Trump 2.0: US election market impacts
In the wake of the US election, macro strategists Juhi Dhawan and Michael Medeiros join host Thomas Mucha to discuss the market, policy, and geopolitical implications of Trump 2.0.
What is “the economic cycle,” anyway?
See why the relationship between asset prices and the economic cycle is more complex than you might think, why a US recession is unlikely, and what a more dovish Fed could mean for the US and global markets.
Can central bank independence survive?
Can central bank independence survive? Macro Strategist John Butler discusses the challenges faced by central banks in an increasingly fraught political environment and how investors should adjust.
Chart in Focus: What does the rate cut mean for equities and bonds?
Are rate cuts positive? On the heels of the much-anticipated initial Fed cut, in this article we look to historic precedent for where the markets could go in the coming months.
Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — August issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the August issue of "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.
Time to capitalise on the evolving role of bonds?
We outline why we think the new economic era is elevating the role of bonds as a source of attractive and stable income, downside protection and portfolio diversification.
Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — July issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read July's issue of Bonds in Brief for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.
Walking a mile in Fed Chair Powell’s shoes
A slow roll on rate cuts by the Fed could frustrate markets and lead to more volatility ahead of the September FOMC meeting. See our take on what to expect for the next few weeks.
Massive market sell-off: Justified or an overreaction?
What's behind the global market meltdown, and what should investors consider doing? Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson shares her views.
Still waiting…Fed wants more data before cutting policy rates
Our expert dives into Fed policy following the July FMOC meeting.
Does the US election even matter? Thoughts on politics, Fed policy, and portfolios
What's next for interest rates and what impact will the US election have? Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Macro Strategist Mike Medeiros share their outlook and discuss the asset allocation implications.
Chart in Focus: Four key areas of opportunities in bonds amid Fed uncertainty
We discuss four key areas of opportunities in fixed income amid Fed uncertainty in the second half of the year.
Are US election probabilities now a critical driver of bond yields?
Our expert argues that the US election remains a critical catalyst for the bond market given the contrast between both parties as it relates to supply side policies such as trade and immigration, and to policy differences around taxation and regulation.
Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — June issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read June's issue of Bonds in Brief for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.
Disappearing unicorns: The importance of capital efficiency in a higher-for-longer rate environment
Members of our late-state growth equity team share their views on the impact of interest rates on venture capital activity — including the ability of companies to reach “unicorns” status.
All-time highs and CPIs: What comes next?
Global fundamentals have kept markets content so far this year, but will politics sour the mood? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their views on the second half of 2024, including on equities, bonds, and commodities.
Capitalizing on rate shifts: Parsing opportunities in the second half
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Campe Goodman and Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti discuss how to capitalize on potential rate shifts in the second half of the year
When the Fed sneezes, the ECB… cuts rates regardless?
Since the late 1990s, when the US cycle turned, the rest of the world generally followed, with a lag. However, the new economic era is likely to result in greater cyclical divergence between countries and the need for different central bank responses. How should investors think about the age of economic divergence?
Bonds in Brief: making sense of the macro — May issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the May issue of Bonds in Brief for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.
June FOMC meeting: May disinflation is welcome, but is not enough for a rate cut
Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant discusses what June's FOMC meeting tells us about the US Federal Reserve’s latest thinking on interest-rate cuts.
Thriving or surviving? The state of the US consumer and the economic implications
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan examines the condition of the all-important consumer, including the outlook for spending, the effects of inflation and prevailing interest rates, and the consequences for the overall economy.
Governments have been slow to reduce their fiscal deficits — it could cost them
Our expert explores the investment implications of continued excessive deficit spending by G7 countries.
Structuring core fixed income: A constructive view on market and macro conditions
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy Adam Berger and Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Connor Fitzgerald discuss the interest-rate environment and the fundamental picture in investment-grade credit and high yield.
With the Fed on hold, is the case for bonds kaput?
Amid worries about sticky inflation, the market has scaled back its expectations for interest rate cuts this year. But even if rate cuts are on hold a while longer, members of our Multi-Asset Team still think investors should consider a move from cash to bonds.
New era demands a nimble approach to credit
Our expert explains why deep research and an active approach are effective ways for fixed income investors to uncover credit opportunities in today's market.
Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro — April issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the April issue of "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.
Exploring active opportunities amid continued regime change
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, APAC, Nick Samouilhan outlines why today's environment of dispersion, divergence and disruption offers potentially compelling opportunities for active investors.
Powell back to waiting on inflation data
Our expert's key takeaways from the May FOMC meeting.
The Fed’s lessons learned from its COVID response
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana breaks down the central bank's policy decisions during the pandemic and explains how they continue to affect financial markets.
The immigration surge: Political challenge, economic blessing?
Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan considers the impact of rising immigration, a top issue in this year's US elections, on growth, interest rates, and the labor market.
Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro — March issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read the latest "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets.
Four questions for investors after Japan’s historic hike
With the Bank of Japan having finally moved out of negative rates, Macro Strategist John Butler identifies the four key questions he believes investors should focus on.
Do fundamentals support a risk-on tilt?
Surprisingly strong economic growth, declining inflation, easy financial conditions — can it get any better for markets? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
FOMC: Stable policy amid market volatility
The Fed is holding steady amid market turmoil. See our quick notes on the FOMC's March policy statement, forecasts, and the Fed chair's press conference.
Agency MBS key questions for 2024
Is there room for mortgage spreads to tighten further? Brian Conroy and Joseph Marvan examine this and seven other questions that will be significant for the agency MBS market in 2024.
Is the US economy really that different since COVID?
US economists have been touting the resilience of the post-COVID economic rebound. Brij Khurana dissects several key economic indicators to see what's really changed since 2019.
Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - February issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read February's "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.
Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - January issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read January's "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.
No more free lunch: Impact of higher interest rates on private equity strategies
We explain what the direct and indirect rate exposure of buyouts, venture capital, growth equity, secondaries, and fund-of-funds mean for investors.
Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - December issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.
Bizarro World: Could 2024 be the opposite of 2023?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana details the dynamics that may upend investor expectations of a repeat of 2023 this year.
Bonds in brief: making sense of the macro - November issue
What's driving global bond markets and what are the investment implications? Read "Bonds in brief" for Wellington Investment Director Marco Giordano's monthly assessment.
Will a “Goldilocks” economy be just right for equity markets?
We provide an outlook on the ongoing shift to new investment regime, and the market segments that we expect will most heavily influence global equity performance in the coming year.
Rates: Tracking the trade-off between inflation and growth
In their 2024 rates outlook, Investment Directors Amar Reganti and Marco Giordano investigate the treacherous trade-off faced by central banks and what it means for bond investors.
Fed’s projections yielded mixed results this year — what’s in store for 2024?
Our Fed watcher opines on 2023 policy and looks ahead to 2024.
Should investors prepare for a rate hike in Japan?
Investment Directors Marco Giordano and Masahiko Loo discuss why a rate rise in Japan may occur sooner than markets expect.
Macro implications of the AI revolution: is the market right?
Macro Strategist John Butler sets out an initial framework to help answer key questions about the potential macro impact of artificial intelligence.
2024: A year of intensifying macro regime change?
John Butler and Eoin O’Callaghan explore why 2024 could be a year of intensifying macro regime change and what it means for investors.
You snooze, you may lose: The case for bonds
There are signs the Federal Reserve's rate-hiking cycle may be nearing an end, but some uncertainty remains. With that in mind, Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson considers the timing of a move from cash to bonds.
The great central bank balancing act
Marco Giordano examines the difficult balancing act that central banks around the world are seeking to perform and its likely implications for investors.
Is bad news for the economy actually good news for markets?
While it has taken longer than expected, higher interest rates are starting to take their toll on the global economy and the "bad news is good news" market narrative could be changing. Members of our Investment Strategy team offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
Long/short investing in European equities' growing dispersion
We explore how growing dispersion in European equity markets is driving opportunities for long/short investors, fueled by structurally higher inflation, changing market leadership, and a renewed focus on valuation.
Fed not yet willing to declare victory on inflation
We think the Fed is done raising rates for this cycle, despite the likelihood that they are being overly optimistic about inflation. Read to find out why.
US regional banking sector update
We explore how banking regulation and legislation could impact US regional banks, including highlighting the potential for M&A activity and for dispersion to drive long/short opportunities.
Financials amid rising dispersion
We explore why we believe dispersion across stocks, sectors, and geographies is supporting numerous secular themes in long/short investing in financials.
After the US downgrade: Thoughts on public debt, bond yields, and Fed policy
In the wake of the US debt downgrade by Fitch, Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan explains what worries her most about the nation's debt situation and considers the impact on the term premium and the Fed’s plans.
Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds
Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.
How would emerging markets weather a “standard” recession?
Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth explores the potential impact of a developed market recession on emerging markets.
Building resilience: Key questions equity investors need to ask today
Consider these essential traits for re-assessing the resilience of your core equity portfolio against higher interest rates and more adverse macro conditions.
How to interpret the Bank of Japan’s latest policy shift
We analyse the wide-ranging investment implications of the Bank of Japan's latest policy shift.
Chair Powell maintains optionality
Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant shares what she thinks matters most for investors in light of the latest interest-rate hike from the Fed.
Bank loans remain attractive despite macroeconomic uncertainty
Our experts believe that bank loans currently offer attractive levels of income and have already priced in an overly bearish macroeconomic view.
State of the credit markets: Does cash rule everything around us?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana outlines the state of the credit market today, compares historical periods of quantitative easing, and warns credit investors of cash scarcity in the near future.
FX outlook: Is USD exceptionalism withering away with the Fed hiking cycle nearing an end?
Discover the status of the USD today, learn where the greenback may be headed going forward, and understand why.
Fed skips along the path to a pause
Jeremy Forster analyzes the Federal Reserve's decision to pause its interest-rate hiking cycle, explains why he believes it could be an extended pause, and shares the potential implications for fixed income markets.
Have you looked at Brazilian equities lately?
Equity Research Analyst David Reid believes now is an opportune time for EM equity investors to consider implementing or augmenting portfolio allocations to Brazilian stocks.
Did the Fed just make a policy error?
Did the Fed just make a policy error? All things considered, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster thinks the answer is yes. Learn why and what the implications could be.
Three macro assumptions that could be just plain wrong
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his non-consensus take on three entrenched, but potentially flawed, beliefs in today's market environment.
US banking system: Three pressing questions
Equity Strategist Andrew Heiskell asks three questions investors ought to ask when it comes to the recent US banking system volatility.
High-yield bonds: Too early to get aggressive?
Our high-yield team suggests a somewhat defensive risk posture for now but expects opportunities to take on greater risk to arise later this year.
Will higher rates sap US consumer spending?
Higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs. Could a consumer-led US recession be looming? Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Kyra Fecteau sees three factors that may help mitigate the impact.
Financial stability versus inflation: The Fed’s balancing act has gotten much trickier
The Fed’s policy calculus has clearly changed somewhat over the past few weeks but the central bank may not be done hiking rates just yet, says Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster.
Securitized assets: Caught in the storm but with scattered bright spots
Securitized assets have been on the front lines of the ongoing turmoil in the banking sector, but not all securitized subsectors appear equally vulnerable.
Tight money: Banks feeling the squeeze of higher rates
In this curated collection, some of our experts share their latest perspectives on the ongoing turmoil in the US banking sector and its potential implications.
Deep and diverse: Welcome to today’s Asia credit market
Two of our Singapore-based experts on Asia credit discuss the market's key features, along with how it's evolved and is likely to continue doing so.
New BOJ governor: Dove, hawk… or owl?
Investment Director Masahiko Loo and Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu discuss potential implications of the upcoming “changing of the guard” at the BOJ.
Fixed income 2023: Ripe for a reversal
Three of our fixed income investment professionals discuss the potentially compelling opportunity set to be found in today's global bond markets.
Sector rotation opportunities for nimble credit investors
Following a credit market rally, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn still sees value in higher-yielding sectors but believes investors should stay nimble.
What’s driving convertibles in 2023?
Following a challenging 2022, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Mike Barry and Investment Director Raina Dunkelberger highlight three tailwinds that may help turn the tide for convertibles.
February Fed meeting: Chair Powell strikes a more optimistic tone
The Fed just might still be able to engineer the hoped-for "soft landing" but it's not going to be easy, says Fixed Income Analyst Caroline Casavant.
Why investing in themes for EM equities may reap rewards
Portfolio Manager Dáire Dunne outlines why he is increasingly optimistic about the potential opportunities within select EM equity themes this year.
Why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan
Macro Strategist John Butler explores why global investors should watch the Bank of Japan and what is likely to happen next.
Spread the risk: Our top three fixed income diversifiers for 2023
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights three types of strategies that may be well positioned to provide fixed income portfolio diversification going forward.
CLOs: Poised to outperform in 2023?
Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) have been sparking investor interest lately — and with good reason, say Investment Director Andrew Bayerl and Investment Specialist Celene Klimas.
Can US bank loans “carry” investors through 2023?
Fixed Income Portfolios managers Jeffrey Heuer, CFA and David Marshak and Investment Director Nick Leichtman describe what they see as the most prudent approach to the bank loans asset class in 2023 and why.
Could Japan face a UK-style pension crisis?
Investment Director Masahiko Loo explores the risks of Japan facing a UK-style pension crisis and identifies fundamental reasons that make Japanese pension funds inherently less vulnerable.
Take credit: Our five best credit market ideas for 2023
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti highlights credit market opportunities that he expects to arise over the course of 2023, against a backdrop of slowing growth.
High yield: Opportunity to pivot in 2023?
Our high-yield bond portfolio managers have a guardedly optimistic outlook on the market and believe security selection will be key to benchmark-relative outperformance in 2023.
The Fed’s unenviable task for 2023
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Jeremy Forster offers his forward-looking take on the Fed's comments and latest rate hike coming out of its December meeting.
Hidden in plain sight: Overlooked opportunities in investment-grade credit
Fixed Income Strategist Amar Reganti and Investment Specialist Geoff Austein-Miller highlight some relatively simple, straightforward ways to implement a positive view on high-quality corporate credit.
In a new era for interest rates, can hedge funds fill the role of fixed income?
Hedge funds could be valuable building blocks for a fixed income substitute portfolio, but how should the portfolio be constructed? Members of our Fundamental Factor Team share their views.
Why Europe could surprise in 2023
Eoin O’Callaghan and John Butler discuss the contrasting prospects of the Euro Area and the UK and why 2023 could bring positive surprises in the region.
Geopolitical outlook: Shifting policies, structural advantages?
Geopolitical Strategist Thomas Mucha and Macro Strategist Santiago Millán look at five geopolitical themes they believe investors should watch in 2023.
2023: The year of disinflation for the US economy
In the coming year, US Macro Strategist Juhi Dhawan expects to see inflation begin to decline, the economy adjust to higher interest rates, and labor markets feel the pain of restrictive Fed policy.
Pivot points: Five portfolio positioning ideas for the new market regime
Multi-Asset Strategist Adam Berger looks at five ways in which the world may be very different in the coming decade and how they could influence the next wave of investment winners.
Emerging markets debt outlook: A glass half full or half empty?
Against a still-challenging global backdrop for emerging markets, Macro Strategist Gillian Edgeworth highlights opportunities created by extreme credit spread dispersion across individual countries.
Three tailwinds that could power CLO equity in 2023 and beyond
Three members of our fixed income team argue that the headwinds currently facing CLO equity should give way to improved returns in 2023 and beyond.
November FOMC meeting: How slow can the Fed go?
Investment Specialist Caroline Casavant shares her takeaways from the November FOMC meeting, including thoughts on the likely pace of further Fed interest-rate hikes.
Bank of Japan policy shift: Waiting for the other shoe to drop?
Client Portfolio Manager Jitu Naidu and Investment Director Masahiko Loo share their take on the consensus view that Japan has reached several key inflection points.
Can agency MBS bounce back from dismal performance?
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brian Conroy and two colleagues weigh in on the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market in the wake of a very challenging month.
Equity market volatility is perking up: Why now?
The recent uptick in equity volatility may be about looming macro and systemic risks in today's uncertain environment. Director of Global Derivatives Gordy Lawrence explains.
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his latest thoughts on Fed policy following the central bank's recent Jackson Hole meeting.
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