whitepaper
2025-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1486716455
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Disappearing unicorns: The importance of capital efficiency in a higher-for-longer rate environment

Members of our late-state growth equity team share their views on the impact of interest rates on venture capital activity — including the ability of companies to reach “unicorns” status.

Continue reading
event
8 min
Whitepaper
2025-07-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs 4_sd_v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Alternative Investment Outlook

This collection provides timely ideas across the spectrum of alternative investments -- including hedge funds, private equity, and private credit.

Continue reading
event
Article
2025-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
157561697
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

When the Fed sneezes, the ECB… cuts rates regardless?

Since the late 1990s, when the US cycle turned, the rest of the world generally followed, with a lag. However, the new economic era is likely to result in greater cyclical divergence between countries and the need for different central bank responses. How should investors think about the age of economic divergence?

Continue reading
event
7 min
Article
2025-03-21
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1489996632
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Has the European credit cycle been extended?

2024 has kept fixed income investors busy. Yet, despite lingering inflation and rate volatility, European credit markets have remained strong. Are we looking at an extended credit cycle? And if so, what does this mean for investors?

Continue reading
event
8 min
Article
2025-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs 4_sd_v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Global Economic Outlook

Our macro strategists continue to expect that the interlinkages between countries, central bank policies, and market pricing will change, creating potentially attractive opportunities for active portfolio management and security selection.

Continue reading
event
Article
2025-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs 4_sd_v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Governments have been slow to reduce their fiscal deficits — it could cost them

Our expert explores the investment implications of continued excessive deficit spending by G7 countries.

Continue reading
event
4 min
Article
2025-06-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
monthly-market-snapshot-november-2023-173556726-v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Monthly Market Snapshot — April 2024

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

Continue reading
event
20 min
Whitepaper
2025-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1401171512
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Value stocks: Rules of thumb are meant to be broken

What will it take for value stocks to bounce back from a long period of underperformance? Members of our iStrat Team say that, conventional wisdom aside, it's not all about the economic cycle and offer their outlook for the next three to five years.

Continue reading
event
9 min
Article
2026-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1384219104
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Exploring active opportunities amid continued regime change

Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, APAC, Nick Samouilhan outlines why today's environment of dispersion, divergence and disruption offers potentially compelling opportunities for active investors.

Continue reading
event
2 min
Video
2025-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1096496308
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Powell back to waiting on inflation data

Our expert's key takeaways from the May FOMC meeting.

Continue reading
event
2 min
Article
2025-05-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1384219104
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Exploring active opportunities: Q2 2024

Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, APAC, Nick Samouilhan outlines why today's environment of dispersion, divergence and disruption offers potentially compelling opportunities for active investors.

Continue reading
event
2 min
Video
2025-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1300497464
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

The Fed’s lessons learned from its COVID response

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana breaks down the central bank's policy decisions during the pandemic and explains how they continue to affect financial markets.

Continue reading
event
6 min
Article
2025-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
monthly-market-snapshot-november-2023-173556726-v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Financial Market Review

A quarterly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

Continue reading
event
19 min
Whitepaper
2025-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
monthly-market-snapshot-november-2023-173556726-v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Monthly Market Snapshot — March 2024

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

Continue reading
event
20 min
Whitepaper
2025-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
95145-maoartwork-final2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Do fundamentals support a risk-on tilt?

Surprisingly strong economic growth, declining inflation, easy financial conditions — can it get any better for markets? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities. 

Continue reading
event
Article
2025-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
monthly-market-snapshot-november-2023-173556726-v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Monthly Market Snapshot — February 2024

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

Continue reading
event
Whitepaper
2025-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1359344663
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Agency MBS key questions for 2024

Is there room for mortgage spreads to tighten further? Brian Conroy and Joseph Marvan examine this and seven other questions that will be significant for the agency MBS market in 2024.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2025-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
645912480
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Is the US economy really that different since COVID?

US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019. 

Continue reading
event
Article
2025-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
bee-hero-navy-v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Income: the hard worker in your portfolio deserves more credit

Income from cash is good but income from bonds is better. In a less certain macro environment, Alex King, Supriya Menon and John Mullins think the case for income only gets stronger. How can investors make the most of opportunities? 

Continue reading
event
5 min
Article
2025-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
wellington-swift-broken-plate-banner
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

How to reposition for a new economic era?

In this short video, Macro Strategist John Butler outlines the key features of the new economic era we are now entering.

Continue reading
event
4 min
Video
2025-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
164652560
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Why high-yield investors should keep a close eye on the default cycle

A peak in defaults may not be far off. What does this mean for investors considering a move to high yield? 

Continue reading
event
Article
2025-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
monthly-market-snapshot-november-2023-173556726-v2
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Monthly Market Snapshot — January 2024

A monthly update on equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.

Continue reading
event
Whitepaper
2025-02-28
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Top 5 fixed income ideas for 2024

With central banks set to pivot to accommodative policy, and elevated yields still prevailing, we think fixed income offers compelling opportunities. Here we share our top five ideas.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2025-02-28
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
96908-2024-outlook-768x450
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Trends and transformation distilled: Our 2024 outlook in brief

Our experts explore investment opportunities and risks for the year ahead.

Continue reading
event
Article
2025-02-28
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1148429736
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Private market perspectives

Hear from private market experts across our early-stage venture, climate growth, late-stage biomedical, late-stage growth, private credit, and ESG  teams.  

Continue reading
event
Video
2025-01-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Bizarro World: Could 2024 be the opposite of 2023?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the dynamics that may upend investor expectations of a repeat of 2023 this year.

Continue reading
event
Quick Take
2025-01-17
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Fork in the road: Slowdown or reacceleration ahead?

Markets seem to expect a much smoother ride in 2024, but are they too optimistic? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities. 

Continue reading
event
Article
2026-01-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Will a “Goldilocks” economy be just right for equity markets?

We provide an outlook on the ongoing shift to new investment regime, and the market segments that we expect will most heavily influence global equity performance in the coming year. 

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-12-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Credit: Better opportunities to add risk on the horizon

Our experts review current macro dynamics impacting the bond market and discuss where they see opportunities and risks across credit sectors.

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-12-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1413013963
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Look past the cycle: The surprising total return potential of natural resources and commodities

Portfolio manager Nick Petrucelli explains the cyclical, structural, and macro tailwinds behind this opportunity.

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-12-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
Mid Year Outlook Designs
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

2024: A year of intensifying macro regime change?

John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan explore why 2024 could be a year of intensifying macro regime change and what it means for investors.

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-11-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
1145233383
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Deglobalisation and divergence: opportunity or threat?

John Butler and Supriya Menon discuss the drivers underpinning growing macroeconomic divergence and deglobalisation and what it may mean for asset allocators. 

Continue reading
event
Article
2024-10-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.