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Macro and market Geopolitics Tactical allocation Content CoE Program Global Program iStrat Multi-asset Wellington on Washington and the World Article

The US equity rotation: Where have all the good vibes gone?

Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, Global Investment and Multi-Asset Strategist
March 2025
4 min read
2026-03-31
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.

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After riding into 2025 on a wave of election euphoria following Donald Trump’s win, the US stock market has struggled to find its footing so far this year. US yields have fallen, the US dollar has weakened, and there have been signs of a shift in market leadership. It’s a good time to review what’s changed and what it might mean for investors.

In my view, three things have changed since the election:

US politics — We are seeing a different President Trump in his second term. The general assumption at the beginning of the year was that he would talk big but act in a more measured way. Tariffs, federal employee firings, and DOGE cost cutting all point to Trump’s confidence that he has a mandate to take a more radical approach now, while more market-friendly policies, such as deregulation and tax cuts, may come later.

The US economy — There are early indications the economy is softening. Consumer sentiment has taken a hit on the employment and inflationary fronts, hinting at a less favorable growth/inflation backdrop. First-quarter forecasts for real GDP growth are being revised from positive to negative and the US 10-year Treasury is now below 4.25%. Hard data on employment, housing, and inflation will be important to track, to determine the significance of the January decline in retail sales data — the largest such slip in nearly two years.

Artificial intelligence — The megacap tech companies are still exceptional, but there has been more differentiation in their performance recently. Since DeepSeek disrupted the market in January, these companies have faced a growing number of questions about their $50 billion-plus in annual capital expenditures. If competitors can perform the same functions comparably and more cheaply, will that capex generate a sufficient return on investment?

One thing that hasn’t changed is the Federal Reserve’s reaction function. Sticky inflation turned the narrative early in the year to a more hawkish Fed with rate cuts this year almost completely priced out of the market. Today, about three cuts are priced in — a response to weaker sentiment and consumer spending. If inflation declines toward the Fed’s target of 2%, I expect policymakers to meet the market’s expectation of more cuts. Also, US equities are still expensive relative to other regions, at 22 times 12-month forward earnings.

How has the stock market responded?

Several market developments are top of mind:

Rotation of a different sort — The rotation within and beyond the US has been in full swing, with value outperforming growth and regional outperformance outside the US. However, this rotation has been somewhat unusual, given that small-cap stocks have not benefited while defensive sectors, such as health care and consumer staples, have. I suspect that allocators are justifiably building some defensive exposure into their portfolios with sectors and duration. 

Companies feeling the effects of tariff plans — Tariffs are a negative for US growth and inflation. Many US industries rely on goods from the nation’s largest trading partners, and currency depreciation, which would offset higher prices for US consumers and manufacturers, will not work if countries retaliate with their own tariffs on US goods.

Europe’s gains — Europe’s recent outperformance has been driven by extreme negative sentiment, cheap valuations, hopes of an end to the Ukraine/Russia war, and some encouraging signs of the potential for more fiscal spending. With the ceasefire now less certain and signs that Russia could get more concessions than Ukraine, I do not expect the European rally to last long given higher valuations driven by multiples rather than earnings.

China’s comeback — Another “cheap” equity market, China is enjoying a resurgence as the property market slump shows signs of stabilizing, President Xi Jinping’s stance toward technology companies has become more supportive, and more fiscal stimulus could be coming in the face of higher US tariffs. 

Investment implications

Focus on diversification — The European rally may have further to go in the short term, but I think a lot has been priced in as valuations have risen over the past two months. Still, it’s a good reminder not to stray too far from a diversified portfolio with both US and international exposures. Diversification may also help tamp down volatility in a politically uncertain environment.

Reassess fixed income exposure — The recent rally in the 10-year US Treasury is a good reminder that bonds can play a unique role in portfolios, potentially offsetting any equity underperformance. Gold could be another portfolio “enhancer” in this environment. 

Investigate sector and regional opportunities — With the rerating of many European sectors, including financials, industrials and health care, it may be time to look at US sectors that have lagged, such as IT, communication services, and consumer discretionary. In addition, Japan has structural positives that the market has underappreciated recently amid concerns about interest-rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

Avoid writing off emerging markets — If the US dollar continues to weaken, emerging market currencies and equities may be primed for upside, especially with the rally in China providing a better backdrop for EM performance.

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    • to penetrate Wellington Management’s security measures or other entities’' systems (“hacking”);
    • to transmit unsolicited voluminous emails (for example, spamming) or to intercept, interfere with or redirect email intended for others using this Website; 
    • to generate excessive amounts of internet traffic, to interfere with Wellington Management’s network or other’s use of this Website or to engage in activities designed to, or having the effect of, degrading or denying service to other users of this Website or others;
    • to introduce viruses, worms, harmful code and/or Trojan horses onto the internet or into this Website or any other entity’s systems and it is your responsibility to ensure that whatever you download or select for your use from this Website is free from such items;
    • to post or transmit information that is defamatory, fraudulent or deceptive including, but not limited to, scams such as “make-money-fast” schemes or “pyramid/chain” letters; and/or 
    • to transmit confidential or proprietary information, except solely at your own risk. 

  20. Linked Websites:  Links to websites operated by third parties are provided for information only and do not constitute any form of advice, endorsement or recommendation of such websites or the material on them.  Wellington Management accepts no responsibility for information contained on any other sites which can be accessed by hypertext link from this Website or for these sites not being available at all times.  Wellington Management has not reviewed, and will not review or update, such websites or information and any use that you make of such websites and information is at your own risk.  Please note that when you click on any external site hypertext link you will leave this Website. You should review the privacy statements of such websites before you provide any personal or confidential information.

  21. Website Security and Restrictions on Use: As a condition to your use of this Website, you agree that you will not, and you will not take any action intended to:  (i) access data that is not intended for you; (ii) invade the privacy of, obtain the identity of, or obtain any personal information about any other user of this Website; (iii) probe, scan, or test the vulnerability of this Website or Wellington Management’s network or breach security or authentication measures without proper authorisation; (iv) attempt to interfere with service to any user, host, or network or otherwise attempt to disrupt our business; or (v) send unsolicited mail, including promotions and/or advertising of products and services. Unauthorised use of the Website, including but not limited to unauthorised entry into Wellington Management’s systems or misuse of any information posted to a web site, is strictly prohibited. 

  22. Amendment:  Wellington Management may delete or make changes to these Terms and to the information contained on this Website at any time. Where such amendments are made, you will be required to accept any such changes in order to continue to use the Website.  If you do not accept such revised Terms, you may no longer be able to access this Website..
    If any provision of these Terms is found by any court or authority of competent jurisdiction to be illegal, void or invalid under the laws of any jurisdiction, the legality, validity or enforceability of the remainder of these Terms in that jurisdiction shall not be affected and the legality, validity and enforceability of the whole of these Terms in any other jurisdiction shall not be affected.

  23. Third Parties:  The Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and its affiliates shall have the benefit of the rights conferred on them by these Terms but otherwise no person who is not a party to these Terms may enforce its terms whether under the Contracts (Rights of Third Parties) Act (, Chapter 53B of Singapore) or otherwise.

  24. Applicable Law:  These Terms and any non-contractual obligations arising from or connected with them shall be governed by, and these Terms shall be construed in accordance with, the laws of Singapore. 

  25. Jurisdiction:  You agree that the Singapore courts shall have exclusive jurisdiction in relation to any legal action or proceedings arising out of or in connection with these Terms (whether arising out of or in connection with contractual or non-contractual obligations) (“Proceedings”) and waive any objection to Proceedings in such courts on the grounds of venue or on the grounds that Proceedings have been brought in an inappropriate forum.  You further agree that this paragraph operates for the benefit of the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management and accordingly the Umbrella Funds, Funds, Wellington Management shall be entitled to take Proceedings in any other court or courts having jurisdiction.

  26. About Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd.:  Wellington Management Singapore Pte. Ltd. (UEN: 201415544E)  is incorporated in Singapore and is regulated as a capital markets services license holder for fund management by the MAS.  Wellington Management’s principal place of business is at 8 Marina Boulevard, Tower 1, #03-01 Marina Bay Financial Centre, Singapore 018981. It is a member of the Investment Management Association of Singapore.

  27. Contact us: If you have any enquiries in relation to our data protection policies and procedures, this Website or the information on it, please contact Wellington Management at #GRG-SingaporeClientTeam@wellington.com.

Effective as of 30th September 2021

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