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Asset Allocation Outlook

Multiple authors
April 2025
4 min read
2026-04-30
Archived info
Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.

This is a monthly snapshot of Wellington’s Investment Strategy & Solutions Group’s asset allocation views as of March 2025. It covers global equities, bonds and commodities and complements the more detailed analysis we share in our quarterly Multi-Asset Outlook.

Key*

1

*Please note that we use a more detailed key in our quarterly Multi-Asset Outlook .

Equities

Overweight: no change

US

Neutral: no change

We remain neutral on US equities. Uncertainty stemming from the reciprocal tariff announcements could put further pressure on valuations and the US equity risk premium. Emerging concerns around earnings expectations in the US, with significant uncertainty hitting consumer and corporate spending, are adding to our cautious approach. As such, despite the aggressive sell-off, we are not inclined to move to an overweight stance yet.

Europe

Neutral: no change

We maintain a neutral stance on European equities. While we recognise that there is potential for a positive regime shift driven by increased fiscal spending, we need to gain further confidence that EPS can sustain this trajectory to build conviction in a prolonged period of outperformance. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of announced reciprocal tariffs, retaliation plans from the European Union and geopolitical risks continue to represent headwinds. Therefore, we remain neutral for the time being.

Japan

Neutral: no change

We hold a neutral view on Japanese equities. Despite solid earnings growth, modest valuation and continued bottom-up progress on shareholder returns and governance, Japan has underperformed. With the Bank of Japan (BoJ) still in tightening mode, we remain patient and vigilant, looking for opportunities to re-engage.

Emerging markets

Neutral: no change

We maintain a neutral stance on emerging markets (EM) equities. The region’s relative outperformance has been primarily driven by a repricing of China, supported by a bottoming out of housing indicators and a shift in sentiment on the private sector, particularly in tech. However, our view remains neutral overall, especially considering the recent announcements on tariffs from the US administration, uncertainty around their impact as well as possible retaliation from the most heavily affected countries.

Government bonds

Neutral: down

US

Underweight: down

We have upgraded our underweight view on US rates to neutral. This shift reflects markets significantly revisiting the number of cuts priced in for the Federal Reserve by the end of the year as well as the impact of heightened volatility.

Europe

Neutral: down

We have downgraded our view on European rates to neutral. Germany’s fiscal U-turn has boosted rates, and we are closely monitoring the impact of fiscal policies and defence spending on the European economy. However, uncertainty around the impact of and possible retaliation to announced tariffs from the US continue to pose risks.

Japan

Neutral: no change

The BoJ’s normalisation cycle is expected to be prolonged and uncertainty around higher tariffs, which could significantly impact growth, makes us maintain a neutral stance for the time being.

Credit spreads

Overweight: up

Investment-grade credit

Neutral: no change

We maintain a neutral stance on investment-grade (IG) credit. Spreads have widened but we see more of an opportunity in high yield given the increase in yield and opportunities for roll-down returns. Overall, we prefer to remain neutral, reflecting a cautious approach, and suggest waiting for a more favourable entry point.

High yield

Overweight: up

We upgraded our view on high-yield credit to a modest overweight. We think it may be an opportune time to add risk in high yield, as spread widening now provides the potential for excess returns through attractive yield (carry) and roll-down returns that are sufficient to weather any further widening. With supply/demand technicals remaining supportive and given our base-case economic scenario that a global recession can still be avoided, we would advocate adding exposure at wider spreads.

Emerging markets

Neutral: no change

We maintain our neutral position on EM debt. Currently, we do not see attractive opportunities to enter, which, coupled with elevated geopolitical risks such as the political standoff in Turkey, contributes to our cautious stance.

Commodities

aa-icon-heading-neutral-nc

Energy

Neutral: no change

We continue to take a neutral stance on oil. Despite the announced production increases from OPEC+, global growth concerns may hold back demand. As such, we are comfortable with maintaining a neutral view.

Gold

Neutral: no change

We maintain a neutral stance on gold. We continue to believe there is a structural case for gold to perform well due to stagflation, geopolitical risks and central bank buying. However, given gold’s record-breaking price levels, we think it is too early to re-engage.

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These asset allocation views are produced by Wellington’s Investment Strategy & Solutions Group, which provides client-centred investment solutions, research and advice ranging from whole portfolio solutions to bespoke single asset class and advisory partnerships. Our solutions platform incorporates expertise across multi-asset, fundamental factor investing and thematic approaches to deliver a range of client outcomes and objectives. If you wish to discuss your investment challenges, and how Wellington Solutions can help, please contact your Wellington relationship manager or #solutions@wellington.com.

Disclosure

For professional and institutional investors only. All investing involves risk. Investment markets are subject to economic, regulatory, market sentiment and political risks. All investors should consider the risks that may impact their capital, before investing. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of the original investment. If the strategies do not perform as expected, if opportunities to implement them do not arise, or if the team does not implement its investment strategies successfully, then a strategy may underperform or experience losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and investments can lose value.

This material is prepared for, and authorised for internal use by, designated institutional and professional investors and their consultants or for such other use as may be authorised by Wellington Management. This material and/or its contents are current at the time of writing and may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the express written consent of Wellington Management. This material is not intended to constitute investment advice or an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to purchase shares or other securities. Investors should always obtain and read an up-to-date investment services description or prospectus before deciding whether to appoint an investment manager or to invest in a fund.

Any views expressed herein are those of the Wellington Solutions Multi-Asset Team, are based on available information and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may make different investment decisions for different clients. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed.

This material represents an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. It is not guaranteed as to accuracy, does not purport to be complete and is not intended to be used as a primary basis for investment decisions. It should also not be construed as advice meeting the particular investment needs of any investor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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