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Bonds in Brief: Making Sense of the Macro — March issue

Marco Giordano, Investment Director
April 2025
4 min read
2026-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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The views expressed are those of the author at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.

Welcome to the March edition of Bonds in Brief, our monthly assessment of risks and opportunities within bond markets for fixed income investors. Each month, we explore material macro changes and how best to navigate the latest risks and opportunities we see within bond markets. 

Key points

  • Fixed income markets had a challenging March as government bond yields ended mixed and credit spreads widened. Overall lower government bond yields reflected the headwinds facing the global economy’s growth outlook.
  • On 2 April, US President Donald Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the US and additional reciprocal tariffs on approximately 60 countries or trading blocs that have a high trade deficit with the US. Fixed income markets rallied amid a broadening risk-off move, with yields falling across major economies. In the short and medium term, the tariffs increase the probability of a much more sustained rise in inflation levels and volatility as well as the probability of a recession.
  • Consumer spending has been resilient throughout much of the developed world, but the latest surveys on consumer confidence point to a slowdown. Increased anxiety and uncertainty about tariffs might lead consumers and businesses to tighten their purse strings and increase cautionary savings/delay capex spending, which could quickly translate into deteriorating hard data, particularly if financial conditions tighten. 

What are we watching?

  • Capital flight. We expect the US tariff announcement to accelerate net capital outflows from US financial assets into global fixed income, which should imply much higher risk premia and higher long-term bond yields for the US. In the rest of the world, this could be a strong technical factor to support non-US financial assets, with European, Japanese and Chinese fixed income in particular potentially benefiting from US outflows.
  • The effectiveness of monetary policy. It will now be harder for the Fed to cut interest rates pre-emptively as inflation remains stubbornly above target, even before the tariff impact. If rates are cut and US domestic demand improves in response, it will likely widen the trade deficit and mean tariffs stay potentially higher. If the objective of tariffs is to remove bilateral trade deficits, this would act as a countercyclical policy in the US, undoing the impact of lower rates on raising demand. Other global central banks could face a similar challenge as policymakers start to implement direct responses or negotiate with the US administration.
  • Credit markets. Investment-grade and high-yield markets saw widening spreads in March, and sold off further after April’s tariff announcement, with a more negative skew in the US than Europe. While corporate fundamentals remain solid and we do not believe a full-scale default cycle is on the horizon, the significant market moves open up opportunities and risks for investors. Specifically, in the US, we have seen retail names’ valuations fall, while in Europe, materials and auto/auto parts manufacturers have borne the brunt of investors’ concerns. Heightened volatility and uncertainty could continue to lead to wider credit spreads and increased dispersion, which may create attractive opportunities to purchase high-quality companies at a discount.
  • Inflation. Market moves over the last month have been dictated by concerns about the extent to which tariffs will hurt economic growth. While markets have seemingly only been able to concentrate on either growth or inflation, there is growing concern about the potential for stagflation — US tariffs and retaliatory measures are likely to hit growth globally and inflation is also likely to accelerate in the near term, challenging policymakers’ ability to continue their easing trajectory.

Where are the opportunities? 

  • The risks of a recession have increased yet tariffs are also likely to add to the current inflationary impulse. Given these dual risks, our key conviction remains a focus on higher-quality total return strategies that are less constrained by benchmarks. This could include global sovereign and currency strategies that have the potential to shine during these periods or unconstrained strategies that are able to navigate the late cycle by allocating across different sectors. These strategies could also enable investors to allocate capital away from cash and reduce reinvestment risk without taking on significant duration or credit risk. 
  • In an increasingly volatile and uncertain market environment, we see core fixed income, whether aggregate or credit strategies, as increasingly attractive from both an income and capital protection perspective. All-in yields remain attractive for investors looking to derisk within a broadly diversified portfolio. And for European investors looking to protect themselves from ongoing volatility, high-quality income may offer an attractive avenue not just in local but also global markets.
  • We think high-yield debt still offers potential, but advocate a cautious approach given market uncertainty and the normalising of default rates relative to current spreads. At the same time, the robust additional income potential may make high yield a good equity substitute. For all higher-yielding credit, we believe an “up-in-quality” issuer bias is warranted.

Expert

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