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The first Trump administration isn’t a perfect analogy for assessing what kind of US foreign policy we should expect over the next four years. Unlike the first time around, we now have the largest war in Europe in decades, the biggest conflict in the Middle East in decades, increasing military tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, as well as a rapidly fracturing global order that pits China/Russia/Iran/North Korea against the US/NATO/Japan/South Korea/Australia blocs. In addition, we are seeing the increasingly negative national security implications of climate change. These shifts in the geopolitical backdrop are structural, long term, and will likely continue regardless of this election result.
US national security policies will matter to this backdrop, and I expect the following in a second Trump administration:
All of this remains supportive of existing long-term national security investment themes, including legacy defense, defense innovation, and in particular, climate adaptation given that there will likely be less momentum toward decarbonization at the federal level over the next four years; this backdrop will also likely accelerate disruption/differentiation across regional, country, industry, company, and asset class levels — again, an ongoing positive for active management.
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Monthly Market Review — August 2024
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Jameson Dunn