Trump 2.0: US election market impacts
In the wake of the US election, macro strategists Juhi Dhawan and Michael Medeiros join host Thomas Mucha to discuss the market, policy, and geopolitical implications of Trump 2.0.
What is “the economic cycle,” anyway?
See why the relationship between asset prices and the economic cycle is more complex than you might think, why a US recession is unlikely, and what a more dovish Fed could mean for the US and global markets.
Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — August issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the August issue of "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.
Time to capitalise on the evolving role of bonds?
We outline why we think the new economic era is elevating the role of bonds as a source of attractive and stable income, downside protection and portfolio diversification.
Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — July issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read July's issue of Bonds in Brief for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.
Still waiting…Fed wants more data before cutting policy rates
Our expert dives into Fed policy following the July FMOC meeting.
Are US election probabilities now a critical driver of bond yields?
Our expert argues that the US election remains a critical catalyst for the bond market given the contrast between both parties as it relates to supply side policies such as trade and immigration, and to policy differences around taxation and regulation.
Breaking concentration: big picture thinking with small-cap equities
How to overcome the risks associated with today's concentrated market? Investment Director John Mullins explores why small-cap equities could be part of the answer.
Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — June issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read June's issue of Bonds in Brief for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.
All-time highs and CPIs: What comes next?
Global fundamentals have kept markets content so far this year, but will politics sour the mood? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their views on the second half of 2024, including on equities, bonds, and commodities.
June FOMC meeting: May disinflation is welcome, but is not enough for a rate cut
Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant discusses what June's FOMC meeting tells us about the US Federal Reserve’s latest thinking on interest-rate cuts.
Bonds in Brief: making sense of the macro — May issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the May issue of Bonds in Brief for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.
Has the European credit cycle been extended?
2024 has kept fixed income investors busy. Yet, despite lingering inflation and rate volatility, European credit markets have remained strong. Are we looking at an extended credit cycle? And if so, what does this mean for investors?
The revenge of the monetarists
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana makes the case for a monetarist explanation for moderating inflation.
Global Economic Outlook
Our macro strategists continue to expect that the interlinkages between countries, central bank policies, and market pricing will change, creating potentially attractive opportunities for active portfolio management and security selection.
Thriving or surviving? The state of the US consumer and the economic implications
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan examines the condition of the all-important consumer, including the outlook for spending, the effects of inflation and prevailing interest rates, and the consequences for the overall economy.
Battle for the supply side of the economy: US election implications
Starkly different policy agendas from Biden and Trump are examined in terms of how they may affect the supply side of the US economy.
New era demands a nimble approach to credit
Our expert explains why deep research and an active approach are effective ways for fixed income investors to uncover credit opportunities in today's market.
Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro — April issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the April issue of "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.
Powell back to waiting on inflation data
Our expert's key takeaways from the May FOMC meeting.
The Fed’s lessons learned from its COVID response
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana breaks down the central bank's policy decisions during the pandemic and explains how they continue to affect financial markets.
The immigration surge: Political challenge, economic blessing?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the impact of rising immigration, a top issue in this year's US elections, on growth, interest rates, and the labor market.
FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility
The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference.
Is the US economy really that different since COVID?
US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019.
How to nurture a growth mindset in a higher-yielding landscape
In a higher-yield world, can fixed income deliver meaningful growth? John Mullins, Supriya Menon and Alex King explore how high-yield bonds may offer a powerful opportunity for growth - as well as a cushion against uncertainty.
Income: the hard worker in your portfolio deserves more credit
Income from cash is good but income from bonds is better. In a less certain macro environment, Alex King, Supriya Menon and John Mullins think the case for income only gets stronger. How can investors make the most of opportunities?
Adopt a new vantage point for diversifying your portfolio
Supriya Menon, Alex King and John Mullins explore why a diversified mixed of fixed income exposure is a key component of a nuanced approach to diversification in today's cyclical macro regime.
Facing the inflation dilemma head on
Inflation has already fallen much quicker than most expected. However, there are convincing reasons why inflation might be higher and more volatile going forward. What are the implications for asset allocation?
Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - December issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.
Fork in the road: Slowdown or reacceleration ahead?
Markets seem to expect a much smoother ride in 2024, but are they too optimistic? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
Credit: Better opportunities to add risk on the horizon
Our experts review current macro dynamics impacting the bond market and discuss where they see opportunities and risks across credit sectors.
Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - November issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.
Look past the cycle: The surprising total return potential of natural resources and commodities
Portfolio manager Nick Petrucelli explains the cyclical, structural, and macro tailwinds behind this opportunity.
Should investors prepare for a rate hike in Japan?
Investment Directors Marco Giordano and Masahiko Loo discuss why a rate rise in Japan may occur sooner than markets expect.
The great central bank balancing act
Marco Giordano examines the difficult balancing act that central banks around the world are seeking to perform and its likely implications for investors.
Early 2024 resolutions: Enjoy the yield but be smart with your surplus
What should insurers expect from markets as we approach the end of the year? Tim Antonelli, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy – Insurance and Portfolio Manager, offers his views and identifies areas that may be worth a closer look.
Is bad news for the economy actually good news for markets?
While it has taken longer than expected, higher interest rates are starting to take their toll on the global economy and the "bad news is good news" market narrative could be changing. Members of our Investment Strategy team offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
What if US wealth inequality reverses?
Our experts examine the role of wealth inequality in the US economy and the potential investment implications of a reversal in that dynamic.
Long/short investing in European equities' growing dispersion
We explore how growing dispersion in European equity markets is driving opportunities for long/short investors, fueled by structurally higher inflation, changing market leadership, and a renewed focus on valuation.
US regional banking sector update
We explore how banking regulation and legislation could impact US regional banks, including highlighting the potential for M&A activity and for dispersion to drive long/short opportunities.
Economic and market forecast in six charts
This visual summary of Wellington Management’s 2023 Outlook captures insights on economic and market forces shaping investment results from specialists from across our investment platform.
Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds
Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.
Commercial property values shrinking? No problem for big cities
We analyze the impact of declining office property values and outline the reasons why they believe large cities should be able to weather the storm of shrinking commercial property value.
What AI could mean for fixed income
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the potential effects of artificial intelligence on the fixed income market.
US loses its AAA rating (again)
US Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros analyzes Fitch's recent downgrade of US credit quality and explores the bigger issues at play.
Chair Powell maintains optionality
Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant shares what she thinks matters most for investors in light of the latest interest-rate hike from the Fed.
The great American labor shortage: Causes, consequences, and solutions
Shifting demographics suggest that US labor markets will remain tight in years to come, with major implications for income inequality, investment spending, and government policy.
A test for the global economy
What are the similarities and differences between the US regional banking crisis and 2008's global financial crisis? How likely is a recession? Should investors be focusing on value or growth? In this podcast, Macro Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson shares her interpretation of where the economy is headed, outlining where the risks and opportunities may lie for investors in the next 12 months.
State of the credit markets: Does cash rule everything around us?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana outlines the state of the credit market today, compares historical periods of quantitative easing, and warns credit investors of cash scarcity in the near future.
Fed skips along the path to a pause
Jeremy Forster analyzes the Federal Reserve's decision to pause its interest-rate hiking cycle, explains why he believes it could be an extended pause, and shares the potential implications for fixed income markets.
Is the structural case for inflation still intact?
Even if inflation cools in the coming months, members of our Investment Strategy team expect it to be "stickier" over the long term. Find out how that might impact asset allocation decisions.
Have you looked at Brazilian equities lately?
Equity Research Analyst David Reid believes now is an opportune time for EM equity investors to consider implementing or augmenting portfolio allocations to Brazilian stocks.
Value investing: Alive and well in today’s market
Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson expects the drivers of the next economic cycle to favor value stocks over their growth counterparts.
Did the Fed just make a policy error?
Did the Fed just make a policy error? All things considered, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster thinks the answer is yes. Learn why and what the implications could be.
Three macro assumptions that could be just plain wrong
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his non-consensus take on three entrenched, but potentially flawed, beliefs in today's market environment.
Macro risks to watch in this rapidly oscillating global cycle
Macro Strategist John Butler explores the two key questions he believes macro investors should focus on in the current volatile environment.
Financial stability versus inflation: The Fed’s balancing act has gotten much trickier
The Fed’s policy calculus has clearly changed somewhat over the past few weeks but the central bank may not be done hiking rates just yet, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster.
Wellington investor survey: The bears ponder whether inflation will be too hot, too cold or just right
Conducted prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, our latest quarterly survey of Wellington investors shows a majority of respondents being more bearish than the consensus view.
Tight money: Banks feeling the squeeze of higher rates
In this curated collection, some of our experts share their latest perspectives on the ongoing turmoil in the US banking sector and its potential implications.
Understanding the US banking sector shake-up
Investment Communications Managers Jitu Naidu and Adam Norman detail recent US bank failures and analyze the implications. (Published 15 March 2023)
On to the next crisis: Glimpsing a post-SVB world
Amid the turmoil in the US banking sector, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests investors consider pivoting to a “risk-management mode” that favors higher-quality assets. (Published 14 March 2023)
Decoding the effects of deglobalization
Nicholas Petrucelli outlines the economic, political, and geopolitical underpinnings of deglobalization. He also demonstrates the impact this trend has today and analyzes the investment implications.
What does the new macro regime mean for investors?
In this Q&A with two senior market practitioners we explore what the new macro regime means for investors and what to expect next.
India: Structural tailwinds for 2023 and beyond
Following his recent trip to India, Macro Strategist Tushar Poddar shares why he's very positive on the country's medium- to longer-term structural outlook.
Peak inflation, back to goldilocks? Not so fast
Portfolio Manager Nicholas Petrucelli explains why the market could be underestimating just how complex and volatile the global economic cycle is and details the implications for inflation.
February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone
The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.
Why investing in themes for EM equities may reap rewards
Portfolio Manager Dáire Dunne outlines why he is increasingly optimistic about the potential opportunities within select EM equity themes this year.
Why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan
Macro Strategist John Butler explores why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan and what is likely to happen next.
Multi-Asset Outlook — A rocky road to recovery in 2023
Markets may be jumping the gun when it comes to expectations for a policy pivot and the likely risk-asset rewards. Members of our Investment Strategy team still see bumps in the economic road, though their outlook has brightened a bit when it comes to China and other emerging markets.
US recession risk: No longer if, but when and how bad
Portfolio Managers Brij Khurana, Brian Garvey, and Nick Petrucelli believe many observers are underestimating the severity of a potential US recession this year.
Navigating the new global economy in 2023
This executive summary distills the points of view of several of our 2023 Outlook authors. Discover the risks and opportunities they see as we enter a new economic and market regime.
Picture this: Our 2023 economic forecast in five charts
We explain the shifts the market is undergoing, analyze the implications for different asset classes, and identify potential risks and opportunities in a series of visuals.
The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.
Perspectives on today’s alternative investment environment
Take a quick tour of the alternative investment environment with investors from across our macro research and hedge fund teams, as they explore the geopolitical landscape, macro volatility, and key trends like climate-change adaptation and digital tokenization.
China’s economy: Poised to exceed expectations in 2023
With the bar set so low for China's economy, Macro Strategist Santiago Millan thinks it won't take much for an upside surprise in 2023.
Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.
Why Europe could surprise in 2023
Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.
Multi-Asset Outlook — Higher rates for longer: What does it mean for markets?
For central banks, the inflation fight is on, but the policy and market responses will vary in the coming months. Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Supriya Menon discuss the implications for equities, bonds, and commodities.
Geopolitical outlook: Shifting policies, structural advantages?
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha and Macro Strategist Santiago Millán look at five geopolitical themes they believe investors should watch in 2023.
2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy
In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.
Commodities outlook: Near-term uncertainties; long-term opportunities
Members of our Commodities Team describe the micro and macro, cyclical and structural tensions that we expect to drive the asset class in 2023.
Pivot points: Five portfolio positioning ideas for the new market regime
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger looks at five ways in which the world may be very different in the coming decade and how they could influence the next wave of investment winners.
Wellington investor survey: inflationary Europe seen as top “problem child” of 2023
In the latest Wellington investor survey, inflationary Europe was seen as the top "problem child" of 2023.
Emerging markets debt outlook: A glass half full or half empty?
Against a still-challenging global backdrop for emerging markets, Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth highlights opportunities created by extreme credit spread dispersion across individual countries.
Three tailwinds that could power CLO equity in 2023 and beyond
Three members of our fixed income team argue that the headwinds currently facing CLO equity should give way to improved returns in 2023 and beyond.
November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?
Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.
Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.
A new economic era: Why inflation, volatility, and cycles are back
Macro Strategist John Butler argues that a seismic global shift is underway that will disrupt the macro dynamics of the past two decades, challenging long-held investment assumptions.
Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.
Macro renaissance: The opportunity ahead for investors
As the global economy and financial markets transition to a new, potentially more volatile era, macro investment strategies may be well positioned to take advantage of market dislocations and greater asset price differentiation.
After the UK sell-off: what’s next for global markets and investors?
Co-Head of Investment Strategy Natasha Brook-Walters and Head of Macro Strategy John Butler discuss the implications of the recent sell-off in UK markets for global markets and investors.
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.
URL References
Related Insights
Commodities: Top ideas and evolving opportunities
To help clients plan for the coming year, our commodities experts share their top near-term, medium-term, and long-term investment ideas.
Multiple authors