Interest rates

event

3 min

Article

2025-06-30

Active management Fixed income Outlook Content CoE Program Global Program Credit Government bonds Investment grade Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Article

Going their separate ways: Capitalizing on bond divergence

Our fixed income experts discuss how to position portfolios for a world of uncertainty and divergence, exploring key themes and evolving bond opportunities for 2025.

Multiple authors

event

7 min

Article

2025-12-31

Fiscal policy Interest rates Tactical allocation Content CoE Program Global Program iStrat Multi-asset Outlook Article

Trump 2.0: Time to curb your enthusiasm?

How does an allocator navigate markets when so much about the policy landscape is unknown? Our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offers their views on the new political realities in the US and their global implications, including for equities, bonds, and commodities.

Multiple authors

event

12 min

Article

2025-12-31

Interest rates Outlook Private investing Content CoE Program Global Program Article

Private credit outlook for 2025: 5 key trends

Our private credit experts, Emily Bannister and Sonali Wilson, highlight five critical trends for 2025: the convergence of public and private markets, AI's impact on private credit, the evolving role of banks in lending markets, the impact of higher interest rates, and the importance of financial covenants.

By

Emily Bannister, CFA

Sonali Wilson

event

6 min

Article

2025-12-31

Elections Fiscal policy Geopolitical Inflation Interest rates Macro WELLSaid Podcast Podcast

Trump 2.0: US election market impacts

In the wake of the US election, macro strategists Juhi Dhawan and Michael Medeiros join host Thomas Mucha to discuss the market, policy, and geopolitical implications of Trump 2.0.

By

Michael Medeiros, CFA

event

21 min

Podcast

2025-11-30

Equity Economic cycle Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program Americas Inflation Monetary policy Yielding insights Article

What is “the economic cycle,” anyway?

See why the relationship between asset prices and the economic cycle is more complex than you might think, why a US recession is unlikely, and what a more dovish Fed could mean for the US and global markets.

By

event

5 min

Article

2025-10-31

Macro and market Interest rates Monetary policy Content CoE Program Global Program Article

Can central bank independence survive?

Can central bank independence survive? Macro Strategist John Butler discusses the challenges faced by central banks in an increasingly fraught political environment and how investors should adjust.

By

event

5 min

Article

2025-09-30

Economic cycle Interest rates Portfolio strategy Advised Retail Program iStrat Active management Article Chart in Focus Tactical allocation

Chart in Focus: What does the rate cut mean for equities and bonds?

Are rate cuts positive? On the heels of the much-anticipated initial Fed cut, in this article we look to historic precedent for where the markets could go in the coming months.

Multiple authors

event

3 min

Article

2025-09-30

Fixed income Monetary policy Yielding insights Content CoE Program Global Program Market commentary Americas Opportunistic Fixed Income Interest rates Article

The real issue on rate cuts? Keep your eyes on the dot (plot)

Keep your eyes on the Fed's 2025 dot plot. The real story is where policy rates are headed, not just the next rate cut.

By

event

3 min

Article

2025-09-30

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program Inflation Macro Monetary policy Geopolitical Article

Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — August issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the August issue of "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.

By

event

4 min

Article

2025-09-30

Active management Fixed income Macro and market Wealth Program Americas Brazil Canada Mexico USA APAC Asia Australia China India Japan EMEA Africa Europe France Germany Italy Russia United Kingdom Emerging markets Inflation Interest rates Macro Monetary policy Asset allocation Article

Time to capitalise on the evolving role of bonds?

We outline why we think the new economic era is elevating the role of bonds as a source of attractive and stable income, downside protection and portfolio diversification.

By

event

2 min

Article

2025-09-30

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program Geopolitical Inflation Macro Monetary policy Article

Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — July issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read July's issue of Bonds in Brief for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.

By

event

5 min

Article

2025-08-10

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Content CoE Program Global Program Yielding insights Article

Walking a mile in Fed Chair Powell’s shoes

A slow roll on rate cuts by the Fed could frustrate markets and lead to more volatility ahead of the September FOMC meeting. See our take on what to expect for the next few weeks.

By

event

4 min

Article

2025-08-31

Market disruptions Volatility Tactical allocation Institutional Program Content CoE Program Global Program Interest rates Multi-asset iStrat Article

Massive market sell-off: Justified or an overreaction?

What's behind the global market meltdown, and what should investors consider doing? Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson shares her views.

By

event

3 min

Article

2025-08-31

Fixed income Economic cycle Monetary policy Content CoE Program Global Program Credit USA Inflation Interest rates Yielding insights Article

Still waiting…Fed wants more data before cutting policy rates

Our expert dives into Fed policy following the July FMOC meeting.

By

event

3 min

Article

2024-10-31

Elections Interest rates Strategic allocation DB Public Program Content CoE Program Global Program Top of Mind USA Fixed income iStrat Article

Does the US election even matter? Thoughts on politics, Fed policy, and portfolios

What's next for interest rates and what impact will the US election have? Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros share their outlook and discuss the asset allocation implications.

By

Adam Berger, CFA

Michael Medeiros, CFA

event

9 min

Article

2025-06-30

Income Fixed income Interest rates Wealth Program Asia advised retail Credit Wealth Article Wealth Chart in Focus

Chart in Focus: Four key areas of opportunities in bonds amid Fed uncertainty

We discuss four key areas of opportunities in fixed income amid Fed uncertainty in the second half of the year.

By

Campe Goodman, CFA

event

3 min

Article

2025-07-31

Elections Inflation Interest rates Institutional Program Credit Government bonds Fixed income Americas Wellington on Washington and the World Article

Are US election probabilities now a critical driver of bond yields?

Our expert argues that the US election remains a critical catalyst for the bond market given the contrast between both parties as it relates to supply side policies such as trade and immigration, and to policy differences around taxation and regulation.

By

Michael Medeiros, CFA

event

3 min

Article

2024-11-30

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Content CoE Program Global Program Geopolitical Inflation Macro Monetary policy Article

Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — June issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read June's issue of Bonds in Brief for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.

By

event

5 min

Article

2025-07-31

Economic cycle Interest rates Late stage Venture capital Private investing Americas Whitepaper

Disappearing unicorns: The importance of capital efficiency in a higher-for-longer rate environment

Members of our late-state growth equity team share their views on the impact of interest rates on venture capital activity — including the ability of companies to reach “unicorns” status.

By

William Craig

Mark Watson

event

8 min

Whitepaper

2025-07-31

Interest rates Outlook Content CoE Program Global Program Inflation Tactical allocation Article iStrat

All-time highs and CPIs: What comes next?

Global fundamentals have kept markets content so far this year, but will politics sour the mood? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their views on the second half of 2024, including on equities, bonds, and commodities.

Multiple authors

event

14 min

Article

2025-01-08

Fixed income Interest rates Outlook Income Credit EM debt Government bonds High yield Investment grade Article

Capitalizing on rate shifts: Parsing opportunities in the second half

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Campe Goodman and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti discuss how to capitalize on potential rate shifts in the second half of the year

By

Campe Goodman, CFA

event

7 min

Article

2025-06-30

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy iStrat Article

When the Fed sneezes, the ECB… cuts rates regardless?

Since the late 1990s, when the US cycle turned, the rest of the world generally followed, with a lag. However, the new economic era is likely to result in greater cyclical divergence between countries and the need for different central bank responses. How should investors think about the age of economic divergence?

By

Supriya Menon

Alex King, CFA

event

7 min

Article

2025-03-21

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Geopolitical Inflation Macro Monetary policy Article

Bonds in Brief: making sense of the macro — May issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the May issue of Bonds in Brief for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.

By

event

4 min

Article

2025-06-30

Fixed income Macro and market Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Credit Government bonds Investment grade Article

June FOMC meeting: May disinflation is welcome, but is not enough for a rate cut

Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant discusses what June's FOMC meeting tells us about the US Federal Reserve’s latest thinking on interest-rate cuts.

By

event

3 min

Article

2025-06-30

Elections Inflation Outlook Interest rates Article Equity Fixed income Multi-asset

Thriving or surviving? The state of the US consumer and the economic implications

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan examines the condition of the all-important consumer, including the outlook for spending, the effects of inflation and prevailing interest rates, and the consequences for the overall economy.

By

event

8 min

Article

2025-06-30

Interest rates Monetary policy Outlook Economic cycle Fiscal policy Macro USA Japan Europe France Germany Italy United Kingdom Fixed income Macro hedge funds Credit Government bonds Investment grade Article

Governments have been slow to reduce their fiscal deficits — it could cost them

Our expert explores the investment implications of continued excessive deficit spending by G7 countries.

By

Eoin O'Callaghan

event

4 min

Article

2025-06-30

Credit Interest rates Asset allocation Fixed income Top of Mind Article Tactical allocation iStrat

Structuring core fixed income: A constructive view on market and macro conditions

Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Connor Fitzgerald discuss the interest-rate environment and the fundamental picture in investment-grade credit and high yield.

By

Adam Berger, CFA

Connor Fitzgerald, CFA

event

7 min

Article

2025-05-30

Active management Interest rates Credit Inflation Income Growth Tactical allocation Fixed income Article iStrat

New era demands a nimble approach to credit

Our expert explains why deep research and an active approach are effective ways for fixed income investors to uncover credit opportunities in today's market.

By

Campe Goodman, CFA

event

5 min

Article

2025-05-31

Multi-asset iStrat Tactical allocation Article Fixed income Interest rates Quarterly Asset Allocation Outlook

With the Fed on hold, is the case for bonds kaput?

Amid worries about sticky inflation, the market has scaled back its expectations for interest rate cuts this year. But even if rate cuts are on hold a while longer, members of our Multi-Asset Team still think investors should consider a move from cash to bonds.

By

Alex King, CFA

event

5 min

Article

2025-05-30

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Geopolitical Inflation Macro Monetary policy Credit EM debt Government bonds High yield Investment grade Article

Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro — April issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the April issue of "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.

By

Nick Samouilhan, PhD, CFA, FRM

event

4 min

Article

2025-05-31

Asset allocation Economic cycle Interest rates iStrat program Multi-asset Multi-Asset solutions iStrat Video

Exploring active opportunities amid continued regime change

Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, APAC, Nick Samouilhan outlines why today's environment of dispersion, divergence and disruption offers potentially compelling opportunities for active investors.

By

event

2 min

Video

2025-04-30

Inflation Economic cycle Monetary policy Americas Interest rates Fixed income Article

Powell back to waiting on inflation data

Our expert's key takeaways from the May FOMC meeting.

By

event

2 min

Article

2025-05-31

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Fiscal policy USA Credit Article

The Fed’s lessons learned from its COVID response

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana breaks down the central bank's policy decisions during the pandemic and explains how they continue to affect financial markets.

By

event

6 min

Article

2025-04-30

Elections Interest rates Inflation Americas Article

The immigration surge: Political challenge, economic blessing?

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the impact of rising immigration, a top issue in this year's US elections, on growth, interest rates, and the labor market.

By

event

4 min

Article

2025-04-30

Fixed income Interest rates Bonds in Brief Fixed income program Geopolitical Monetary policy Credit High yield Article

Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro — March issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the latest "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.

By

event

4 min

Article

2025-04-30

Macro and market Japan Fixed income Equity Macro Interest rates Article

Four questions for investors after Japan’s historic hike

With the Bank of Japan having finally moved out of negative rates, Macro Strategist John Butler identifies the four key questions he believes investors should focus on.

By

event

5 min

Article

2025-04-30

Multi-asset iStrat Tactical allocation Asset allocation Article Interest rates Economic cycle iStrat program Quarterly Asset Allocation Outlook

Do fundamentals support a risk-on tilt?

Surprisingly strong economic growth, declining inflation, easy financial conditions — can it get any better for markets? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.

Multiple authors

event

Article

2025-03-31

Fiscal policy Volatility Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Interest rates Americas Fixed income Credit Government bonds High yield Investment grade Quick Take

FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility

The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference.

By

event

Quick Take

2025-03-31

Fixed income Interest rates Investment grade Opportunistic Fixed Income Global Credit Plus Multi-Sector Credit High yield Credit Americas Economic cycle Fixed income program Quick Take

Agency MBS key questions for 2024

Is there room for mortgage spreads to tighten further? Brian Conroy and Joseph Marvan examine this and seven other questions that will be significant for the agency MBS market in 2024.

By

Brian Conroy, CFA

Joseph Marvan, CFA

event

Quick Take

2025-03-31

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Fixed income program Inflation Fiscal policy USA Credit Article

Is the US economy really that different since COVID?

US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019.

By

event

Article

2025-03-31

Fixed income Interest rates Bonds in Brief Credit High yield Geopolitical Monetary policy Fixed income program Article

Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - February issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read February's "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.

By

event

Article

2025-03-31

Fixed income Interest rates Bonds in Brief Credit High yield Geopolitical Monetary policy Fixed income program Article

Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - January issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read January's "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.

By

event

Article

2025-02-28

Interest rates Venture capital Late stage Private investing Alternatives Americas Private companies Private investments Article

No more free lunch: Impact of higher interest rates on private equity strategies

We explain what the direct and indirect rate exposure of buyouts, venture capital, growth equity, secondaries, and fund-of-funds mean for investors.

By

William Craig

Mark Watson

event

Article

2025-01-31

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Fixed income program Inflation Monetary policy Credit Article

Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - December issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.

By

event

Article

2024-12-31

Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Credit Americas China Europe Fixed income program Quick Take

Bizarro World: Could 2024 be the opposite of 2023?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the dynamics that may upend investor expectations of a repeat of 2023 this year.

By

event

Quick Take

2025-01-17

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Interest rates Inflation Credit Monetary policy Fixed income program Article

Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - November issue

What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.

By

event

Article

2024-12-31

Outlook Fundamental equity EM equity Large cap Small cap Equity USA APAC China United Kingdom Emerging markets Growth Asset allocation Volatility Interest rates Economic cycle Article

Will a “Goldilocks” economy be just right for equity markets?

We provide an outlook on the ongoing shift to new investment regime, and the market segments that we expect will most heavily influence global equity performance in the coming year.

By

Andrew Heiskell

event

Article

2024-12-31

Outlook Interest rates Fixed income Global Credit Plus Global High Yield Opportunistic Fixed Income Multi-Sector Credit Fixed income program Article

Rates: Tracking the trade-off between inflation and growth

In their 2024 rates outlook, Investment Directors Amar Reganti and Marco Giordano investigate the treacherous trade-off faced by central banks and what it means for bond investors.

By

event

Article

2024-12-31

Interest rates Economic cycle Monetary policy Fixed income program Americas Fixed income Government bonds Investment grade Multi-Sector Credit Global Credit Plus Quick Take

Fed’s projections yielded mixed results this year — what’s in store for 2024?

Our Fed watcher opines on 2023 policy and looks ahead to 2024.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-03-31

Japan Macro and market Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Fixed income program Quick Take

Should investors prepare for a rate hike in Japan?

Investment Directors Marco Giordano and Masahiko Loo discuss why a rate rise in Japan may occur sooner than markets expect.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-12-31

Macro and market Interest rates Artificial intelligence (AI) Macro hedge funds EM debt Government bonds Credit High yield Investment grade Fixed income Alternatives Macro Alternatives investing Article

Macro implications of the AI revolution: is the market right?

Macro Strategist John Butler sets out an initial framework to help answer key questions about the potential macro impact of artificial intelligence.

By

event

Article

2024-11-30

Outlook Macro and market Interest rates Germany Macro Economic cycle Fixed income program Article

2024: A year of intensifying macro regime change?

John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan explore why 2024 could be a year of intensifying macro regime change and what it means for investors.

By

Eoin O'Callaghan

event

Article

2024-11-30

Interest rates Asset allocation Monetary policy Fixed income program iStrat program Income Tactical allocation Fixed income iStrat Quick Take

You snooze, you may lose: The case for bonds

There are signs the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, but some uncertainty remains. With that in mind, Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson considers the timing of a move from cash to bonds.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-11-30

Bonds in Brief Fixed income Inflation Interest rates United Kingdom Monetary policy Fixed income program Article

The great central bank balancing act

Marco Giordano examines the difficult balancing act that central banks around the world are seeking to perform and its likely implications for investors.

By

event

Article

2024-11-30

Asset allocation Interest rates Inflation iStrat Multi-asset Tactical allocation Quarterly Asset Allocation Outlook Article

Is bad news for the economy actually good news for markets?

While it has taken longer than expected, higher interest rates are starting to take their toll on the global economy and the "bad news is good news" market narrative could be changing. Members of our Investment Strategy team offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.

Multiple authors

event

Article

2024-03-31

Long-short Europe Volatility Alternatives Market disruptions Interest rates Inflation Alternatives investing Article

Long/short investing in European equities' growing dispersion

We explore how growing dispersion in European equity markets is driving opportunities for long/short investors, fueled by structurally higher inflation, changing market leadership, and a renewed focus on valuation.

By

Dirk Enderlein, CFA

event

Article

2024-09-30

Interest rates Economic cycle Monetary policy Americas Fixed income Government bonds Investment grade Global Credit Plus Multi-Sector Credit Quick Take

Fed not yet willing to declare victory on inflation

We think the Fed is done raising rates for this cycle, despite the likelihood that they are being overly optimistic about inflation. Read to find out why.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-03-31

Bank liquidity Regulatory Hedge funds Global Industry Research Alternatives Financials Americas Interest rates Monetary policy Volatility Inflation Fintech program Alternatives investing Article Fintech

US regional banking sector update

We explore how banking regulation and legislation could impact US regional banks, including highlighting the potential for M&A activity and for dispersion to drive long/short opportunities.

Multiple authors

event

Article

2024-08-31

Long-short Financials Fintech Global Industry Research Alternatives Volatility Bank liquidity Interest rates Monetary policy Fintech program Alternatives investing Article

Financials amid rising dispersion

We explore why we believe dispersion across stocks, sectors, and geographies is supporting numerous secular themes in long/short investing in financials.

Multiple authors

event

Article

2024-09-30

Fiscal policy Interest rates Monetary policy USA Quick Take

After the US downgrade: Thoughts on public debt, bond yields, and Fed policy

In the wake of the US debt downgrade by Fitch, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains what worries her most about the nation's debt situation and considers the impact on the term premium and the Fed’s plans.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-08-31

Income Credit Interest rates iStrat Investment grade Fixed income Americas Inflation Fiscal policy Monetary policy Fixed income program Quick Take

Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds

Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.

By

Patrick Wattiau

event

Quick Take

2024-08-31

Economic cycle Interest rates EM debt Opportunistic Fixed Income Multi-Sector Credit Global Credit Plus Fixed income Emerging markets Total return Quick Take

How would emerging markets weather a “standard” recession?

Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth explores the potential impact of a developed market recession on emerging markets.

By

Gillian Edgeworth

event

Quick Take

2024-08-31

Stewardship Interest rates Large cap Fundamental equity Global Stewards Equity Sustainable investing Article

Building resilience: Key questions equity investors need to ask today

Consider these essential traits for re-assessing the resilience of your core equity portfolio against higher interest rates and more adverse macro conditions.

By

Yolanda Courtines, CFA

event

Article

2024-07-12

Economic cycle Japan Monetary policy Opportunistic Fixed Income Multi-Sector Credit Global Credit Plus Euro High Yield Global High Yield Government bonds EM debt Investment grade High yield Fixed income Equity Multi-asset Interest rates Quick Take

How to interpret the Bank of Japan’s latest policy shift

We analyse the wide-ranging investment implications of the Bank of Japan's latest policy shift.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-08-31

Interest rates Inflation Monetary policy Government bonds Fixed income USA Fiscal policy COVID Quick Take

Chair Powell maintains optionality

Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant shares what she thinks matters most for investors in light of the latest interest-rate hike from the Fed.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-07-31

Income Credit Interest rates Fixed income Americas Quick Take

Bank loans remain attractive despite macroeconomic uncertainty

Our experts believe that bank loans currently offer attractive levels of income and have already priced in an overly bearish macroeconomic view.

By

Jeff Heuer, CFA

David Marshak

event

Quick Take

2024-07-31

USA Inflation Credit Quick Take Interest rates Fixed income Bank liquidity COVID

State of the credit markets: Does cash rule everything around us?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana outlines the state of the credit market today, compares historical periods of quantitative easing, and warns credit investors of cash scarcity in the near future.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-06-30

Outlook Equity Volatility Macro and market Inflation Economic cycle Interest rates Article

New market regime, a new environment for global equities?

Global Equity Strategist Andrew Heiskell characterizes the new market regime, makes a case for shelving the old investment playbook, and shares potential investment implications for equity markets.

By

Andrew Heiskell

event

Article

2024-06-30

Credit Interest rates Currency Fixed income Economic cycle Volatility Geopolitical Fiscal policy Bank liquidity Quick Take

FX outlook: Is USD exceptionalism withering away with the Fed hiking cycle nearing an end?

Discover the status of the USD today, learn where the greenback may be headed going forward, and understand why.

By

Martin Harvey, CFA

event

Quick Take

2024-01-31

Interest rates Monetary policy Inflation Fixed income program Americas Fixed income Government bonds Quick Take

Fed skips along the path to a pause

Jeremy Forster analyzes the Federal Reserve's decision to pause its interest-rate hiking cycle, explains why he believes it could be an extended pause, and shares the potential implications for fixed income markets.

By

Elisabeth Perenick, FSA, CFA

event

Quick Take

2024-06-30

Outlook Private equity Bank liquidity Volatility Interest rates Inflation Private investments Article

Private credit in a new regime

We explore how a shifting macro backdrop, ongoing banking crisis, and evolving competitive dynamics may create opportunities across private credit markets.

By

Emeka Onukwugha, CFA

event

Article

2024-06-30

Outlook EM debt Interest rates Fixed income program Fiscal policy Monetary policy Inflation Emerging markets Fixed income Quick Take

A quiet bull market in EM local debt?

Brian Garvey illustrates the recent strength of emerging markets local debt following an extended period of underperformance.

By

Brian Garvey

event

Quick Take

2024-06-30

Outlook Credit Volatility Fixed income Interest rates Inflation Geopolitical Article

Fixed income 2023: Will opportunity keep knocking in the second half?

Learn where Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti sees opportunities in the fixed income market today and dive deeper into the three key themes he thinks investors should consider going forward.

By

event

Article

2024-06-30

Outlook High yield Bank liquidity Fixed income Volatility Economic cycle Inflation Interest rates Monetary policy Brand Article

Global high yield: Attractive entry points could soon emerge

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Konstantin Leidman shares his outlook for high-yield fixed income for the rest of this year and beyond.

By

Konstantin Leidman, CFA

event

Article

2024-06-30

Volatility Inflation Credit Article Interest rates Fixed income Income Outlook Bank liquidity

Credit market outlook: Expect greater opportunities in back half of 2023

Against a backdrop of elevated recession risks and banking-sector stress, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn identifies relative-value sector opportunities in the credit market.

By

event

Article

2024-06-30

Outlook Inflation Interest rates Fixed income Americas Monetary policy Fiscal policy Economic cycle Article

The “money illusion” economy: Misplaced faith in markets?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana shares a skeptical view of US Federal Reserve policy, his assessment of the current market backdrop, and his view of what the future could hold.

By

event

Article

2024-06-30

EM equity Brazil Inflation Equity Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Asset allocation Quick Take

Have you looked at Brazilian equities lately?

Equity Research Analyst David Reid believes now is an opportune time for EM equity investors to consider implementing or augmenting portfolio allocations to Brazilian stocks.

By

David Reid, CFA

event

Quick Take

2024-05-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation USA Economic cycle Bank liquidity Quick Take

Did the Fed just make a policy error?

Did the Fed just make a policy error? All things considered, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster thinks the answer is yes. Learn why and what the implications could be.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-05-31

Multi-asset Bank liquidity Inflation Fixed income USA Currency Volatility Interest rates Monetary policy Quick Take

Three macro assumptions that could be just plain wrong

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his non-consensus take on three entrenched, but potentially flawed, beliefs in today's market environment.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-04-30

Bank liquidity Volatility Interest rates Business practices USA Financials Equity Quick Take

US banking system: Three pressing questions

Equity Strategist Andrew Heiskell asks three questions investors ought to ask when it comes to the recent US banking system volatility.

By

Andrew Heiskell

event

Quick Take

2024-04-30

Bank liquidity High yield Fixed income program Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Fixed income Credit Quick Take

High-yield bonds: Too early to get aggressive?

Our high-yield team suggests a somewhat defensive risk posture for now but expects opportunities to take on greater risk to arise later this year.

Multiple authors

event

Quick Take

2024-04-30

Bank liquidity Interest rates Economic cycle Credit Fixed income Consumer Americas Quick Take

Will higher rates sap US consumer spending?

Higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs. Could a consumer-led US recession be looming? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Kyra Fecteau sees three factors that may help mitigate the impact.

By

Kyra Fecteau, CFA

event

Quick Take

2024-03-31

Bank liquidity Monetary policy Inflation Economic cycle Interest rates USA Quick Take

Financial stability versus inflation: The Fed’s balancing act has gotten much trickier

The Fed’s policy calculus has clearly changed somewhat over the past few weeks but the central bank may not be done hiking rates just yet, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster.

By

event

Quick Take

2024-03-31

Bank liquidity Monetary policy Credit Fixed income program Volatility Interest rates Financials Quick Take

Securitized assets: Caught in the storm but with scattered bright spots

Securitized assets have been on the front lines of the ongoing turmoil in the banking sector, but not all securitized subsectors appear equally vulnerable.

Multiple authors

event

Quick Take

2024-03-31

Credit Asia Emerging markets Asia advised retail Fixed income Interest rates Monetary policy Whitepaper

Deep and diverse: Welcome to today’s Asia credit market

Two of our Singapore-based experts on Asia credit discuss the market's key features, along with how it's evolved and is likely to continue doing so.

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Ross Dilkes, CFA

Tanya Sanwal

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Whitepaper

2024-03-31

Monetary policy Currency Government bonds Fixed income Japan Interest rates Volatility Quick Take

New BOJ governor: Dove, hawk… or owl?

Investment Director Masahiko Loo and Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu discuss potential implications of the upcoming “changing of the guard” at the BOJ.

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Jitu Naidu

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Quick Take

2024-03-31

Credit Investment grade Interest rates Volatility Income Risk management Whitepaper

Fixed income 2023: Ripe for a reversal

Three of our fixed income investment professionals discuss the potentially compelling opportunity set to be found in today's global bond markets.

Multiple authors

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2024-03-31

Credit Volatility Asset allocation Fixed income Economic cycle Interest rates Quick Take

Sector rotation opportunities for nimble credit investors

Following a credit market rally, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn still sees value in higher-yielding sectors but believes investors should stay nimble.

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Raina Dunkelberger, CFA, CAIA

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Quick Take

2024-02-29

Credit Interest rates Asset allocation Fixed income Economic cycle Quick Take

What’s driving convertibles in 2023?

Following a challenging 2022, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mike Barry and Investment Director Raina Dunkelberger highlight three tailwinds that may help turn the tide for convertibles.

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Michael Barry

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Quick Take

2024-01-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation Fixed income Economic cycle USA Quick Take

February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone

The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.

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Quick Take

2023-09-30

Thematic exposure Emerging markets Economic cycle Distribution EM equity Equity Inflation Interest rates Net zero Geopolitical Article Unique Perspectives Thematic solutions iStrat

Why investing in themes for EM equities may reap rewards

Portfolio Manager Dáire Dunne outlines why he is increasingly optimistic about the potential opportunities within select EM equity themes this year.

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Dáire Dunne, CFA

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Article

2024-02-29

Monetary policy Interest rates Japan Fixed income Economic cycle Inflation Volatility Quick Take Alternatives

Why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan

Macro Strategist John Butler explores why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan and what is likely to happen next.

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Quick Take

2024-01-31

Credit Investment grade Diversification Fixed income Interest rates Monetary policy Risk management Currency Quick Take

Spread the risk: Our top three fixed income diversifiers for 2023

Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights three types of strategies that may be well positioned to provide fixed income portfolio diversification going forward.

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Adam Norman

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Quick Take

2024-01-31

Credit Interest rates Asset allocation Fixed income Economic cycle Monetary policy Quick Take

CLOs: Poised to outperform in 2023?

Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have been sparking investor interest lately — and with good reason, say Investment Director Andrew Bayerl and Investment Specialist Celene Klimas.

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Andrew Bayerl, CFA

Celene Klimas, CFA

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Quick Take

2024-01-31

Credit Investment grade Economic cycle Fixed income Interest rates Quick Take

Can US bank loans “carry” investors through 2023?

Fixed Income Portfolios managers Jeffrey Heuer, CFA and David Marshak and Investment Director Nick Leichtman describe what they see as the most prudent approach to the bank loans asset class in 2023 and why.

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Jeffrey Heuer, CFA

David Marshak

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Quick Take

2024-01-31

Japan Volatility Monetary policy Private pension (DB) Retirement Interest rates Quick Take

Could Japan face a UK-style pension crisis?

Investment Director Masahiko Loo explores the risks of Japan facing a UK-style pension crisis and identifies fundamental reasons that make Japanese pension funds inherently less vulnerable.

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2024-01-31

Credit Investment grade Economic cycle Fixed income Interest rates Monetary policy Asset allocation Quick Take Alternatives Long-short

Take credit: Our five best credit market ideas for 2023

Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights credit market opportunities that he expects to arise over the course of 2023, against a backdrop of slowing growth.

By

Adam Norman

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Quick Take

2024-01-31

High yield Credit Economic cycle Fixed income Interest rates Monetary policy Asset allocation Quick Take

High yield: Opportunity to pivot in 2023?

Our high-yield bond portfolio managers have a guardedly optimistic outlook on the market and believe security selection will be key to benchmark-relative outperformance in 2023.

Multiple authors

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2024-01-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation Economic cycle USA Quick Take

The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.

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Quick Take

2023-12-31

Investment grade Fixed income Portfolio strategy Inflation Interest rates Asset allocation Monetary policy Total return Credit Quick Take

Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit

Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.

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Geoff Austein-Miller

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Quick Take

2023-12-31

Europe Inflation Economic cycle Outlook No Optimizely Monetary policy Interest rates Fiscal policy Multi-asset Article

Why Europe could surprise in 2023

Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.

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Eoin O'Callaghan

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Article

2023-12-31

geopolitical-outlook-2023-structural-policies

Geopolitical Inflation Elections Outlook No Optimizely Interest rates Article

Geopolitical outlook: Shifting policies, structural advantages?

Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha and Macro Strategist Santiago Millán look at five geopolitical themes they believe investors should watch in 2023.

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Thomas Mucha

Santiago Millán, CFA

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Article

2023-12-31

Inflation Economic cycle Macro and market Outlook No Optimizely Fiscal policy Interest rates Monetary policy Geopolitical USA Consumer Article

2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy

In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.

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Article

2023-12-31

Emerging markets EM debt Monetary policy No Optimizely Inflation Interest rates Volatility Fixed income Outlook Article

Emerging markets debt outlook: A glass half full or half empty?

Against a still-challenging global backdrop for emerging markets, Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth highlights opportunities created by extreme credit spread dispersion across individual countries.

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Gillian Edgeworth

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Article

2023-12-31

Credit Inflation Interest rates Volatility Asset allocation Fixed income Quick Take

Three tailwinds that could power CLO equity in 2023 and beyond

Three members of our fixed income team argue that the headwinds currently facing CLO equity should give way to improved returns in 2023 and beyond.

Multiple authors

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Quick Take

2023-11-30

Monetary policy Economic cycle Inflation Interest rates USA Quick Take

November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?

Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.

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2023-01-31

Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Economic cycle Currency Japan Fixed income Quick Take

Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.

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Jitu Naidu

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2023-01-31

Credit Interest rates Monetary policy Inflation Economic cycle Volatility Fixed income USA Quick Take

Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.

Multiple authors

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2023-01-31

Equity Volatility Monetary policy Economic cycle Interest rates Quick Take

Equity market volatility is perking up: Why now?

The recent uptick in equity volatility may be about looming macro and systemic risks in today's uncertain environment. Director of Global Derivatives Gordy Lawrence explains.

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Gordon Lawrence, CFA

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Quick Take

2023-10-31

Interest rates Inflation Credit Asset allocation Fixed income USA Quick Take

Bank loans: Can issuers overcome higher interest expenses?

The short answer, according to Fixed Income Portfolio Managers Jeff Heuer and David Marshak, is that many can. And, they believe bank loans can outperform many other fixed-income sectors over the next 12 months.

Multiple authors

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2023-01-31

Volatility Fiscal policy Monetary policy Currency Interest rates Economic cycle United Kingdom Article

UK in the eye of the storm: which countries might be next?

Macro Strategist John Butler provides his latest take on what's happening in the UK and its broader global implications.

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Article

2022-12-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation Economic cycle USA Multi-asset Quick Take

The Fed’s “lean, leave, then clean” strategy

US inflation could prove "stickier" than many observers think. How might that influence Fed policy into 2023? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster opines.

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2022-12-31

Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates USA Quick Take No Optimizely Unique Perspectives

No more Mr. Nice Guy? Fed Chair Powell talks tough on inflation

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.

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2023-09-30

Economic cycle Inflation Portfolio strategy Interest rates Monetary policy Multi-asset Quick Take

Positioning for a “pricey” recession scenario

Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti offer portfolio positioning ideas for the potential recession scenario that may lie ahead.

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Jitu Naidu

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Quick Take

2022-11-30

Emerging markets EM debt Credit Interest rates Currency Inflation Monetary policy Article

Emerging local debt markets: Time to wade in?

Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Michael Henry sees positive trends across ELD fundamentals, valuations, and technicals that could be tailwinds for these markets going forward.

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Michael Henry

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Article

2023-08-31

Fintech Digital payments Economic cycle Tech & Innovation Disruption Interest rates Equity Global Industry Research Fundamental equity Quick Take Financials

Fintech industry outlook in a recession

We explore the current environment for the fintech industry and highlight a few factors that show why the outlook for payments and other related subindustries may be less challenging than many may anticipate.

By

Matt Ross, CFA

Bruce Glazer

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Quick Take

2023-07-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Inflation USA Fixed income Quick Take

July Fed meeting: Rising inflation vs falling growth

After another rate hike, the Fed must balance moderating growth with mounting inflation. Caroline Casavant opines on how the central bank might navigate this dilemma.

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2022-10-31

Inflation Monetary policy Interest rates USA Article

US inflation: Supply chains to the rescue?

Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan shares her inflation outlook, including the prospects for supply-chain normalization, and her views on the market implications.

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2023-07-31

Credit Interest rates Portfolio strategy Quick Take

Don’t be surprised if CLO equity surprises to the upside

Members of our fixed income team, including Portfolio Manager Alyssa Irving, believe CLO equity could be poised to outperform many other risk assets over the next few years.

Multiple authors

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2022-10-31

Credit Economic cycle Interest rates Monetary policy Government bonds USA Quick Take

Credit investing against a slower-growth, higher-inflation backdrop

The significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve in recent months has some prognosticators calling for an impending US recession. Not so fast, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn.

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2022-07-31

Monetary policy Inflation Interest rates Fixed income Quick Take

Timely musings on Fed policy and inflation

With rising inflation and interest rates dominating the financial headlines in recent weeks, I have been fielding a flurry of colleague and client questions about the likely future trajectory of US monetary policy. While I don’t claim to have all the answers, especially with so many “known unknowns” as of this writing, here are my latest thoughts.

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2022-08-30

Inflation Interest rates Monetary policy Value vs growth Equity Fixed income Quick Take

US inflation risk, angry bondholders, and silver linings

Here are quick thoughts on some common questions I’ve been asked recently about Fed policy, yields, the US dollar, and financial markets.

By

Tim Antonelli, CAIA, CFA, FRM, SCR

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2022-08-31

Credit Interest rates Risk management Monetary policy Quick Take

Empirical duration: reason for optimism on risk assets?

While rising rates often produce negative bond returns, combining the concept of empirical duration with a positive outlook on the credit cycle may bode well for some fixed income sectors' return prospects going forward. Investment Analyst Will Prenits and Investment Director Tobias Ripka explain.

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Will Prentis

Tobias Ripka, CFA

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2022-07-31

Inflation Europe Portfolio strategy Yield Monetary policy Interest rates Quick Take

Helping European investors navigate inflation fears

The recent shift to a higher inflation regime, with resulting expectations of tighter monetary policy and rising interest rates, presents a material challenge for European fixed income investors. Against this backdrop, Investment Analyst Will Prentis and Investment Director Tobias Ripka believe investment flexibility is key.

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Will Prentis

Tobias Ripka, CFA

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2022-07-31

Insurance Inflation Multi-asset Interest rates Insurance Asset Allocation Outlook Whitepaper

Higher inflation, rising rates: Front and center for insurers

With macro and market complications piling up through the first few months of 2022, Insurance Multi-Asset Strategist Tim Antonelli provides his investment implications for global insurers.

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2022-10-15

Credit Interest rates Portfolio strategy Inflation Quick Take

Four potentially powerful tailwinds for the securitized sector

In his latest Top of Mind session, Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger addressed a wide range of what-if scenarios on the minds of our clients. See what he has to say on Russia, China, cryptocurrencies, the IPO market, and many other topics in this brief article.

Multiple authors

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2022-06-30

Interest rates Equity USA Quick Take

How might equity sectors fare when Fed tightening begins?

We look back at how US equities have performed in the months following the beginning of a tightening cycle, as well as how bond yields have tended to behave.

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2022-05-31

Monetary policy Interest rates Equity Fixed income USA Quick Take

Credit and equity performance around Fed hiking cycles

One of the discussion topics du jour is how the credit and equity markets might react to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hikes that are widely anticipated in the coming months. As is often the case with me, I find it helpful here to refer to past hiking regimes and market performances as a sort of guidepost. The proof’s in the pudding To wit, I examined the historical returns of both US credit (for this purpose, proxied by corporate high-yield bonds) and US equities (represented by the S&P 500 Index) during the six months before the first rate increase of a Fed hiking cycle through the 12 months after said increase.

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2022-05-31

Inflation Interest rates USA Quick Take

Fed watch 2022: Year of the hawk?

With inflation on the rise and all eyes seemingly on the Fed these days, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster shares his takeaways from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s December 2021 meeting.

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