Important implications for monetary policy
This structural growth momentum coincides with still extraordinarily loose fiscal policy and growing public debt levels across much of the developed world. And while central banks have started an easing cycle to support economic growth, inflation remains in many cases above their target and is likely to pick up again. I therefore believe that the yield curve will eventually steepen and that rates will remain at higher levels than markets currently price in as a combination of stubborn inflation and the need for additional government deficit funding will curtail the ability of the Federal Reserve and other developed central banks to cut rates. The eventual adjustment to this reality of what our macro strategists call “the new economic era” — with higher and more volatile inflation and shorter and more pronounced economic cycles — will inevitably entail more volatility.
Portfolio positioning for this new reality
How can investors position for the significant risks and opportunities this new environment brings? There is clearly no uniform answer but one potentially attractive avenue, in my opinion, is to adopt a total return approach that enables dynamic pivots across a wide opportunity set.
Specifically, at this unpredictable stage of the cycle, I think such an approach allows investors to:
- Avoid taking on excessive credit or duration risk while still achieving attractive yields, by taking positions at the shorter end of the curve and away from those segments of the credit market where I think spreads have become exceedingly tight.
- Avoid having to make an “all-or-nothing” call on whether we will see a continuation of growth surprises or move into recession.
- Lean into either scenario. While I am bullish that the growth scenario will prevail, I think such a positioning also offers investors the potential to take advantage of the associated volatility when other market participants may be forced sellers. Such flexibility could be particularly advantageous if we are truly entering a new era of industrialization with the US as its epicenter.