- Director of Multi-Asset Research
Asset classes
Singapore, Individual
Change
The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.
Our quarterly survey of Wellington investors often pinpoints where the firm’s views differ from consensus and can also reveal important shifts in our investors’ collective thinking. In the latest survey, carried out on February 20 – 24, before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, participants were asked how bullish they were and how bullish they think consensus sentiment was towards risk assets.
The results reveal that our investors viewed market sentiment as the most bullish since January 2022. Wellington sentiment, however, was more cautious, with a majority of respondents thinking that inflation consensus is wrong and, by implication, that a soft-landing scenario, in which the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is able to engineer a return to target inflation without derailing the economy, is unlikely to occur. These more bearish investors fell into two camps: an “inflation will run too cool” camp, which reflects the view that the Fed has been engaging in one of the largest and fastest tightening cycles in history, and an “inflation will run too hot” camp, which reflects a belief that the Fed has not done enough to tame structurally higher inflation.
Figure 1
Elsewhere in the survey, the view that inflation and growth patterns are likely to be structurally different may explain why our survey participants expect Japanese bond yields to exceed consensus expectations. Participants’ much higher conviction in emerging market equities is a noteworthy change, with a majority expecting them to outperform US equities (S&P 500 Index) in US-dollar terms. Wellington investors were also significantly more bullish on Chinese high-yield credit on the back of China’s reopening.
Superforecasting in practice
We have been running our recurring macro survey for the last seven years and, reassuringly, the collective wisdom of Wellington captured by this survey has achieved a good hit rate to date for its forecasts as well as respectable Brier scores, which measure the accuracy of probabilistic predictions.
The idea for the survey originated from a conversation three of our macro thinkers had over six years ago about Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner’s book Superforecasting. Tetlock and Gardner argue that forecasting is a skill that can be improved, and we thought their theory could work well in practice at Wellington, given the firm’s collaborative culture. The hope was to sharpen our collective and individual forecasting skills, enhance our internal investment dialogue, reveal where our views differ from the market consensus and identify how they change over time. The resulting internal survey gathers the anonymous responses of macro-minded investors across all disciplines, asset classes and office locations. The formulation of the questions is important. Wherever possible, our questions aim to be precise, time-bound, measurable, probabilistic and rollable from one quarter to the next so as to give us a richer data set over time. As exemplified by this quarter’s survey results about risk sentiment, the results can pinpoint where the firm’s views differ from the consensus and can also reveal important shifts in our collective thinking.
Experts
- Macro Strategist
Related insights
Showing
of
Insights Posts
URL References
Related Insights
Read next
Showing
of
Insights Posts
New era demands a nimble approach to credit
Our expert explains why deep research and an active approach are effective ways for fixed income investors to uncover credit opportunities in today's market.
5
min
Article
2025-05-31
Fork in the road: Slowdown or reacceleration ahead?
Markets seem to expect a much smoother ride in 2024, but are they too optimistic? Members of our Investment Strategy & Solutions Group offer their macro and market outlook, including their latest views on equities, bonds, and commodities.
Article
2026-01-31
Credit: Better opportunities to add risk on the horizon
ur experts review current macro dynamics impacting the bond market and discuss where they see opportunities and risks across credit sectors.
Article
2024-12-31
Why cash won’t cut it for long: The case for bonds
Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson and Investment Strategy Analyst Patrick Wattiau explore the relative potential benefits of bonds versus cash.
Quick Take
2024-08-31
Credit market outlook: Expect greater opportunities in back half of 2023
Against a backdrop of elevated recession risks and banking-sector stress, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Rob Burn identifies relative-value sector opportunities in the credit market.
Article
2024-06-30
Three macro assumptions that could be just plain wrong
Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Brij Khurana offers his non-consensus take on three entrenched, but potentially flawed, beliefs in today's market environment.
Quick Take
2024-04-30
Understanding the US banking sector shake-up
Investment Communications Managers Jitu Naidu and Adam Norman detail recent US bank failures and analyze the implications. (Published 15 March 2023)
Quick Take
2024-03-31
On to the next crisis: Glimpsing a post-SVB world
Amid the turmoil in the US banking sector, Global Investment Strategist Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson suggests investors consider pivoting to a “risk-management mode” that favors higher-quality assets. (Published 14 March 2023)
Quick Take
2024-03-31
Decoding the effects of deglobalization
Nicholas Petrucelli outlines the economic, political, and geopolitical underpinnings of deglobalization. He also demonstrates the impact this trend has today and analyzes the investment implications.
Quick Take
2024-03-31
US recession risk: No longer if, but when and how bad
Portfolio Managers Brij Khurana, Brian Garvey, and Nick Petrucelli believe many observers are underestimating the severity of a potential US recession this year.
Quick Take
2024-01-31
China’s economy: Poised to exceed expectations in 2023
With the bar set so low for China's economy, Macro Strategist Santiago Millan thinks it won't take much for an upside surprise in 2023.
Article
2023-12-31
URL References
Related Insights
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results and an investment can lose value. Funds returns are shown net of fees. Source: Wellington Management
© 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. The Overall Morningstar Rating for a fund is derived from a weighted average of the three, five, and ten year (if applicable) ratings, based on risk-adjusted return. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The content within this page is issued by Wellington Management Singapore Pte Ltd (UEN: 201415544E) (WMS). This advertisement or publication has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Information contained on this website is provided for information purposes and does not constitute financial advice or recommendation in any security including but not limited to, share in the funds and is prepared without regard to the specific objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person.
Investment in the funds described on this website carries a substantial degree of risk and places an investor’s capital at risk. The price and value of investments is not guaranteed. The value of the shares of the funds and the income accruing to them, if any, and may fall or rise. An investor may not get back the original amount invested and an investor may lose all of their investment. Investment in the funds described on this website is not suitable for all investors. Investors should read the prospectus and the Product Highlights Sheet of the respective fund and seek financial advice before deciding whether to purchase shares in any fund. Past performance or any economic trends or forecast, are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Some of the funds described on this website may use or invest in financial derivative instruments for portfolio management and hedging purposes. Investments in the funds are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested. None of the funds listed on this website guarantees distributions and distributions may fluctuate and may be paid out of capital. Past distributions are not necessarily indicative of future trends, which may be lower. Please note that payment of distributions out of capital effectively amounts to a return or withdrawal of the principal amount invested or of net capital gains attributable to that principal amount. Actual distribution of income, net capital gains and/or capital will be at the manager’s absolute discretion. Payments on dividends may result in a reduction of NAV per share of the funds. The preceding paragraph is only applicable if the fund intends to pay dividends/ distributions. Performance with preliminary charge (sales charge) is calculated on a NAV to NAV basis, net of 5% preliminary charge (initial sales charge). Unless stated otherwise data is as at previous month end.
Subscriptions may only be made on the basis of the latest prospectus and Product Highlights Sheet, and they can be obtained from WMS or fund distributors upon request.
This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express written consent of Wellington Management.
