May 2024

Wellington Private Investing Quarterly Update

In this edition of Wellington’s Private Investing Quarterly Update, we share updates from across our private investing platform, the latest commentary on the AI retail revolution, new team members, and more.

The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only. All investing involves risk. Please refer to risks at the end.

The AI retail revolution is already here 

We believe artificial intelligence and machine learning are set to transform commerce, ultimately leading to hyper-personalised consumer experiences. The next technology wave will likely push the consumption ecosystem beyond its current state, with the ability to leverage the oceans of data that already capture a customer’s browsing history, “dwell time” on specific products and digital footprints on social media, to infer that same person’s emotions, opinions, viewing environment and even metabolic data. In addition to helping consumers identify and purchase existing products that are perfect for them, AI will likely be able to facilitate mass markets for bespoke products produced at scale.

Why it matters   

To attract capital, private consumer-focused companies will likely need to embrace the shift towards hyper-personalisation and explore AI tools that:

  • Create efficiencies   
  • Manage inventory and logistics 
  • Interpret customer data   
  • Optimise returns and conversion rates 
  • Lower costs and build customer loyalty 
  • Simulate real-world experiences   
  • Provide “social proof points”   
  • Accelerate content creation

Dig deeper into the insights on this fascinating topic from our early-stage venture capital team in their recent article: “Hyper-personalization and the AI-driven commerce revolution.”

Information

SECTOR TRENDS

While overall deal activity in 2023 remained down from the highs of 2021, the market began to pick back up in Q4, and we believe the pieces are finally in place for a robust 2024. The late-stage growth team’s activity reached new highs during the year as we met with 770 private companies, a 23% year-over-year increase, and our highest annual activity to date. This translated into six new investments, which represent a 0.78% hit rate. The 764 companies we met with, but did not invest in, continue to be opportunities for us in 2024 and beyond.

We are optimistic that the biotech market will continue to recover, supported by an advancing macroeconomic environment, continued M&A activity, and improved fundamentals for the sector. Positive signals underpinning our optimism began to flash in 2023 and we believe the momentum will continue to accelerate this year. These signals include:

  • Historically high levels of innovation and productivity 
  • Robust M&A activity, which hit record levels last year
  • Willingness of public investors to fund companies advancing their programs, as reflected by healthy deal activity
  • Ability of private companies with high-quality derisked assets to successfully access the public market, despite an otherwise muted IPO environment

Source: US Food and Drug Administration

Amidst the substantial capital raised from General Partners in 2021 and 2022, the valuations of Climate Tech took longer to adjust to new market conditions. After several bridge financing and flat extension rounds, we are now witnessing a shift: Founders are increasingly open to raising funds at the current market conditions. This shift has led to a surge in deal activity during the first quarter of this year, both in terms of capital deployed and deal count. Two areas in the space have brought special attention: energy transition and artificial intelligence. These technologies are not only pivotal for the digitized economy but also play a crucial role in various climate solutions, including electrification.

Source: CTVC

We believe start-ups will continue to prioritize profitability but with a more balanced approach that focuses on sustainable growth, recognizing the importance of long-term viability in attracting investors. Start-ups are being affected by the struggle to fundraise by VCs, the backers of the start-up community. According to PitchBook data, in Q1, US VC funds raised only US$9.3 billion. At this pace, VC fundraising will end 2024 just above US$37 billion, the lowest capital raised since 2013 and a 54% decline from last year. Start-ups hoping that the fundraising slowdown experienced in 2023 will change due to the gradual opening of the IPO window and the prospect of future interest-rate cuts must be prepared for the fact that their primary backers are struggling themselves to attract new capital from their own limited partners.

While the bulk of the private placement market continues to be dominated by longer-dated paper, we also continue to see an increase in shorter-term maturities. Additionally, investors have started to demand increasing spread premiums for private placement deals that reflect the higher-rate environment and recent demand dynamics. We continue to believe that historical spread premia expectations will continue to adjust higher to reflect the current market conditions. 

New team member

jeff-chapman-6768
Head of Growth Lending
Jeff leads the firm’s private credit investment activity in growth lending, working with portfolio managers, venture capital investors, global credit analysts, and other global research resources within the firm to identify and pursue investments. As the growth lending effort continues to grow, he is responsible for building the team, developing investment talent, and further integrating Wellington’s research capabilities into this emerging business.
San Francisco

Portfolio Company Support:

  • The Impact Measurement & Management (IMM) Team works with portfolio companies to provide feedback and guidance on best practices for impact calculations and sustainability reporting. In Q1 we helped to design a customer survey for a potential portfolio company that provided useful insights into the customer experience as well as data that helps to support the climate impact case.
  • Over the past quarter, we helped provide IPO readiness guidance to several portfolio companies, including conducting executive compensation benchmarking analyses and helping advance searches for independent board director candidates. In March, we highlighted the SEC’s climate disclosure rule and offered to run complimentary carbon footprint estimates to assist companies in preparing to comply with evolving regulatory requirements. 

News

news-wellington-an-2
Article

Wellington’s Private Investing co-heads, Michael Carmen and Shanna O’Reilly, are named to the Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Power100 Angels List

We’re proud to announce that on the heels of our Wellington Access Ventures (WAV) team’s recognition on the Diversity, Equity & Inclusive Capitalism (DEIC) Power100 Asset Management list, our Private Investing co-heads, Michael Carmen and Shanna O’Reilly, have been chosen for the DEIC Power100 Angels list. The Angels list recognizes trailblazers across the asset management industry who are helping to move toward a more inclusive future. Michael and Shanna are committed to promoting change in venture capital and their work has been recognized for effecting positive change.

Wellington Management did not pay a fee to be considered for this award. Winners were selected by Blueprint Capital Advisors. This award was announced on 25 February 2024. Wellington Management was one of 100 winners in the Angels category, and the selection methodology included a collective consensus based on a broad cross-section of industry participants. The award may not be representative of any one client’s experience. The award is not indicative of Wellington Management’s future performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

WAV-team_316x316
Article

Wellington Access Ventures is named on the Diversity, Equity and Inclusive Capitalism Power100 List

We’re excited to announce that Wellington Access Ventures, and our deal team leads, Jackson Cummings, Frederik Groce, Sasha McKenzie, and Van Jones, have been selected as part of Blueprint Capital Advisor’s Diversity, Equity and Inclusive Capitalism Power100 List. This first-of-its-kind acknowledgement recognizes people and organizations that are leading by example, breaking color and gender barriers, supporting diverse firms, and promoting a more inclusive investment management industry. It is an honor to be included on this list that supports our mission of investing in underrepresented founders has only just begun.

Wellington Management did not pay a fee to be considered for this award. Winners were selected by Blueprint Capital Advisor’s. This award was announced on February 25, 2024 . Wellington Management was one of 100 winners in the Asset Manager category, and the selection methodology included a collective consensus based on a broad cross section of industry participants. The award may not be representative of any one client’s experience. The award is not indicative of Wellington Management’s future performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Featured Insight

Showing of Insights Posts
1215126758
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Hyper-personalization and the AI-driven commerce revolution

A member of our early-stage venture team explores the many ways in which artificial intelligence is likely to transform the consumer experience.

Continue reading
event
Article
2025-03-31
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.

Private Investing Insights

Did you miss last quarter’s newsletter?

Investment risks
Major risks

Market risks: Directional; not market neutral. Primarily invests in equity. Will experience equity-like volatility at times. At times, markets experience great volatility and unpredictability. | Broad investment flexibility: No benchmark orientation; few investment restrictions. Geographic, sector, market-cap, and asset-class emphases may shift over time. | Liquidity risk: Portfolio of illiquid/private companies.The return of invested capital to limited partners may be dependent on the success of the companies held in the portfolio, and the timing of such liquidity is uncertain. | Sector risk: May concentrate by sector; potential for lack of diversification. | Country/currency risk May concentrate by country. | Transparency risk: Holdings, pricing, and other data may be limited and thus less transparent than certain other investments. | Regulatory risk: Not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds or many other pooled investments.

Early-stage venture risks
Concentration risk: In general, investing in strategies with concentrated exposures to (i) particular asset class(es), and/or (ii) a particular sector, and/or (iii) one or a select few markets involves greater risk than investing in strategies that have greater diversification.| Risk of underlying assets: In general, each strategy will be subject to the same risk factors as those relating to the underlying securities or assets held in its portfolio. | Extended term and liquidation: The total hold period for an investment in the strategy will be much longer as compared to that of other investment products. The strategy’s term may extend for ten (10) years from the final closing date, with the possibility of five (5) or more years of extensions, followed by an indefinite liquidation period. This risk is increased by expected significant follow-on investment activity later in the strategy’s term and investments in underlying funds that will also have indefinite liquidation periods. Costs and expenses incurred by the strategy in connection with an extended term and liquidation period are expected to be significant.| Layered fees: The strategy has a layered fee and expense structure that makes total costs and expenses higher relative to other investment products. Loss of key personnel | The performance of an underlying fund is largely dependent on the skill and decisions made by its manager and key personnel, and the loss of any such individual could have a material adverse effect on the performance of the strategy. | Change in investment policy: The manager of an underlying fund typically has the authority to alter its investment policy within certain parameters (set out in its constitutional document) by amending the fund’s prospectus. This could represent a fairly significant change in the nature and risk profile of the strategy from the one in which you originally invested. | Summary of some of the major risks.

Investment Grade Private Placement Investment risks
CONCENTRATION RISK
: Concentration risk is the risk of amplified losses that may occur from having a large percentage of your investments in a particular security, issuer, industry, or country. The investments may move in the same direction in reaction to the conditions of the industries, sectors, countries and regions of investment, and a single security or issuer could have a significant impact on the portfolio’s risk and returns. | CREDIT RISK: The value of a fixed income security may decline due to an increased risk that the issuer or guarantor of that security may fail to pay interest or principal when due, as a result of adverse changes to the issuer’s or guarantor’s financial status and/or business. In general, lower-rated securities carry a greater degree of credit risk than higher-rated securities. | FIXED INCOME SECURITIES RISK: Fixed income security market values are subject to many factors, including economic conditions, government regulations, market sentiment, and local and international political events. In addition, the market value of fixed income securities will fluctuate in response to changes in interest rates, and the creditworthiness of the issuer. | INTEREST RATE RISK: Generally, the value of fixed income securities will change inversely with changes in interest rates, all else equal. The risk that changes in active interest rates will adversely affect fixed income investments will be greater for longer-term fixed income securities than for shorter-term fixed income securities. | LIQUIDITY RISK: Investments with low liquidity may experience market value volatility because they are thinly traded (such as small cap and private equity or private placement bonds). Since there is no guarantee that these securities could be sold at fair value, sales may occur at a discount. In the event of a full liquidation, these securities may need to be held after liquidation date. | RESTRICTED SECURITY RISK: Restricted securities are securities acquired in unregistered, private sales from the issuing company or from an affiliate of the issuer. These securities may not be transferable until certain criteria are met and under the federal securities laws, generally may be resold only to qualified institutional buyers, resulting in liquidity risk.

Important disclosures
For professional, institutional, or qualified investors only. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. There can be no assurance the strategies will achieve their investment objectives or avoid significant losses. Any securities mentioned are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be an investment recommendation. There can be no guarantee an investment in any portfolio company will be profitable or avoid losses. For a complete list of the private equity investments please see https://www.wellington.com/en-us/institutional/capabilities/private-equity.

Wellington Management Company LLP (WMC) is an independently owned investment adviser registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). WMC is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a commodity trading advisor (CTA) and serves as a CTA to certain clients including commodity pools operated by registered commodity pool operators. WMC provides commodity trading advice to all other clients in reliance on exemptions from CTA registration. WMC, along with its affiliates (collectively, Wellington Management), provides investment management and investment advisory services to institutions around the world. Wellington Management Group LLP (WMG), a Massachusetts limited liability partnership, serves as the ultimate parent holding company of the Wellington Management global organization. All of the partners are full-time professional members of Wellington Management. Located in Boston, Massachusetts, Wellington Management also has offices in Chicago, Illinois; New York, New York; Radnor, Pennsylvania; San Francisco, California; DIFC, Dubai; Frankfurt; Hong Kong; London; Luxembourg; Madrid; Milan; Shanghai; Singapore; Sydney; Tokyo; Toronto; and Zurich.

This material is prepared for, and authorised for internal use by, designated institutional and professional investors and their consultants or for such other use as may be authorised by Wellington Management. This material and/or its contents are current at the time of writing and may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the express written consent of Wellington Management. This material is not intended to constitute investment advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase shares or other securities. Investors should always obtain and read an up-to-date investment services description or prospectus before deciding whether to appoint an investment manager or to invest in a fund. Any views expressed herein are those of the author(s), are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may make different investment decisions for different clients. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. Forward-looking statements should not be considered as guarantees or predictions of future events. Past results are not a reliable indicator of future results. Wellington assumes no duty to update any information in this material in the event that such information changes.

In Canada, this material is provided by Wellington Management Canada ULC, a British Columbia unlimited liability company registered in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, and Saskatchewan in the categories of Portfolio Manager and Exempt Market Dealer.

In Europe (excluding the United Kingdom and Switzerland), this material is provided by the marketing entity Wellington Management Europe GmbH (WME), which is authorised and regulated by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht – BaFin). This material may only be used in countries where WME is duly authorised to operate and is only directed at eligible counterparties or professional clients as defined under the German Securities Trading Act. This material does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation to invest in financial instruments or information recommending or suggesting an investment strategy within the meaning of Section 85 of the German Securities Trading Act (Wertpapierhandelsgesetz).

In the United Kingdom, this material is provided by Wellington Management International Limited (WMIL), a firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK (Reference number: 208573). This material is directed only at eligible counterparties or professional clients as defined under the rules of the FCA.

In Switzerland, this material is provided by Wellington Management Switzerland GmbH, a firm registered at the commercial register of the canton of Zurich with number CH-020.4.050.857-7. This material is directed only at Qualified Investors as defined in the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act and its implementing ordinance.

In Dubai, this material is provided by Wellington Management (DIFC) Limited (WM DIFC), a firm registered in the DIFC with number 7181 and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (“DFSA”). To the extent this document relates to a financial product, such financial product is not subject to any form of regulation or approval by the DFSA. The DFSA has no responsibility for reviewing or verifying any prospectus or other documents in connection with any financial product to which this document may relate. The DFSA has not approved this document or any other associated documents nor taken any steps to verify the information set out in this document and has no responsibility for it. Any financial product to which this document relates may be illiquid and/or subject to restrictions on its resale. Prospective purchasers should conduct their own due diligence on any such financial product. If you do not understand the contents of this document you should consult an authorised financial adviser. This document is provided on the basis that you are a Professional Client and that you will not copy, distribute or otherwise make this material available to any person.

In Hong Kong, this material is provided to you by Wellington Management Hong Kong Limited (WM Hong Kong), a corporation licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission to conduct Type 1 (dealing in securities), Type 2 (dealing in futures contracts), Type 4 (advising on securities), and Type 9 (asset management) regulated activities. By accepting this material you acknowledge and agree that this material is provided for your use only and that you will not distribute or otherwise make this material available to any person.

Wellington Private Fund Management (Shanghai) Limited (WPFM), which is an unregulated entity incorporated in China, is a wholly owned subsidiary of WM Hong Kong. Wellington Global Private Fund Management (Shanghai) Limited (WGPFM) is a wholly owned entity and subsidiary of WPFM and is registered as a private fund manager with Asset Management Association of China to conduct qualified domestic limited partnership and management activities. In mainland China, this material is provided for your use by WPFM, WGPFM, or WMHK (as the case may be).

In Singapore, this material is provided for your use only by Wellington Management Singapore Pte Ltd (WM Singapore) (Registration Number 201415544E). WM Singapore is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under a Capital Markets Services Licence to conduct fund management activities and deal in capital markets products, and is an exempt financial adviser. By accepting this material you represent that you are a non-retail investor and that you will not copy, distribute or otherwise make this material available to any person.

In Australia, Wellington Management Australia Pty Ltd (WM Australia) (ABN 19 167 091 090) has authorised the issue of this material for use solely by wholesale clients (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001). By accepting this material, you acknowledge and agree that this material is provided for your use only and that you will not distribute or otherwise make this material available to any person.

In Japan, Wellington Management Japan Pte Ltd (WM Japan) (Registration Number 199504987R) has been registered as a Financial Instruments Firm with registered number: Director General of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kin-Sho) Number 428. WM Japan is a member of the Japan Investment Advisers Association (JIAA), the Investment Trusts Association, Japan (ITA) and the Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association (T2FIFA).

As of 15 December 2023, WMIL, WM Hong Kong, WM Japan and WM Singapore are also registered as investment advisers with the SEC; however, they will comply with the substantive provisions of the US Investment Advisers Act only with respect to their US clients.

©2024 Wellington Management Company LLP. All rights reserved.