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Wiring the future: Emerging tech for the transmission-grid build-out

Greg Wasserman, CFA, Head of Private Climate Investing
Jenny Xie, Venture Associate, Private Climate Investing
February 2025
7 min read
2026-02-28
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Archived pieces remain available on the site. Please consider the publish date while reading these older pieces.
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The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only. 

Key points

  • The US electric grid faces significant challenges due to rising power demand and the limitations of existing transmission infrastructure.
  • Traditional solutions, such as new transmission line build-outs, can be complex, costly, and time-consuming.
  • Emerging grid-tech innovations, especially reconductoring with advanced conductors, are gaining adoption among some utilities and attracting policy support.
  • We believe the private-market investment opportunity for grid-tech, while nascent, may be substantial.

Like many countries, the US energy grid faces serious challenges that have become more apparent amid rapidly rising demand for power from AI data centers; the onshoring and expansion of domestic industrial production; and the electrification of residential HVAC, hot water systems, and vehicles. Amid intensifying demand growth, energy supply and existing grid capacity are becoming key limitations to economic growth. Compounding matters, physical climate-related risks such as hurricanes, wildfires, floods, and heat waves are increasingly causing damage to transmission infrastructure, resulting in longer, more frequent power disruptions and costly repairs.

With these challenges in mind, Wellington’s private climate investing team has been researching innovations in grid technology that represent near-term solutions for grid improvements and resilience. We have seen promising software and hardware innovations designed to enhance the capacity of transmission lines, alleviate transmission-line congestion, ensure supply consistency, and minimize vulnerabilities. Of particular interest to us are improved conductors capable of carrying more electricity across high-voltage transmission powerlines. This technology may be a key to strengthening one of the weakest links in the global energy transition: high-voltage grids.

Strains on the existing transmission grid are projected to worsen

Grid planners expect US electricity demand to grow by nearly 5% per year for the next five years,1 as thermal load (the amount of energy required to maintain a building’s internal temperature), electrification of transportation systems, and build-out of large industrial and data center facilities drive consumption upward. Globally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that reaching national energy-demand needs and decarbonization goals will require the addition or refurbishment of 80 million kilometers of grid lines by 2040 or “the equivalent of the entire existing global grid.”2 Figure 1 shows the IEA’s expected increase in long-term global power consumption.

Figure 1
Energy demand may more than double by 2050

Current approaches are insufficient for closing the energy demand gap

Many countries, including the US, are unprepared to meet surging energy demand. During periods of peak usage, now-aging transmission systems reach their physical limits on a regular basis. In response to the increasing energy demand and limitations of the existing grid, US utilities are planning considerable capital expenditure for transmission line build-outs and upgrades, with over US$64 billion in outlays expected in the next two years alone.3 These industry dynamics suggest increased rate-base growth and transmission-related capital expenditure at investor-owned utilities. The expense and complexity of upgrading, expanding, and hardening the US grid are substantial and can require careful collaboration with state-level regulators, however, there are a number of issues with current approaches.

Problems with existing solutions
Building new transmission lines in the US can be difficult and may take decades to complete given hurdles associated with siting and permitting new rights of way. Most of the transmission lines that crisscross the US were built between the 1960s and 1980s, with fewer and fewer lines added since. Grid Strategies has reported that during the second half of the 2010s, the US installed an average of just 645 miles of new high-voltage transmission lines per year, down from 1,700 miles per year during the first half of the decade.4 Figure 2 shows this ongoing year-over-year decline, with just 55 miles of new lines constructed in 2023. Increasing costs, lengthy planning and permitting cycles, along with inter-regional connectivity and regulatory practices, have likely hampered the nationwide high-voltage transmission-grid build-out.

In addition, even with upgrades of existing lines, when done today with standard technology, there are often costly replacements of necessary steel and concrete structures, as required clearances need to be maintained despite the heavier weight of higher-voltage conductors. This can be especially challenging in wildfire-prone areas. These pricey rebuilds, which include extensive design, labor, and regulatory costs — beyond the capital costs of the project — are generally passed along to consumers in the form of higher electricity bills, causing energy price inflation.

Figure 2
Addition of high-voltage transmission lines has slowed

Problems with new renewables (for now)
While a diverse mix of renewable resources can be part of reliable electric grids, large additions of intermittent, and often geographically dispersed, renewable power capacity without a corresponding investment in transmission solutions can be problematic. For example, this bottleneck is a key cause of the lengthy timelines required interconnecting new power plants with existing grid infrastructure. According to BloombergNEF, at least 3,000 gigawatts (GW) of renewable power are waiting in grid-connection queues, with average interconnection studies taking between two and seven years to complete.5 In addition, without investment in transmission assets, the resulting grid congestion may require utilities to pay renewables projects to curtail electricity exports to the grid. In 2022 alone, US utilities paid power generators US$20.8 billion –– a jump of 56%, from US$13.3 billion the year before.6 These rising costs are often passed directly on to consumers.

Advanced conductors and other solutions may be key

Reconductoring with advanced conductors can represent a quicker, simpler alternative to new line installments. Advanced conductors, which feature carbon-composite cores rather than standard steel-core conductors, have key material and electrical properties that could potentially enable 200% – 300% capacity growth without having to create new rights of way or build new towers. They accomplish this by simply replacing the old conductors with new ones.7 These new conductors can also offer improved strength at elevated temperatures and less sagging than older-generation steel-core products, which helps mitigate wildfire risk from powerlines touching dry vegetation.

An analysis by Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) found that reconductoring can help to meet over 80% of the new US interzonal transmission needs to reach over 90% clean electricity by 2035, given planned transmission build-out.8 PNAS’s study also found that the combination of lower spending on expanding transmission and decreased curtailment of renewable energy assets translates to US$85 billion of savings in system cost by 2035 and US$180 billion in savings by 2050. Unlike earlier versions of this technology, today’s newer, more advanced conductors are also fully compatible with standard installation practices, which is helping to accelerate adoption. Given their various potential benefits and track record of sufficient deployments, which illustrate the efficacy of the technology, carbon-composite-core conductors can represent an attractive near-term opportunity for US grid operators.

High-temperature superconductors (HTS) have also been considered by utilities as a potential solution, which could provide a fivefold to tenfold capacity increase for gridlines. This technology, however, is more nascent and lacks commercial deployments to date. In addition, challenges exist with installation and utility maintenance processes, which can be difficult to change.

In 2024, after monitoring leading incumbents and potential private-market disruptors, we led a Series B raise in TS Conductor, an advanced-conductor company based in California. Also participating in the raise were utility industry strategics, including National Grid, Quanta Services, and NextEra. TS Conductor’s technology is in commercial deployment today and is engineered to facilitate easier installation relative to other advanced conductors due to design features of its proprietary carbon composite core.

Learn more about TS Conductor and see a complete list of Wellington’s investments across private markets.

Closing thoughts

We believe that amid growing strains on the energy grid, existing transmission capacity and energy supply are key limitations, exacerbated by climate-related risks. Traditional solutions like building new transmission lines are often slow and costly, and adding new renewables without commensurate transmission investment can exacerbate existing grid congestion. Innovations in grid technology, such as advanced conductors with carbon composite cores, offer feasible near-term solutions that can enhance capacity and provide substantial cost savings. We continue to research the reconductoring space, which we believe may have significant addressable markets, given the potential for adoption by US and global utilities.

1“US electricity load growth forecast jumps 81% led by data centers, industry: Grid Strategies,” UtilityDive, 13 December 2023. | 2Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions, International Energy Agency, October 2023. | 3Investor presentation, MYR Group, March 2024. | 4John D. Wilson and Zach Zimmerman, “The era of flat power demand is over,” Grid Strategies and the Clean Grid Initiative, December 2023. | 5New Energy Outlook 2024, BloombergNEF, 2024. | 6“US grid congestion costs jumped 56% to US$20.8 B in 2022: Report,” Utility Dive, July 2023. | 7TS Conductor, tsconductor.com/product-details. | 8Emilia Chojkiewicz, et al., “Accelerating transmission capacity expansion by using advanced conductors in existing right-of-way.” PNAS. 23 September 2024.

Experts

xie-jenny-08394
Venture Associate, Private Climate Investing

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