What do the US election results mean for investors?

Join our experts, Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, US Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros, Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha, and moderator Trevor Noren, as they delve into the results of the recent US elections. In this webinar replay, they explore the macroeconomic landscape, discuss the multi-asset investment implications, and consider the geopolitical possibilities. Stay ahead in these dynamic times by gaining a deeper understanding of how the election results could impact the markets and your investment strategies.

• After arguably the biggest red-wave election in decades, Donald Trump will enter office with a strong mandate to shift policy and the way the US is governed. This has game-changing implications across all asset classes globally. 
• Much of the positive reaction from markets can be attributed to the fact that we now have much greater certainty than we did 24 hours ago. Many feared the uncertainty of a close race and the potential for civil unrest. 
• Trump’s victory is likely to accelerate macroeconomic trends already in motion: labour supply (weaker), the supply of tradeable goods (contracting) and a deteriorating fiscal backdrop. These are likely to lead to higher near-term inflation and higher inflation volatility.
• Unlike Trump’s first term, we now have the largest war in Europe in decades, the biggest conflict in the Middle East in decades, increasing military tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, as well as a rapidly fracturing global order that pits China/Russia/Iran/North Korea against the US/NATO/Japan/South Korea/Australia blocs.
• A more “transactional” approach to US foreign policy is likely, with greater reliance on bilateral negotiations, less emphasis on long-term strategic implications and an accelerating focus on defence/national security. We may also see more use of US economic power as “leverage” across the geopolitical landscape, with significantly higher tariffs on China, but also on some allies across Europe and the Indo-Pacific, and a higher priority on US energy production and export.
• The Trump administration could lead to a wider set of potential outcomes in Ukraine including increasing US pressure on the Zelensky government to negotiate an end to the conflict.
• Where are the potential beneficiaries? It’s clear that the Trump administration is going to be more supportive of fossil fuels and US energy production. US exporters of natural gas and oil stand to benefit, but supply disruption could be a concern in a more geopolitically challenging environment. Given 10-year yields are a lot higher than they were in 2016, typical Trump trades such as small caps, being interest-rate-sensitive, may not react as positively in this cycle as they did then. Financials and large-cap banks could benefit from deregulation, and consolidation could benefit some regional banks, and potentially other sectors, such as health care. 
• Emerging markets may present relative-value opportunities and China and Brazil may be particular winners here, despite potential headwinds from tariffs and deglobalisation.
• Looking ahead, polarisation is still building. Income inequality remains both the main driver and a key driver of structural policy decisions. Resolving inequality is a major challenge that the new administration will have to tackle.