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Flexibility with focus: how to position fixed income for volatility

Martin Harvey, CFA, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager
Marco Giordano, Investment Director
January 2025
7 min read
2026-01-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.

After the inflation shock of 2021 – 2022 triggered a rapid rise in interest rates across most developed markets, cash and bond investors enjoyed a welcome boost in income thanks to the return of attractive yields. 

Now, central banks have started to reduce rates. This should benefit bond investors by providing capital appreciation along with still high income. However, the path ahead may require skillful navigation, given stubborn inflation, growing differences in economic growth trajectories across countries and divergence in policymakers’ responses. Shifting geopolitics — especially the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency — present another factor of unpredictability. How should investors think about repositioning their portfolios for this prevailing uncertainty?

Adapting to a structurally different macro background

Today’s uncertain outlook reflects a structural regime change that we believe investors need to be attuned to. The key features of this new economic era include:

  • a less stable economic environment with more frequent shorter cycles;
  • higher and more volatile inflation;
  • increased geopolitical rivalry and divergence as globalisation slows and, in some areas, even reverses; and
  • structurally higher government intervention and fiscal spending.

Central banks are no longer acting as a source of stability, as they are caught between the need to contain inflation and the desire to avoid engineering the economic slowdown that may be needed to bring inflation durably back in line with their targets. This dilemma will likely be exacerbated if the US tariff threat materialises as governments will likely have no other choice than to loosen the purse strings. Monetary policy decisions may well catch investors by surprise, with central banks taking potentially very different paths. For instance, depending on the scale of the impact of US tariffs on the European economy, the European Central Bank (ECB) could cut rates meaningfully below current market consensus. The ongoing political stalemate in France and the tail risks associated with the upcoming German election could also trigger a sudden repricing of interest-rate expectations within the euro area along with potentially sharp bouts of volatility. On the other hand, wage and inflation data in the UK may hamper the Bank of England’s efforts to continue its rate-cutting cycle. While a risk, this divergence also constitutes an opportunity for investors to capitalise on.

Going beyond cash or single instruments 

While short-term cash deposit accounts have done well over the past few years, we think they now come with a significant reinvestment risk, given declining rates. Unlike bonds, cash instruments do not benefit from the uptick in bond valuations that typically accompanies rate cuts, and income resets at lower levels, suggesting diversification into fixed income may be overdue. Many investors have already switched part of their cash holdings to domestic government bonds — with several governments now actively targeting retail investors — or other “safe-haven” instruments. However, in our view, further steps could now be warranted. While there is an important role for domestic government bonds in portfolios, complementing single-country exposure with a diversified high-quality global bond portfolio could:

  • mitigate reinvestment risk and help shield portfolios from excessive volatility;
  • diversify the significant beta risk embedded into a single-country issuer, which may become pronounced in today’s uncertain environment; and
  • offer the potential for capturing higher yields that may be available elsewhere.

Adopting a flexible fixed-income approach 

Targeted diversification does not necessarily mean having to take on significant duration or credit risk. In fact, we think that in an uncertain environment, flexibility can be a bond investor’s best friend. Specifically, we think high-quality, unconstrained approaches offer an attractive avenue to complement existing portfolios as they have limited average duration and credit exposure while offering diversification across the full gamut of, countries, sectors and themes.

And we think the signs are encouraging for flexible fixed-income strategies to continue their positive trajectory in today’s diverging world, offering both significant scope for downside protection and opportunities for upside potential in the event of market dislocations. We see various warning signs that sudden readjustments in market sentiment could occur in the year ahead.

  • For instance, at this stage, the US is following the playbook of Trump’s first election, with interest rates, the US dollar, and equity markets all spiking higher, but his policy programme is likely to lead to structurally higher inflation. This realisation may, over time, cause significant volatility in the US Treasury market. Elsewhere, Japan and the UK appear to be pursuing monetary policy that is in dissonance with the economic data, while the euro area is hobbled by political paralysis in France and Germany and the continued impact of the war in Ukraine; and
  • On the opportunity side, countries like Australia, New Zealand and Canada boast low levels of public debt but high private debt, meaning their central banks may be better equipped to deal with any financial instability and be more sensitive to a deterioration in the cycle. They could deliver better and more stable total returns given high starting points in yields. 

Bottom line

We believe investments in fixed income should seek to achieve three key objectives: 

  • reliable and recurring income, with a growth component
  • enhanced diversification and liquidity
  • capital preservation over the longer term

In today’s more unpredictable environment, we think these objectives can be best achieved by adopting a more flexible approach that targets a global opportunity set within robust risk constraints. In our view, having greater flexibility on duration, country and sector selection can help protect both income and capital during periods of heightened volatility. As such, we think this can be a powerful addition to most portfolios, helping to smooth the impact of volatility on single country or region allocations by diversifying exposures across diverging economic and policy cycles. 

In practice, there are a wide range of unconstrained strategies available in the market and investors will need to ensure that the chosen approach meets their specific requirements. Given the uncertain environment, one avenue investors may wish to pursue is allocating to flexible fixed-income strategies that place a higher emphasis on capital preservation and liquidity through higher exposures to high-quality government bonds, but still provide the potential for positive long-term returns through exposure to a rich, global opportunity set.

Experts

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