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Chart in Focus: Can quality hedge against inflation?

Multiple authors
February 2025
3 min read
2026-02-28
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inflation hedge gold coins

The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.

Inflation fears for 2025 are back, especially after Trump's election. Key policies and robust growth could lead to unexpected inflation, and in turn, different implications on investment returns. As such, understanding inflation and interest rates is crucial.

Since 2001, during periods of inflation over 3%, higher-quality stocks and bonds outperformed, suggesting that moving up in quality during such periods may benefit portfolios.

Quality stocks (high return on equity, low leverage, stable earnings) are more resilient. Higher inflation increases credit risk in fixed income, with default risk rising down the quality spectrum.

Figure 1
chart-in-focus-can-quality-fig1

Investment implications

  • Historically, quality stocks outperform in both high and low inflation environments, offering upside if inflation persists and limited downside if it abates.
  • Quality stocks seek to be defensive in bear markets, but "Magnificent 7" companies still have heavy weights in quality indices, exposing them to concentration risk should mega caps downturn.
  • Fixed income outcomes depend on inflation. Rate cuts help lower-quality issuers as inflation eases but are more vulnerable should inflation increase.

What we are watching

  • US inflation drivers: Monitoring economic data and Trump administration policies that could trigger unexpected inflation.
  • Central bank rate paths: The US Federal Reserve may not normalize rates quickly if Trump enacts his policies. Sustained rates or surprise hikes could increase borrowing costs and defaults.
  • Defensive/quality sector developments: AI investment and mega caps, deregulation and health care, environmental policy and utilities.

Experts

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