Fiscal policy

event April 2025

5 min

Article

2026-04-30

Fiscal policy Monetary policy Tactical allocation Content CoE Program Global Program Quarterly Asset Allocation Outlook Article

Oh baby, baby, it’s a wild world

Just one quarter into the year, many policy and economic assumptions have been turned on their head. What does it all mean for equity, bond, and commodity markets around the world? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their outlook.

By

Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson

Supriya Menon

event April 2025

12 min

Article

2026-03-31

Health care Macro and market Fiscal policy Content CoE Program Global Program USA Inflation Wellington on Washington and the World Article

Shrinking the government footprint: Medicaid cuts and America’s economic health

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan looks at what changes to the mammoth US Medicaid program could mean for economic growth, employment, inflation, and financial markets.

By

event March 2025

8 min

Article

2026-03-31

USA Fixed income Fiscal policy Content CoE Program Global Program Wellington on Washington and the World Government bonds Article

US debt dynamics: Is there a path to sustainability?

How worried should investors be about US debt sustainability? Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros discusses the implications of soaring US federal budget deficits and the likely bond market response.

By

event February 2025

5 min

Article

2026-02-28

Elections Fiscal policy Geopolitics Content CoE Program Global Program Opportunistic Fixed Income Fixed income Americas China EMEA Macro Yielding insights Article

What an “America first” foreign policy may mean for markets

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana explores the potential market impacts of President Trump's "America first" foreign policy. From regional hegemony to global economic dominance to tariffs applied for strategic geopolitical gain, discover how these shifts could affect investors.

By

event January 2025

6 min

Article

2026-01-31

Artificial intelligence (AI) Volatility Outlook Content CoE Program Global Program Multi-asset Fiscal policy Inflation Interest rates Article

Executive Summary 2025: Finding opportunity amid uncertainty

In this article, we summarize some of the key findings from our 2025 outlooks, from divergence-driven opportunities to the impacts of AI and beyond.

event January 2025

3 min

Article

2026-06-06

Fiscal policy Interest rates Tactical allocation Content CoE Program Global Program iStrat Multi-asset Outlook Article

Trump 2.0: Time to curb your enthusiasm?

How does an allocator navigate markets when so much about the policy landscape is unknown? Our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offers their views on the new political realities in the US and their global implications, including for equities, bonds, and commodities.

Multiple authors

event December 2024

12 min

Article

2025-12-31

Fiscal policy Inflation Outlook Content CoE Program Global Program Fixed income Americas Article

Listening to voters’ economic concerns should mean less fiscal spending

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana explains the likely economic and market impacts of Trump administration policies, including potential winners and losers from drastic fiscal spending cuts.

By

event November 2024

6 min

Article

2025-11-30

Elections Fiscal policy Geopolitics Inflation Interest rates Macro WELLSaid Podcast Podcast

Trump 2.0: US election market impacts

In the wake of the US election, macro strategists Juhi Dhawan and Michael Medeiros join host Thomas Mucha to discuss the market, policy, and geopolitical implications of Trump 2.0.

By

event November 2024

21 min

Podcast

2025-11-30

Outlook Inflation Monetary policy USA Fixed income Fiscal policy Article

The revenge of the monetarists

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana makes the case for a monetarist explanation for moderating inflation.

By

event June 2024

5 min

Article

2025-06-30

Interest rates Monetary policy Outlook Economic cycle Fiscal policy Macro USA Japan Europe France Germany Italy United Kingdom Fixed income Macro hedge funds Credit Government bonds Investment grade Article

Governments have been slow to reduce their fiscal deficits — it could cost them

Our expert explores the investment implications of continued excessive deficit spending by G7 countries.

By

event June 2024

4 min

Article

2025-06-30

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Fiscal policy USA Credit Article Yielding insights

The Fed’s lessons learned from its COVID response

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana breaks down the central bank's policy decisions during the pandemic and explains how they continue to affect financial markets.

By

event April 2024

6 min

Article

2025-04-30

Elections Geopolitics Fiscal policy Americas Article

Biden 2.0: National security and investment themes

The geopolitical and investment implications of a potential second Biden term.

By

Thomas Mucha

event April 2024

5 min

Article

2025-04-30

Fiscal policy Volatility Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Interest rates Americas Fixed income Credit Government bonds High yield Investment grade Quick Take

FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility

The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference.

By

Caroline Casavant

event March 2024

Quick Take

2025-03-31

Elections Fiscal policy Geopolitics USA Equity Fixed income Article

The Trump/Biden rematch: Market implications of unprecedented policy divergence

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan discusses six key areas of policy debate in this year's US election that she expects will matter most to markets, from the tax and spending plans to trade and geopolitics.

By

event March 2024

Article

2025-03-31

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Fiscal policy USA Credit Article Yielding insights

Is the US economy really that different since COVID?

US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019.

By

event March 2024

Article

2025-03-31

Multi-Sector Credit Fixed income Macro Global Credit Plus Credit Total return Fiscal policy Government bonds Investment grade Fixed income program Americas Article

Too much focus on Fed, not enough on fiscal

Current US fiscal and monetary policy stances argue for risk taking in fixed income.

By

Connor Fitzgerald, CFA

event February 2024

Article

2025-02-07

Germany Macro and market Fixed income Macro Fiscal policy Article

Why structural change in Germany may impact investors globally

Macro Strategists John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan discuss why they believe the structural changes currently underway in Germany will impact investors globally.

By

event January 2024

Article

2025-01-31

Fiscal policy Government bonds Asset allocation Market commentary USA Fixed income Credit EM debt Opportunistic Fixed Income Quick Take

The “cleanest dirty shirt” now has too many stains

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager posits that US fiscal profligacy will change the game for asset allocators.

By

event September 2023

Quick Take

2024-09-28

Fiscal policy Interest rates Monetary policy USA Quick Take

After the US downgrade: Thoughts on public debt, bond yields, and Fed policy

In the wake of the US debt downgrade by Fitch, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains what worries her most about the nation's debt situation and considers the impact on the term premium and the Fed’s plans.

By

event August 2023

Quick Take

2024-08-22

Income Credit Interest rates iStrat Investment grade Fixed income Americas Inflation Fiscal policy Monetary policy Fixed income program Quick Take

Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds

Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.

By

Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson

Patrick Wattiau

event August 2023

Quick Take

2024-08-17

Government bonds Inflation Volatility Fiscal policy USA Fixed income Credit High yield Discover Quick Take Fixed income program

US loses its AAA rating (again)

US Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros analyzes Fitch's recent downgrade of US credit quality and explores the bigger issues at play.

By

event August 2023

Quick Take

2024-08-02

Interest rates Inflation Monetary policy Government bonds Fixed income USA Fiscal policy COVID Quick Take

Chair Powell maintains optionality

Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant shares what she thinks matters most for investors in light of the latest interest-rate hike from the Fed.

By

Caroline Casavant

event July 2023

Quick Take

2024-07-27

Inflation Fiscal policy Automation Article USA

The great American labor shortage: Causes, consequences, and solutions

Shifting demographics suggest that US labor markets will remain tight in years to come, with major implications for income inequality, investment spending, and government policy.

By

event July 2023

Article

2024-07-31

Outlook EM debt Interest rates Fixed income program Fiscal policy Monetary policy Inflation Emerging markets Fixed income Quick Take

A quiet bull market in EM local debt?

Brian Garvey illustrates the recent strength of emerging markets local debt following an extended period of underperformance.

By

Brian Garvey

event June 2023

Quick Take

2024-06-30

Outlook Inflation Interest rates Fixed income Americas Monetary policy Fiscal policy Economic cycle Article

The “money illusion” economy: Misplaced faith in markets?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana shares a skeptical view of US Federal Reserve policy, his assessment of the current market backdrop, and his view of what the future could hold.

By

event June 2023

Article

2024-06-30

Volatility Fiscal policy Currency USA Economic cycle Quick Take

US debt ceiling back in focus: The context matters

US Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros shares his latest thoughts on the US debt-ceiling standoff, including its potential outcomes and implications.

By

event May 2023

Quick Take

2024-05-15

Fiscal policy Economic cycle Volatility USA Quick Take

US debt-ceiling risk: Justifiable jitters?

With markets on high alert around the US debt-ceiling standoff, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan lays out some possible paths forward and weighs the economic risks.

By

event March 2023

Quick Take

2024-02-29

Fiscal policy Geopolitics Macro and market Multi-asset USA Volatility Quick Take Currency

Debt and dysfunction in Washington: The US hits the ceiling (again)

Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson talks to Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros about the US debt-ceiling showdown and considers its potential investment implications.

By

Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson

event February 2023

Quick Take

2024-02-29

Inflation Volatility Economic cycle Fiscal policy Monetary policy Quick Take

Peak inflation, back to goldilocks? Not so fast

Portfolio Manager Nicholas Petrucelli explains why the market could be underestimating just how complex and volatile the global economic cycle is and details the implications for inflation.

By

Nick Petrucelli

event February 2023

Quick Take

2024-02-29

China Economic cycle Macro and market Brand Outlook No Optimizely COVID Geopolitics Inflation Fiscal policy Real estate Article

China’s economy: Poised to exceed expectations in 2023

With the bar set so low for China's economy, Macro Strategist Santiago Millan thinks it won't take much for an upside surprise in 2023.

By

Santiago Millán, CFA

event December 2022

Article

2023-12-31

Macro and market Geopolitics USA Fiscal policy Quick Take

A new blueprint for US trade: Building a more resilient, sustainable, and competitive economy

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains how the Biden administration is reshaping US trade policy to reflect today's global realities, including supply-chain challenges, decarbonization, and geopolitical turmoil.

By

event December 2022

Quick Take

2023-12-31

Europe Inflation Economic cycle Outlook No Optimizely Monetary policy Interest rates Fiscal policy Multi-asset Article

Why Europe could surprise in 2023

Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.

By

event December 2022

Article

2023-12-31

Inflation Economic cycle Macro and market Outlook No Optimizely Fiscal policy Interest rates Monetary policy Geopolitics USA Consumer Article

2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy

In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.

By

event November 2022

Article

2023-12-31

Macro and market India Equity Fiscal policy Discover Quick Take

By design and by default: Industry consolidation gathers steam across India

Equity Portfolio Manager Murali Srikantaiai sees increased industry consolidation in India as a largely positive trend from which some equity investors can (and should) seek to benefit.

By

Murali Srikantaiah

event November 2022

Quick Take

2023-11-30

Volatility Fiscal policy Monetary policy Currency Interest rates Economic cycle United Kingdom Article

UK in the eye of the storm: which countries might be next?

Macro Strategist John Butler provides his latest take on what's happening in the UK and its broader global implications.

By

event September 2022

Article

2022-12-31

Inflation Climate Energy Fiscal policy USA Sustainable investing Climate technology Article

The Inflation Reduction Act: A big deal for the US economy

US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the economic implications of the climate- and energy-related spending provisions in the IRA, including the potential for higher productivity.

By

event September 2022

Article

2023-09-30

Inflation Europe Monetary policy Volatility Fiscal policy EMEA Article

What next for the euro area after the ECB’s historic hike?

Eoin O'Callaghan and Marco Giordano explore the ECB’s likely next steps and the potential future path of inflation and growth in the euro area.

By

Marco Giordano

event July 2022

Article

2023-07-05

Macro and market Monetary policy Fiscal policy Commodities Quick Take

Three overlooked opportunities in today’s markets

Portfolio Manager Brian Garvey highlights three large macro dislocations in today's environment that he believes the capital markets have yet to price in.

By

Brian Garvey

event June 2022

Quick Take

2023-06-30

Fiscal policy India Emerging markets Equity E-commerce Consumer discretionary Geopolitics Quick Take

Six reasons India may be on the cusp of a major upcycle

Numerous positive structural and cyclical factors are pointing towards a major economic upcycle in India over the next five to six years, in our view, creating a range of potential investment opportunities. We believe India’s market is supported by an evolving investment universe, powerful demographic trends, increasing urbanisation and rising wealth, export growth, geopolitical tailwinds and a supportive policy regime. These factors are coalescing at a time when the corporate deleveraging cycle of the last few years is coming to an end and a new upcycle in profitability could be beginning.

By

Philip Brooks, CFA

event May 2022

Quick Take

2022-12-30

insight-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-105675781-1500x410

Geopolitics Russia Europe Fiscal policy Monetary policy Energy Article

How will Russia’s invasion of Ukraine transform the euro area? Four potential paths

As the tragedy in Ukraine unfolds, Macro Strategist John Butler assesses possible implications of the conflict for Europe and the euro area. He outlines four potential paths.

By