Switzerland, Intermediary

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When does duration work as an effective hedging tool?

Manhattan landscape over Empire State building.

Scenario 1

In the fourth quarter of 2022, concerns about high inflation persisted, and markets anticipated the US fed funds rate to hit 5 – 5.25%. This suggested that inflation would likely stay high, prompting the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep raising interest rates until inflation returned to its 2% target.

Investment team’s rationale2

During the summer of 2022, we found value in owning BB’s, compared to BBB’s. However, between September and November 2022, given the backdrop of spread compression between BBB’s and BB’s, we believed we could achieve similar levels of upside by owning BBB’s. We did not believe that the relative spread between the two quality tiers would tighten much further. Additionally, we felt owning BBB’s — instead of BB’s — would help us mitigate downside risk if the spread relationship between BBB’s and BB’s reverted to typical levels. We rotated approximately three years of spread duration from BB to BBB in this relative value trade. The trade performed well, with BBB’s having compressed more than BB’s as the credit spread relationship normalised.1

Scenario 2

In early 2023, the market grew optimistic around falling inflation and signalling that the Fed planned a significant rate-cutting cycle from 4.5% in February.

Investment team’s rationale2

We did not view Treasuries as an attractive hedge, because the 200 bps of rate cuts were already reflected in the price. To generate excess returns investing in intermediate Treasuries relative to cash, which was approaching 5% at the time, the Fed would have to cut interest rates to 3% in the next two years. However, if economic and inflation data remained strong and the Fed opted not to cut rates, owning intermediate Treasuries could result in a negative principal return. In this scenario, we did not view owning intermediate Treasuries as a strong risk-reward trade-off; so, we reduced our duration substantially.2 As data surprised on the upside, two-year Treasury yields rose by 100 bps over a four-week period.1