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Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — December issue

Marco Giordano, Investment Director
January 2025
4 min read
2026-02-28
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.

Welcome to December’s edition of Bonds in Brief, our monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets for fixed income investors. Each month, we explore material macro changes and how best to navigate the latest risks and opportunities we see within bond markets. 

Key points

  • While 2024 was robust for credit, December was particularly challenging for both rate and most credit markets, which recorded modest negative total and excess returns. Higher-yielding fixed income sectors enjoyed another stellar year of performance.
  • The pace of monetary policy easing has started to differ across countries. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered its key policy rate target by 25 basis points (bps) and expects to make only two further cuts in 2025. The European Central Bank also cut rates by 25 bps but its significantly more dovish rhetoric than the Fed’s reflects the euro area’s more challenging economic environment. Despite slowing activity, the Bank of England kept rates on hold amid signs of persistent inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the sole economy with monetary policy set for deflation, kept rates unchanged but Governor Ueda Kazuo signalled that the next rate hike is nearing.
  • We enter the new year in the context of increased uncertainty, driven by the new US administration’s policy initiatives, still high interest rates, tariffs, China stimulus, equity market correlation and diverging global economic paths. This paints a picture of fixed income markets as a dynamic place for 2025 and we start with higher yields than we did this time last year, leaving substantial potential cushion for fixed income investors.

What are we watching? 

  • Central bank independence may be tested. The recent tone from the BOJ suggests some caution in its next policy step, with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba advocating a slower pace of tightening to secure support for the government’s supplementary budget, leading to looser fiscal and monetary stances. That combination of lower real interest rates and a potentially more politicised central bank is likely to put pressure on the currency. And while it is unclear what tension might arise during the next US administration, as of this writing, I note the voluntary resignation of the Fed’s vice chair for Supervision, Michael Barr, who chose to resign versus the likely alternative of a legal battle to replace him in his supervisory role.
  • Debt sustainability in Europe. This issue is starting to rear its head more forcefully as economic growth slows but governments have shown no signs of reining in spending to bring down budget deficits. Ageing populations are likely to push welfare expenses even higher, while defence budgets will come under scrutiny by the incoming Trump administration, with spending expected to accelerate as many countries are still falling short of the NATO commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defence. The sustainability of debt dynamics may come sharply into focus in 2025, with bond markets increasingly focused on government spending commitments, growth prospects and the impact of loosening monetary policy. As we have seen with the vote of no confidence in France, the political consequences can be significant.
  • US debt ceiling. The US will reach its statutory debt ceiling at some point between 14 and 20 January, at which time the Treasury will provide an update on how long its extraordinary measures can last until Congress will need to raise the ceiling. Previous failed processes to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner prompted rating agency action and contributed to market volatility.
  • Tariffs. With Trump’s presidential inauguration on 20 January fast approaching, tariffs remain front and centre, as capital markets attempt to divine the new rates that will be implemented at the end of the month. Given that inflation breakeven rates are back to the mid-range of where they traded during much of 2024 (approximately 2.40% for 5-year Treasury breakevens), markets still have not really priced in a substantial policy change.

Where are the opportunities?

  • Given how drawn out and uncertain the rate cycle has been, our key conviction remains a focus on higher-quality total return strategies that are less constrained by benchmarks. This could include global sovereign and currency strategies that have the potential to shine during these periods or unconstrained strategies that are able to navigate the late cycle by allocating across different sectors. These strategies could also enable investors to allocate capital away from cash and reduce reinvestment risk without taking on significant duration or credit risk. 
  • With cuts on the way, we see core fixed income, particularly credit, strategies as increasingly attractive from both an income and capital protection perspective. Moreover, with the gradual cooling of inflation and slowing of the economy, higher-quality fixed income is likely to benefit from positive convexity (its price benefiting from lower yields). For European investors looking to protect themselves from ongoing volatility, high-quality income may offer an attractive avenue not just in local but also global markets.
  • We think high-yield and emerging markets debt still offer potential, but advocate a cautious approach given how late we are in the cycle and the normalising of default rates relative to current spreads. At the same time, the robust additional income potential may make high yield a good equity substitute. For all higher-yielding credit — including high yield, bank loans and convertible debt — we believe an “up-in-quality” issuer bias is warranted. 

Expert

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