Inflation

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8 min

Article

2025-11-30

Outlook Economic cycle Geopolitical Inflation Macro Article No Optimizely

Global Economic Outlook

Our macro strategists continue to expect that the interlinkages between countries, central bank policies, and market pricing will change, creating potentially attractive opportunities for active portfolio management and security selection.

Multiple authors

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Article

2025-11-30

Fiscal policy Inflation Outlook Content CoE Program Global Program Fixed income Americas Article

Listening to voters’ economic concerns should mean less fiscal spending

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana explains the likely economic and market impacts of Trump administration policies, including potential winners and losers from drastic fiscal spending cuts.

By

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6 min

Article

2025-11-30

Equity Inflation Monetary policy Wealth Program EMEA Article

What do declining European earnings mean for ECB policy?

European companies have been unexpectedly resilient over the last couple of years. However, the outlook for European earnings could be more challenging than headline numbers suggest. What could this mean for investors?

By

Nicolas Wylenzek

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6 min

Article

2025-11-30

Elections Fiscal policy Geopolitical Inflation Interest rates Macro WELLSaid Podcast Podcast

Trump 2.0: US election market impacts

In the wake of the US election, macro strategists Juhi Dhawan and Michael Medeiros join host Thomas Mucha to discuss the market, policy, and geopolitical implications of Trump 2.0.

By

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21 min

Podcast

2025-11-30

Equity Economic cycle Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program Americas Inflation Monetary policy Yielding insights Article

What is “the economic cycle,” anyway?

See why the relationship between asset prices and the economic cycle is more complex than you might think, why a US recession is unlikely, and what a more dovish Fed could mean for the US and global markets.

By

event

5 min

Article

2025-10-31

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program Inflation Macro Monetary policy Geopolitical Article

Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — August issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the August issue of "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.

By

event

4 min

Article

2025-09-30

Active management Fixed income Macro and market Wealth Program Americas Brazil Canada Mexico USA APAC Asia Australia China India Japan EMEA Africa Europe France Germany Italy Russia United Kingdom Emerging markets Inflation Interest rates Macro Monetary policy Asset allocation Article

Time to capitalise on the evolving role of bonds?

We outline why we think the new economic era is elevating the role of bonds as a source of attractive and stable income, downside protection and portfolio diversification.

By

event

2 min

Article

2025-09-30

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program Geopolitical Inflation Macro Monetary policy Article

Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — July issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read July's issue of Bonds in Brief for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.

By

event

5 min

Article

2025-08-10

Fixed income Economic cycle Monetary policy Content CoE Program Global Program Credit USA Inflation Interest rates Yielding insights Article

Still waiting…Fed wants more data before cutting policy rates

Our expert dives into Fed policy following the July FMOC meeting.

By

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3 min

Article

2024-10-31

Elections Inflation Interest rates Institutional Program Credit Government bonds Fixed income Americas Wellington on Washington and the World Article

Are US election probabilities now a critical driver of bond yields?

Our expert argues that the US election remains a critical catalyst for the bond market given the contrast between both parties as it relates to supply side policies such as trade and immigration, and to policy differences around taxation and regulation.

By

event

3 min

Article

2024-11-30

Small cap Diversification Multi-asset Tactical allocation Wealth Program Inflation Multi-Asset solutions Article

Breaking concentration: big picture thinking with small-cap equities

How to overcome the risks associated with today's concentrated market? Investment Director John Mullins explores why small-cap equities could be part of the answer.

By

John Mullins

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6 min

Article

2025-07-31

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program Geopolitical Inflation Macro Monetary policy Article

Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — June issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read June's issue of Bonds in Brief for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.

By

event

5 min

Article

2025-07-31

Interest rates Outlook Asset allocation Content CoE Program Global Program Inflation Tactical allocation Article

All-time highs and CPIs: What comes next?

Global fundamentals have kept markets content so far this year, but will politics sour the mood? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their views on the second half of 2024, including on equities, bonds, and commodities.

Multiple authors

event

14 min

Article

2025-01-08

Fixed income Macro and market Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Credit Government bonds Investment grade Article

June FOMC meeting: May disinflation is welcome, but is not enough for a rate cut

Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant discusses what June's FOMC meeting tells us about the US Federal Reserve’s latest thinking on interest-rate cuts.

By

event

3 min

Article

2025-06-30

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Geopolitical Inflation Macro Monetary policy Article

Bonds in Brief: making sense of the macro — May issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the May issue of Bonds in Brief for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.

By

event

4 min

Article

2025-06-30

Income Europe Economic cycle Credit Fixed income Inflation Article

Has the European credit cycle been extended?

2024 has kept fixed income investors busy. Yet, despite lingering inflation and rate volatility, European credit markets have remained strong. Are we looking at an extended credit cycle? And if so, what does this mean for investors?

By

Derek Hynes

Will Prentis

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8 min

Article

2025-06-30

Outlook Inflation Monetary policy USA Fixed income Fiscal policy Article

The revenge of the monetarists

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana makes the case for a monetarist explanation for moderating inflation.

By

event

5 min

Article

2025-06-30

Elections Inflation Outlook Interest rates Article Equity Fixed income Multi-asset

Thriving or surviving? The state of the US consumer and the economic implications

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan examines the condition of the all-important consumer, including the outlook for spending, the effects of inflation and prevailing interest rates, and the consequences for the overall economy.

By

event

8 min

Article

2025-06-30

Inflation Elections Outlook Fixed income program Macro Americas Fixed income Article

Battle for the supply side of the economy: US election implications

Starkly different policy agendas from Biden and Trump are examined in terms of how they may affect the supply side of the US economy.

By

event

5 min

Article

2025-03-31

Active management Interest rates Credit Inflation Income Growth Strategic allocation Tactical allocation Fixed income Article

New era demands a nimble approach to credit

Our expert explains why deep research and an active approach are effective ways for fixed income investors to uncover credit opportunities in today's market.

By

Campe Goodman, CFA

event

5 min

Article

2025-05-31

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Geopolitical Inflation Macro Monetary policy Credit EM debt Government bonds High yield Investment grade Article

Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro — April issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the April issue of "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.

By

event

4 min

Article

2025-05-31

Inflation Economic cycle Monetary policy Americas Interest rates Fixed income Article

Powell back to waiting on inflation data

Our expert's key takeaways from the May FOMC meeting.

By

event

2 min

Article

2025-05-31

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Fiscal policy USA Credit Article

The Fed’s lessons learned from its COVID response

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana breaks down the central bank's policy decisions during the pandemic and explains how they continue to affect financial markets.

By

event

6 min

Article

2025-04-30

Elections Interest rates Inflation Americas Article

The immigration surge: Political challenge, economic blessing?

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the impact of rising immigration, a top issue in this year's US elections, on growth, interest rates, and the labor market.

By

event

4 min

Article

2025-04-30

Fiscal policy Volatility Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Interest rates Americas Fixed income Credit Government bonds High yield Investment grade Quick Take

FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility

The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference.

By

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Quick Take

2025-03-31

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Fiscal policy USA Credit Article

Is the US economy really that different since COVID?

US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019.

By

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Article

2025-03-31

Growth Fixed income High yield Equity Macro Strategic allocation Value vs growth Bank liquidity Volatility Inflation Tactical allocation iStrat program Article

How to nurture a growth mindset in a higher-yielding landscape

In a higher-yield world, can fixed income deliver meaningful growth? John Mullins, Supriya Menon and Alex King explore how high-yield bonds may offer a powerful opportunity for growth - as well as a cushion against uncertainty.

Multiple authors

event

12 min

Article

2025-03-31

Income Fixed income Asset allocation iStrat program Inflation Value vs growth Economic cycle Monetary policy Tactical allocation Equity Multi-asset Article

Income: the hard worker in your portfolio deserves more credit

Income from cash is good but income from bonds is better. In a less certain macro environment, Alex King, Supriya Menon and John Mullins think the case for income only gets stronger. How can investors make the most of opportunities?

Multiple authors

event

5 min

Article

2025-03-31

Diversification Fixed income Asset allocation Inflation Tactical allocation iStrat program Article

Adopt a new vantage point for diversifying your portfolio

Supriya Menon, Alex King and John Mullins explore why a diversified mixed of fixed income exposure is a key component of a nuanced approach to diversification in today's cyclical macro regime.

Multiple authors

event

7 min

Article

2025-01-31

Income Asset allocation Active management iStrat Multi-asset Inflation Article

Facing the inflation dilemma head on

Inflation has already fallen much quicker than most expected. However, there are convincing reasons why inflation might be higher and more volatile going forward. What are the implications for asset allocation?

By

John Mullins

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Article

2025-02-23

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Fixed income program Inflation Monetary policy Credit Article

Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - December issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.

By

event

Article

2024-12-31

Asset allocation Monetary policy Economic cycle iStrat program Tactical allocation Inflation Multi-asset Equity Fixed income Commodities Multi-Asset qualifier Article

Fork in the road: Slowdown or reacceleration ahead?

Markets seem to expect a much smoother ride in 2024, but are they too optimistic? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.

Multiple authors

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Article

2026-01-31

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Inflation Credit Monetary policy Fixed income program Article

Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - November issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.

By

event

Article

2024-12-31

Outlook Income Economic cycle Credit Multi-Sector Credit Opportunistic Fixed Income Global Credit Plus Global High Yield Fixed income Inflation Asset allocation Fixed income program Article

Credit: Better opportunities to add risk on the horizon

Our experts review current macro dynamics impacting the bond market and discuss where they see opportunities and risks across credit sectors.

By

Campe Goodman, CFA

Rob Burn, CFA

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Article

2024-12-31

Inflation Total return Economic cycle Commodities Materials Energy Outlook Article

Look past the cycle: The surprising total return potential of natural resources and commodities

Portfolio manager Nick Petrucelli explains the cyclical, structural, and macro tailwinds behind this opportunity.

By

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Article

2024-12-31

Japan Macro and market Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Fixed income program Quick Take

Should investors prepare for a rate hike in Japan?

Investment Directors Marco Giordano and Masahiko Loo discuss why a rate rise in Japan may occur sooner than markets expect.

By

Masahiko Loo

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Quick Take

2024-12-31

Outlook Commodities Market commentary Inflation Article

Commodities: Top ideas and evolving opportunities

To help clients plan for the coming year, our commodities experts share their top near-term, medium-term, and long-term investment ideas.

Multiple authors

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Article

2024-11-30

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Inflation Interest rates United Kingdom Monetary policy Fixed income program Article

The great central bank balancing act

Marco Giordano examines the difficult balancing act that central banks around the world are seeking to perform and its likely implications for investors.

By

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Article

2024-11-30

Asset allocation Interest rates Inflation iStrat Multi-asset Tactical allocation Quarterly Asset Allocation Outlook Article

Is bad news for the economy actually good news for markets?

While it has taken longer than expected, higher interest rates are starting to take their toll on the global economy and the "bad news is good news" market narrative could be changing. Members of our Investment Strategy team offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.

Multiple authors

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Article

2024-03-31

Inflation Geopolitical Investment grade Macro USA Multi-asset Fixed income Article

What if US wealth inequality reverses?

Our experts examine the role of wealth inequality in the US economy and the potential investment implications of a reversal in that dynamic.

By

Connor Fitzgerald, CFA

Trevor Noren

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Article

2024-09-30

Long-short Europe Volatility Alternatives Market disruptions Interest rates Inflation Alternatives investing Article

Long/short investing in European equities' growing dispersion

We explore how growing dispersion in European equity markets is driving opportunities for long/short investors, fueled by structurally higher inflation, changing market leadership, and a renewed focus on valuation.

By

Dirk Enderlein, CFA

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Article

2024-09-30

Bank liquidity Regulatory Hedge funds Global Industry Research Alternatives Financials Americas Interest rates Monetary policy Volatility Inflation Fintech program Alternatives investing Article Fintech

US regional banking sector update

We explore how banking regulation and legislation could impact US regional banks, including highlighting the potential for M&A activity and for dispersion to drive long/short opportunities.

Multiple authors

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Article

2024-08-31

Outlook Private investing Volatility Equity Fixed income Alternatives Inflation

Economic and market forecast in six charts

This visual summary of Wellington Management’s 2023 Outlook captures insights on economic and market forces shaping investment results from specialists from across our investment platform.

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2024-08-31

Inflation Credit COVID Fixed income Real estate Americas Fixed income program Quick Take

Commercial property values shrinking? No problem for big cities

We analyze the impact of declining office property values and outline the reasons why they believe large cities should be able to weather the storm of shrinking commercial property value.

By

Jessica Mayer

Conor McEachern

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Quick Take

2024-08-31

Income Credit Interest rates iStrat Investment grade Fixed income Americas Inflation Fiscal policy Monetary policy Fixed income program Quick Take

Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds

Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.

By

Patrick Wattiau

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Quick Take

2024-08-31

Artificial intelligence (AI) Credit Macro and market Fixed income program Inflation Americas Fixed income Quick Take

What AI could mean for fixed income

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the potential effects of artificial intelligence on the fixed income market.

By

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Quick Take

2024-08-31

Government bonds Inflation Volatility Fiscal policy USA Fixed income Credit High yield Discover Quick Take Fixed income program

US loses its AAA rating (again)

US Macro Strategist Michael Medeiros analyzes Fitch's recent downgrade of US credit quality and explores the bigger issues at play.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-08-31

Interest rates Inflation Monetary policy Government bonds Fixed income USA Fiscal policy COVID Quick Take

Chair Powell maintains optionality

Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant shares what she thinks matters most for investors in light of the latest interest-rate hike from the Fed.

By

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Quick Take

2024-07-31

Portfolio construction Inflation Economic cycle Multi-asset Manager selection Volatility DEI iStrat Video Tactical allocation

A test for the global economy

What are the similarities and differences between the US regional banking crisis and 2008's global financial crisis? How likely is a recession? Should investors be focusing on value or growth? In this podcast, Macro Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson shares her interpretation of where the economy is headed, outlining where the risks and opportunities may lie for investors in the next 12 months.

By

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Video

2024-07-31

USA Inflation Credit Quick Take Interest rates Fixed income Bank liquidity COVID

State of the credit markets: Does cash rule everything around us?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana outlines the state of the credit market today, compares historical periods of quantitative easing, and warns credit investors of cash scarcity in the near future.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-06-30

Interest rates Monetary policy Inflation Fixed income program Americas Fixed income Government bonds Quick Take

Fed skips along the path to a pause

Jeremy Forster analyzes the Federal Reserve's decision to pause its interest-rate hiking cycle, explains why he believes it could be an extended pause, and shares the potential implications for fixed income markets.

By

Elisabeth Perenick, FSA, CFA

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Quick Take

2024-06-30

Outlook Private equity Bank liquidity Volatility Interest rates Inflation Private investments Article

Private credit in a new regime

We explore how a shifting macro backdrop, ongoing banking crisis, and evolving competitive dynamics may create opportunities across private credit markets.

By

Emeka Onukwugha, CFA

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Article

2024-06-30

Outlook EM debt Interest rates Fixed income program Fiscal policy Monetary policy Inflation Emerging markets Fixed income Quick Take

A quiet bull market in EM local debt?

Brian Garvey illustrates the recent strength of emerging markets local debt following an extended period of underperformance.

By

Brian Garvey

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Quick Take

2024-06-30

Outlook High yield Bank liquidity Fixed income Volatility Economic cycle Inflation Interest rates Monetary policy Brand Article

Global high yield: Attractive entry points could soon emerge

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman shares his outlook for high-yield fixed income for the rest of this year and beyond.

By

Konstantin Leidman, CFA

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Article

2024-06-30

Inflation Portfolio construction Multi-asset iStrat Quick Take Strategic allocation Multi-Asset solutions Alternatives

Is the structural case for inflation still intact?

Even if inflation cools in the coming months, members of our Investment Strategy team expect it to be "stickier" over the long term. Find out how that might impact asset allocation decisions.

By

Alex King, CFA

Nick Samouilhan, PhD, CFA, FRM

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Quick Take

2024-05-31

EM equity Brazil Inflation Equity Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Asset allocation Quick Take

Have you looked at Brazilian equities lately?

Equity Research Analyst David Reid believes now is an opportune time for EM equity investors to consider implementing or augmenting portfolio allocations to Brazilian stocks.

By

David Reid, CFA

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Quick Take

2024-05-31

Value vs growth Equity Economic cycle Volatility Inflation Diversification Quick Take

Value investing: Alive and well in today’s market

Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson expects the drivers of the next economic cycle to favor value stocks over their growth counterparts.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-05-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation USA Economic cycle Bank liquidity Quick Take

Did the Fed just make a policy error?

Did the Fed just make a policy error? All things considered, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster thinks the answer is yes. Learn why and what the implications could be.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-05-31

Multi-asset Bank liquidity Inflation Fixed income USA Currency Volatility Interest rates Monetary policy Quick Take

Three macro assumptions that could be just plain wrong

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his non-consensus take on three entrenched, but potentially flawed, beliefs in today's market environment.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-04-30

Multi-asset Climate Inflation Alternatives iStrat Strategic allocation Article Sustainable investing Multi-Asset solutions

Integrating climate change into capital market assumptions: our approach and findings

Members of our Investment Strategy team explain how they are incorporating climate-related inputs, including physical and transition risks, into their capital market assumptions and outline the impact of these changes at the asset-class level.

Multiple authors

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Article

2024-04-30

Volatility Inflation Alternatives Quick Take Macro and market Monetary policy Economic cycle Bank liquidity

Macro risks to watch in this rapidly oscillating global cycle

Macro Strategist John Butler explores the two key questions he believes macro investors should focus on in the current volatile environment.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-03-31

Bank liquidity Monetary policy Inflation Economic cycle Interest rates USA Quick Take

Financial stability versus inflation: The Fed’s balancing act has gotten much trickier

The Fed’s policy calculus has clearly changed somewhat over the past few weeks but the central bank may not be done hiking rates just yet, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-03-31

Inflation Volatility Economic cycle Quick Take

Wellington investor survey: The bears ponder whether inflation will be too hot, too cold or just right

Conducted prior to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, our latest quarterly survey of Wellington investors shows a majority of respondents being more bearish than the consensus view.

By

Ben Cooper, CFA

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Bank liquidity Risk management Monetary policy Volatility Inflation USA Financials Quick Take

Understanding the US banking sector shake-up

Investment Communications Managers Jitu Naidu and Adam Norman detail recent US bank failures and analyze the implications. (Published 15 March 2023)

By

Adam Norman

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Volatility Financials USA Inflation iStrat Risk management Tactical allocation Quick Take Monetary policy Bank liquidity Multi-Asset solutions

On to the next crisis: Glimpsing a post-SVB world

Amid the turmoil in the US banking sector, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests investors consider pivoting to a “risk-management mode” that favors higher-quality assets. (Published 14 March 2023)

By

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Inflation Volatility Geopolitical Commodities Industrials Quick Take

Decoding the effects of deglobalization

Nicholas Petrucelli outlines the economic, political, and geopolitical underpinnings of deglobalization. He also demonstrates the impact this trend has today and analyzes the investment implications.

By

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

new-approach-dimensions-challenging-environment

Macro and market Economic cycle Portfolio construction Alternatives Fixed income Monetary policy Inflation Risk management Alternatives investing Article

What does the new macro regime mean for investors?

In this Q&A with two senior market practitioners we explore what the new macro regime means for investors and what to expect next.

By

Mark Sullivan, CFA, CMT

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Article

2024-03-31

India Economic cycle EM equity Inflation Monetary policy Consumer Equity Quick Take Emerging markets

India: Structural tailwinds for 2023 and beyond

Following his recent trip to India, Macro Strategist Tushar Poddar shares why he's very positive on the country's medium- to longer-term structural outlook.

By

Tushar Poddar, PhD

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Inflation Volatility Economic cycle Fiscal policy Monetary policy Quick Take

Peak inflation, back to goldilocks? Not so fast

Portfolio Manager Nicholas Petrucelli explains why the market could be underestimating just how complex and volatile the global economic cycle is and details the implications for inflation.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-02-29

Thematic exposure Emerging markets Economic cycle Distribution EM equity Equity Inflation Interest rates Net zero Geopolitical Article Unique Perspectives Thematic solutions iStrat

Why investing in themes for EM equities may reap rewards

Portfolio Manager Dáire Dunne outlines why he is increasingly optimistic about the potential opportunities within select EM equity themes this year.

By

Dáire Dunne, CFA

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Article

2024-02-29

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation Fixed income Economic cycle USA Quick Take

February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone

The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.

By

event

Quick Take

2023-09-30

Monetary policy Interest rates Japan Fixed income Economic cycle Inflation Volatility Quick Take Alternatives

Why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan

Macro Strategist John Butler explores why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan and what is likely to happen next.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-01-31

Inflation Monetary policy iStrat Multi-asset Volatility Economic cycle Outlook Article Tactical allocation Multi-Asset solutions

Multi-Asset Outlook — A rocky road to recovery in 2023

Markets may be jumping the gun when it comes to expectations for a policy pivot and the likely risk-asset rewards. Members of our Investment Strategy team still see bumps in the economic road, though their outlook has brightened a bit when it comes to China and other emerging markets.

Multiple authors

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Article

2024-07-31

Economic cycle Inflation Fixed income Quick Take

US recession risk: No longer if, but when and how bad

Portfolio Managers Brij Khurana, Brian Garvey, and Nick Petrucelli believe many observers are underestimating the severity of a potential US recession this year.

Multiple authors

event

Quick Take

2024-01-31

Outlook Macro and market Economic cycle Equity Fixed income Alternatives Inflation Monetary policy Geopolitical Innovation Article Sustainability

Navigating the new global economy in 2023

This executive summary distills the points of view of several of our 2023 Outlook authors. Discover the risks and opportunities they see as we enter a new economic and market regime.

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Article

2023-12-31

Outlook Macro and market Economic cycle Private equity Fixed income Alternatives Inflation Geopolitical Climate

Picture this: Our 2023 economic forecast in five charts

We explain the shifts the market is undergoing, analyze the implications for different asset classes, and identify potential risks and opportunities in a series of visuals.

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2023-12-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation Economic cycle USA Quick Take

The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.

By

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Quick Take

2023-12-31

Inflation Geopolitical Volatility Alternatives investing Economic cycle Climate Alternatives Hedge funds Video

Perspectives on today’s alternative investment environment

Take a quick tour of the alternative investment environment with investors from across our macro research and hedge fund teams, as they explore the geopolitical landscape, macro volatility, and key trends like climate-change adaptation and digital tokenization.

Multiple authors

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Video

2023-11-30

China Economic cycle Macro and market Brand Outlook No Optimizely COVID Geopolitical Inflation Fiscal policy Real estate Article

China’s economy: Poised to exceed expectations in 2023

With the bar set so low for China's economy, Macro Strategist Santiago Millan thinks it won't take much for an upside surprise in 2023.

By

Santiago Millán, CFA

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Article

2023-12-31

Investment grade Fixed income Portfolio strategy Inflation Interest rates Asset allocation Monetary policy Total return Credit Quick Take

Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit

Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.

By

Amar Reganti

Geoff Austein-Miller

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Quick Take

2023-12-31

Europe Inflation Economic cycle Outlook No Optimizely Monetary policy Interest rates Fiscal policy Multi-asset Article

Why Europe could surprise in 2023

Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.

By

Eoin O'Callaghan

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Article

2023-12-31

Inflation Economic cycle Macro and market Outlook No Optimizely Fiscal policy Interest rates Monetary policy Geopolitical USA Consumer Article

2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy

In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.

By

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Article

2023-12-31

geopolitical-outlook-2023-structural-policies

Geopolitical Inflation Elections Outlook No Optimizely Interest rates Article

Geopolitical outlook: Shifting policies, structural advantages?

Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha and Macro Strategist Santiago Millán look at five geopolitical themes they believe investors should watch in 2023.

By

Thomas Mucha

Santiago Millán, CFA

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Article

2023-12-31

Emerging markets EM debt Monetary policy No Optimizely Inflation Interest rates Volatility Fixed income Outlook Article

Emerging markets debt outlook: A glass half full or half empty?

Against a still-challenging global backdrop for emerging markets, Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth highlights opportunities created by extreme credit spread dispersion across individual countries.

By

Gillian Edgeworth

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Article

2023-12-31

Credit Inflation Interest rates Volatility Asset allocation Fixed income Quick Take

Three tailwinds that could power CLO equity in 2023 and beyond

Three members of our fixed income team argue that the headwinds currently facing CLO equity should give way to improved returns in 2023 and beyond.

Multiple authors

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Quick Take

2023-11-30

Monetary policy Economic cycle Inflation Interest rates USA Quick Take

November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?

Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.

By

event

Quick Take

2023-01-31

Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Economic cycle Currency Japan Fixed income Quick Take

Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.

By

Masahiko Loo

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Quick Take

2023-01-31

Inflation Volatility Economic cycle Alternatives investing Outlook No Optimizely Multi-asset Fixed income Equity Alternatives Video

A new economic era: Why inflation, volatility, and cycles are back

Macro Strategist John Butler argues that a seismic global shift is underway that will disrupt the macro dynamics of the past two decades, challenging long-held investment assumptions.

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Christopher Perret, CFA, CAIA

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Video

2023-12-31

Credit Interest rates Monetary policy Inflation Economic cycle Volatility Fixed income USA Quick Take

Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.

Multiple authors

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Quick Take

2023-01-31

Volatility Macro hedge funds Diversification Alternatives investing Inflation Alternatives Whitepaper

Macro renaissance: The opportunity ahead for investors

As the global economy and financial markets transition to a new, potentially more volatile era, macro investment strategies may be well positioned to take advantage of market dislocations and greater asset price differentiation.

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Vivian Bi, CFA

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Whitepaper

2023-10-31

Volatility Inflation United Kingdom Defined contribution (DC) Distribution Public pension (DB) Private pension (DB) Article

After the UK sell-off: what’s next for global markets and investors?

Co-Head of Investment Strategy Natasha Brook-Walters and Head of Macro Strategy John Butler discuss the implications of the recent sell-off in UK markets for global markets and investors.

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Natasha Brook-Walters

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Article

2022-12-30

Interest rates Inflation Credit Asset allocation Fixed income USA Quick Take

Bank loans: Can issuers overcome higher interest expenses?

The short answer, according to Fixed Income Portfolio Managers Jeff Heuer and David Marshak, is that many can. And, they believe bank loans can outperform many other fixed-income sectors over the next 12 months.

Multiple authors

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Quick Take

2023-01-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation Economic cycle USA Multi-asset Quick Take

The Fed’s “lean, leave, then clean” strategy

US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.

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Quick Take

2022-12-31

Inflation Climate Energy Fiscal policy USA Sustainable investing Climate technology Article

The Inflation Reduction Act: A big deal for the US economy

US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the economic implications of the climate- and energy-related spending provisions in the IRA, including the potential for higher productivity.

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Article

2023-09-30

Macro and market Large cap Equity Volatility Inflation USA Quick Take

What does an equity market bottom look like?

Applying a historical analysis to today's market, Multi-Asset Portfolio Manager Nick Petrucelli believes US equities have not yet found a near-term bottom.

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Quick Take

2022-11-30

Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates USA Quick Take No Optimizely Unique Perspectives

No more Mr. Nice Guy? Fed Chair Powell talks tough on inflation

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.

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Quick Take

2023-09-30

Inflation Monetary policy Commodities Asset allocation Multi-asset USA Quick Take

Investment takeaways from the latest inflation data

With 2022's structural inflation story still very much intact, now may be a particularly opportune time for investors to add real-asset and inflation-sensitive exposures to their portfolios.

By

Jake Coyne, CFA, CAIA

Willa Sun

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Quick Take

2022-11-30

Macro and market Economic cycle Inflation Multi-asset Quick Take

Wellington investor survey: Global recession tops investors’ concerns

The latest Wellington investor survey shows that our investment teams are increasingly concerned about the economic cycle, with 45% seeing a global recession over the next 12 months as the most likely outcome.

By

Ben Cooper, CFA

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Quick Take

2022-11-30

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Positioning for a “pricey” recession scenario

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti offer portfolio positioning ideas for the potential recession scenario that may lie ahead.

By

Amar Reganti

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Quick Take

2022-11-30

Inflation Fixed income Active management Fixed income program Monetary policy Europe Credit Quick Take

Why today’s fixed income market is fertile ground for active management

Skilled active management has potential to shine in times of increased dispersion across fixed income sectors and regions. Now may be one of those times.

By

Tobias Ripka, CFA

Will Prentis

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Quick Take

2022-12-31

Emerging markets EM debt Credit Interest rates Currency Inflation Monetary policy Article

Emerging local debt markets: Time to wade in?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Henry sees positive trends across ELD fundamentals, valuations, and technicals that could be tailwinds for these markets going forward.

By

Michael Henry

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Article

2023-08-31

Economic cycle Inflation Monetary policy USA Geopolitical Fixed income Quick Take

Reckoning with recession risk: Why this one may be “pricey”

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu shares his latest take on the looming risk of a global economic recession and related issues.

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Quick Take

2022-11-30

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Fed rate hikes: A tailwind for bonds?

Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson believes higher-quality, longer-duration bonds may prove resilient even if the Fed keeps raising short-term rates into 2023.

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Quick Take

2022-10-31

Inflation Europe Monetary policy Volatility Fiscal policy EMEA Article

What next for the euro area after the ECB’s historic hike?

Eoin O'Callaghan and Marco Giordano explore the ECB’s likely next steps and the potential future path of inflation and growth in the euro area.

By

Eoin O'Callaghan

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Article

2023-07-05

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation USA Fixed income Quick Take

July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth

After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.

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2022-10-31

Inflation Monetary policy Interest rates USA Article

US inflation: Supply chains to the rescue?

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.

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Article

2023-07-31

Outlook Fixed income Equity Factors Multi-manager solutions Large cap Inflation Value vs growth Monetary policy Volatility Manager selection Article

Mid-2022 Asset Class Outlook

We offer perspectives on growth and value equities and explore ideas for shoring up your fixed income flank amid the evolving economic and market environment.

Multiple authors

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Article

2023-07-31

Outlook Inflation Volatility Economic cycle Alternatives Equity Multi-asset Article

Mid-2022 Global Economic Outlook

We believe heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and the new macro environment of deglobalization, higher inflation, greater global cyclicality and volatility will disrupt and drive markets.

Multiple authors

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Article

2023-07-31

Credit Government bonds Portfolio strategy Inflation Quick Take

A transition year for agency MBS?

Following a challenging period for agency MBS, members of our securitized team now see attractive opportunities in the space and believe actively managed strategies may be the best way for many investors to capitalize.

Multiple authors

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Quick Take

2022-07-31

Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Fixed income Quick Take

Timely musings on Fed policy and inflation

With rising inflation and interest rates dominating the financial headlines in recent weeks, I have been fielding a flurry of colleague and client questions about the likely future trajectory of US monetary policy. While I don’t claim to have all the answers, especially with so many “known unknowns” as of this writing, here are my latest thoughts.

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Quick Take

2022-08-30

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US inflation risk, angry bondholders, and silver linings

Here are quick thoughts on some common questions I’ve been asked recently about Fed policy, yields, the US dollar, and financial markets.

By

Raina Dunkelberger, CFA, CAIA

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Quick Take

2022-08-31

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Helping European investors navigate inflation fears

The recent shift to a higher inflation regime, with resulting expectations of tighter monetary policy and rising interest rates, presents a material challenge for European fixed income investors. Against this backdrop, Investment Analyst Will Prentis and Investment Director Tobias Ripka believe investment flexibility is key.

By

Will Prentis

Tobias Ripka, CFA

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2022-07-31

Fixed income Volatility Inflation Monetary policy Information technology Quick Take

Global convertibles: Poised to benefit from five structural tailwinds

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Barry and Investment Specialist Raina Dunkelberger believe global convertible bonds are likely to outperform other fixed income sectors over an investment time horizon of approximately two to three years. Learn why.

By

Michael Barry

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Quick Take

2022-07-31

Insurance Inflation Multi-asset Interest rates Insurance Multi-Asset Outlook Whitepaper

Higher inflation, rising rates: Front and center for insurers

With macro and market complications piling up through the first few months of 2022, Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli provides his investment implications for global insurers.

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Tim Antonelli, CAIA, CFA, FRM, SCR

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Whitepaper

2022-10-15

Credit Interest rates Portfolio strategy Inflation Quick Take

Four potentially powerful tailwinds for the securitized sector

In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.

Multiple authors

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Quick Take

2022-06-30

China Russia Inflation Volatility Geopolitical Multi-asset Article

China is not Russia: Reasons to stay invested

Equity Portfolio Manager Greg Mattiko challenges investors to look at actions rather than conjecture when considering reduced exposure to China.

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Greg Mattiko, CFA

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Article

2023-03-31

Russia Geopolitical Multi-asset Inflation Volatility Article

War in Ukraine: Five observations on recent developments

Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth assesses recent developments in the escalating Russia/Ukraine conflict and highlights five key implications.

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Gillian Edgeworth

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Article

2023-03-31

USA Inflation Article Equity Fixed income Geopolitical COVID Private equity China

Ten more “what if” scenarios for 2022

In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.

By

Adam Berger, CFA

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Article

2023-02-28

Emerging markets Credit EM debt Inflation Quick Take

EM local debt: Forgotten but not forsaken

The emerging markets (EM) local debt sector (as measured by the JP Morgan Government Bond Index – Emerging Markets Global Diversified) just posted its worst calendar-year performance since 2013, returning -8.75% against the headwind of higher EM local interest rates. The underlying culprit? EM inflation surprised to the upside in 2021, forcing a number of EM central banks to raise their policy interest rates in an effort to curb the impact.

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Quick Take

2022-09-30

Europe Inflation Quick Take

Euro area: Challenging long-held assumptions

We believe 2022 will be the year when macroeconomic and political developments challenge two deep-rooted misperceptions about the euro area:

By

Tim Antonelli, CAIA, CFA, FRM, SCR

Eoin O'Callaghan

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Quick Take

2022-04-30

Inflation Quick Take Fixed income

Playing inflation defense with fixed income in 2022

For fixed income investors who are worried about the double threat of higher inflation and rising rates, there are strategies that may help insulate a bond portfolio. Fixed Income Investment Director Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Jonathan Tan offer up some suggestions.

By

Amar Reganti

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Quick Take

2022-02-28

Insurance Multi-asset Inflation COVID Whitepaper Credit ESG

Three transition year themes — inflation, capital, ESG

Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli believes 2022 could be a year of transition for the global insurance industry, with the three big themes of inflation, capital, and ESG likely to play prominent roles in many insurers’ strategic planning and decisions.

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Whitepaper

2022-12-01

Inflation Interest rates USA Quick Take

Fed watch 2022: Year of the hawk?

With inflation on the rise and all eyes seemingly on the Fed these days, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster shares his takeaways from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s December 2021 meeting.

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